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0	Again, that’s not a forecast, I’ve made a hypothesis, which would imply slower improvement in unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Conclusion To sum up, none of us, obviously, can see the future, and instead we shall have to monitor incoming data closely for evidence of any shifts in recent productivity trends.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The combination of a commitment to condition liftoff on the sustained achievement of our employment and inflation objectives with yield curve caps targeted at the same horizon has the potential to work well in many circumstances.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	One of Dick Porter's many contributions was to develop a monetary approach to forecasting inflation at medium-term horizons.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, some participants noted that the recent rise in the prices of oil and other commodities, as well as increases in import prices stemming from the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, could boost inflation pressures.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Housing activity showed signs of dropping off from peak levels during the latter part of the summer, but the decline in mortgage rates this fall produced an upturn in several indicators of demand for single-family housing, including a rebound in a survey index of homebuying conditions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Putting It All Together I would now like to step back and consider the relative contributions to the trade deficit of each of the explanations I have discussed, as shown in figure 6.7 To the extent that the contributions of these shocks are reasonably well measured by the macroeconomic model simulations, the most important message I draw from them is that no single factor constitutes a dominant explanation of the deterioration in the U.S. current account balance.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Productivity accelerated.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Of course, we’re ready to provide information that Congress needs to evaluate the Fed’s decisionmaking, in monetary policy and elsewhere.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	To the extent the global economy is weak and the United States is strong, it’ll—we’ll wind up, you know, we’ll wind up exporting some of our demand through, through imports rather than having, having a lot of exports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low, while survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Greater rates of productivity growth in the United States, compared with still-subdued rates abroad, have apparently engendered comparable differences in risk-adjusted expected rates of return and hence in the demand for U.S.-based investment assets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Whether one looks at trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratios, equity risk premiums, or option prices, there is little basis for arguing that markets show excessive optimism about future returns.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	But I think that that’s a prudent move, to move in a gradual way to remove Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL accommodation, with unemployment now—and not only, I should say, the unemployment rate, but I think any indicator of labor market performance and tightness that you could look at, whether it’s household perceptions of the availability of jobs, difficulty that firms report in hiring workers, the rate at which workers are quitting their jobs, the rate of job openings, all of these indicators do signal a tight labor market.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Higher productivity is unambiguously good.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months, but the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In contrast, M3 growth slowed considerably in April after a robust March advance.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	As a case in point, the increase in the transparency of U.S. monetary policy over the past two decades has been quite significant.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Another example of deficit targets comes from the balanced-budget requirements of the states, which can be viewed as deficit targets with the target set at zero.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	During most of the recent episode, monetary policy broadly followed the Taylor Rule prescription, while holding the nominal federal funds rate about unchanged.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Operating Strategies and the FOMC Meeting Now that we appreciate the challenging nature of monetary policy, we are ready to develop a strategy for implementing open market operations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In contrast, a few participants cautioned that, despite increases in market-based measures of inflation compensation in recent months and the stabilization of some survey measures of inflation expectations, the levels of these indicators remained too low to be consistent with the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Stock prices and existing home sales are somewhat correlated, a not altogether unexpected result, because each is affected by interest rates and presumably the gains from each help finance the other.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It will include all data relevant to our dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The staff's forecast for core PCE price inflation this year was revised down a little in response to recent data.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Consider our estimates of real economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt, agency MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But this belief will persist only as long as we on the Federal Open Market Committee continue to ratify the publicâ€™s expectations that inflation will remain low and stable.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	On balance, however, the members generally believed that prospective trends in overall economic activity and the persistence of strong competitive pressures in most markets, including the effects of foreign competition, were likely in the context of now firmly embedded expectations of low inflation to moderate any tendency for price inflation to accelerate over the year ahead.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, in my judgment, reliance on these two approaches is not symmetric; instead, the forecast-based approach has become increasingly dominant in the monetary policymaking of leading central banks.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, reports from a couple of Districts indicated that the agricultural sector was still weak, with low commodity prices continuing to put financial pressure on farm-related businesses.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	We have not focused on whether we meet the liftoff test, because we don’t meet the liftoff test now because we’re not at maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Readings on consumer price inflation had picked up somewhat mainly because of increases in oil and gasoline prices earlier in the year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I think we all agree that the economy is making progress, that we are close to an unemployment rate that is one that’s sustainable in the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Productivity accelerated.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	She showed there some so-called optimal policy rules that come from trying to get the best possible outcomes from our quantitative econometric models, and what you see, if you look at that, is that the best possible outcomes, assuming perfect certainty, assuming perfect foresight—very unrealistic assumptions—still involve inflation staying quite close to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Moreover, if, as some members thought likely, productivity growth slowed as employment picked up, the result could be reductions in slack accompanied by higher unit labor costs and associated pressures on prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But before I comment on productivity, I'd like to begin with a review of recent economic developments.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Members saw the persistence of a relatively vigorous expansion in overall economic activity as a likely prospect in the context of continuing stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, accommodative financial conditions, growing business optimism, favorable consumer sentiment, and robust increases in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So let me start with the question pertaining to exchange rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But, certainly, we’ve had a lot of years in which interest rates have been low.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Federal Reserve and ECB Framework Reviews The monetary policy framework reviews conducted by the Federal Reserve and the ECB provide another example of monetary policy correlation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nonetheless, the reported rise in employment of temporary workers in recent months could presage a broader increase in job growth and thus was a welcome development.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Thus, reducing vacancies from an extremely high level to a lower (but still strong) level has a relatively limited effect on hiring and on unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Although members generally saw little risk that maintaining very low short-term interest rates could raise inflation expectations or create instability in asset markets, they noted that it was important to remain alert to these risks.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Most other interest rates in short-term markets were little changed over the period.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	That should drive productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	I would further say that I think it’s important to emphasize that we’re not going to mechanically take the interest rate projections that participants provide and just build policy off of that.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Moreover, the recent relatively low monthly readings on core inflation and modest wage pressures, at least by some measures, suggested that some slack remained in resource utilization.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The external sector was projected to continue to support domestic economic activity throughout the forecast period.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Despite the prevalence and importance of committees in modern central banking, the role of committees in the formulation of policy has not attracted nearly as much academic attention as has the research on monetary policy rules.3 The literature on monetary policy rules stretches back to at least Adam Smith and includes important contributions from David Ricardo, Knut Wicksell, and Milton Friedman.More recently, John Taylor has moved the research agenda forward with his eponymous rule, and a large number of academic papers have been written examining the effectiveness and robustness of policy rules.4 In contrast, as noted, study of the role of committees in making monetary policy has been fairly light, notwithstanding the insightful work of Alan Blinder and others.5 Committees and rules may appear to be in opposition as approaches to policymaking.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	As a consequence of these higher real interest rates, the ratio of net worth to income for the average household is already lower than it was earlier this year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But, I would say, overall, we’re trying to sustain the expansion and keep, you know, close to our statutory goals, which are maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If independence is also defined in terms of assuring the ability and commitment of the central bank to achieve price stability, this commitment can be protected by an explicit price stability mandate from the government.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And then, what the statement emphasizes, and this is the same language we used in December and January, we used the language especially if inflation is running below our 2 percent objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	While numerous contacts reported generally disappointing holiday sales in an environment of atypically large and widespread discounting, a surge in motor vehicle sales in December fostered by aggressive sales incentives and some pickup in retail sales late in the holiday season helped to sustain moderate overall growth in consumer spending through the year-end.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Housing starts and the demand for new homes had declined further, house prices in many parts of the country were falling faster than they had towards the end of 2007, and inventories of unsold homes remained quite elevated.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment; these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Because economic downturns typically result in even greater uncertainty about asset values, such episodes may involve an adverse feedback loop whereby financial disruptions cause investment and consumer spending to decline, which, in turn, causes economic activity to contract.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Some restraint on aggregate demand would come from other sectors of the economy--notably government spending, net exports, housing, and perhaps business inventories.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	First, with more complete information available, markets will price financial assets more efficiently.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	It is not a Taylor rule but it has the same feature that it relates policy to observables in the economy, such as unemployment and inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Committee Policy Action Members viewed the information on U. S. economic activity received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that the economy had been expanding moderately and generally agreed that the economic outlook was broadly similar to that at the time of their March meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two coequal objectives of maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in February and has been at or near half-century lows for almost two years.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A couple of participants pointed to the decline in credit spreads to relatively low levels by historical standards; one of these participants noted the risk of either a sharp rise in spreads, which could have negative repercussions for aggregate demand, or a continuation of the decline in spreads, which could undermine financial stability over time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Strong fundamentals, including low interest rates, wide profit margins, and a high level of liquid assets, were seen as supporting expenditures on software and equipment going forward.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Conclusion: The Challenge Facing Monetary Policy This analysis suggests that monetary policy does face a challenge--rebalancing aggregate supply and demand to contain the risk of higher inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In fact, applying a formal regression analysis to the full sample from 1989 to 2002, we found a number fairly close to this one, namely, a stock price multiplier for monetary policy of about 4.7.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And I’ll discuss the thinking behind today’s interest rate reduction and then turn to the path forward.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Nevertheless, the path of inflation is the biggest risk to my outlook.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Consumer sentiment remains solid, and the employment picture is positive.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	With unemployment still elevated and inflation below the Committee’s longer-run objective, the Committee is continuing its highly accommodative policies.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Participants generally expected that, over the medium term, real economic activity would increase at a pace sufficient to lead to a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate toward levels consistent with the Committee's objective of maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	They remarked that a stronger dollar, weaker demand, and lower oil prices were factors likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead and observed that this meant that the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective would likely be further delayed.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting in June the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The lagged effects of the substantial easing in monetary policy this year and the fiscal stimulus measures already enacted into law were expected to buttress demand and economic recovery over the next year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	I shall endeavor to place this most unusual phenomenon in the context of the broader changes in our economy and, hopefully, explain why the value of education, especially to enhance advanced skills, is so vital to the future growth of our economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that would have adverse consequences for those workers and for the economy's potential level of output in the longer term.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflation rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	More broadly, however, weaker demand, especially in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic, has held down consumer prices, and overall, inflation is running well below our 2 percent longer-run objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The distortions in the markets I have reviewed do not appear all that large, given the stance of monetary policy, and should we experience much higher interest rates and softer asset prices our resilient markets and flexible economy probably could absorb such a shock.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The housing sector has fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	She showed there some so-called optimal policy rules that come from trying to get the best possible outcomes from our quantitative econometric models, and what you see, if you look at that, is that the best possible outcomes, assuming perfect certainty, assuming perfect foresight—very unrealistic assumptions—still involve inflation staying quite close to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Assisted by the whole array of market prices, entrepreneurs seek to identify the types of products and services that individuals will value, especially the added value placed on products and services that customers find better tailored to their particular needs, delivered in shorter time frames, or improved in quality.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Committee Policy Action Committee members saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Through this channel, the decline in inflation volatility should be reflected in a smaller inflation risk premium in nominal bond yields, which is exactly what is estimated in the Kim, Walsh, and Wei (2019) yield curve model (figure 4, "Term Premium Decomposition").	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	While these developments were positive, participants noted several factors that likely would continue to restrain the expansion in economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, some areas that were affected by the slowdown in the energy sector experienced house price declines or increases in mortgage delinquency rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

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