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2	My fellow governors and I routinely receive from our staff a translation of the term structure of Treasury yields into implied forward rates, volatility inferred from options prices, and paths for expected monetary policy action consistent with futures prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Indeed, CPI inflation does appear to have become more sensitive to import prices over time, both in the United States and in other OECD countries (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006).3 Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In contrast, some other participants judged that the economy had not yet reached maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Conclusion The United States productivity growth spurt, realized to a much lesser extent around the world, can be attributed largely to a combination of an investment boom and a technological revolution.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed much since last summer.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Similarly, I don't think we yet fully understand the role of Year 2000 preparations in either the late 1990s investment boom or the acceleration in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	This allows the economy to operate at a higher utilization rate without inflationary consequences, at least until the higher productivity is fully anticipated in wage bargaining or until productivity growth stops accelerating.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But, I would say, overall, we’re trying to sustain the expansion and keep, you know, close to our statutory goals, which are maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It will include all data relevant to our dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I think that keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Moreover, if declines in house prices were to damp consumption, that could feed back on employment and income, exerting additional restraint on the demand for housing.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, participants remarked that the actual rise in inflation was larger than anticipated, with the 12-month change in the PCE price index reaching 3.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The October SLOOS suggested that the recent slowdown in mortgage originations for home purchases was partly attributable to weaker demand.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Moreover, monetary policy actions addressed at a perceived bubble in one sector may have undesirable effects on other asset prices and the economy more generally.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	While overall employment conditions, the buildup of household net worth, and access to financing would bolster consumer expendi- tures, members also cited a number of limiting factors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Implications of Increases in Productivity Growth In the long run, the implications of increases in productivity growth rates are fairly obvious.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The broad index of the foreign exchange value of the dollar rose nearly 3 percent over the intermeeting period amid the rise in U. S. interest rates, market expectations that U. S. tax reform was becoming more likely, and foreign central bank actions and communications.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	You might ask: Does successful monetary policymaking really require all this additional knowledge?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, with longer-term interest rates already very low, there did not appear to be a need for enhanced forward guidance at this juncture or much scope for forward guidance to put additional downward pressure on yields.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	As a result, most market interest rates rose somewhat in the period after the November 16 meeting.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Several participants reported that business contacts had expressed growing concerns about the increase in their input costs and that there were signs that an increasing number of firms were seeking to pass on these higher costs to their customers in the form of higher prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Very low inflation and deflation pose qualitatively similar economic problems, though the magnitude of the associated costs can be expected to increase sharply as deflationary pressures intensify.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Fortunately, as we make monetary policy we have the advantage of several forecasts.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In contrast, changes in inflation rates in some services categories, such as shelter costs, tend to be more persistent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Monetary policy decisions are judgment calls, informed by forecasts and discussions about how the economy is likely to evolve, alternative possibilities, and potential responses to policy actions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Well, that’s—what’s happening there is the fact that the relationship between resource utilization, or unemployment, and inflation has just gotten weaker and weaker over the years.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In the view of a number of members, rapid growth of the monetary aggregates, though it had slowed very recently, was a further indication that financial conditions were not restraining economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Stock prices in the basic materials and industrial sectors underperformed the broader market, reportedly reflecting an increase in trade tensions with China.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	At the same time, however, the staff increased the growth rate forecast for 2006 to reflect the boost to economic activity from the rebuilding effort.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Progress at Home and Abroad Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad was considerable.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	M2 growth dropped in the second quarter and remained modest in July, consistent with moderating growth of nominal income and rising opportunity cost.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending, especially if house prices declined significantly.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, growth of mortgage loans on banks' books slowed somewhat in the first half of this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Such second-round effects are likely to be quite limited as long as the rise in the relative price of energy does not lead to a rise in long-run inflation expectations, as has largely been the case in the recent period (figure 1).	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	August 26, 2022 Monetary Policy and Price Stability Chair Jerome H. Powell At â€œReassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,â€ an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming Share Watch Live Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants' Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Even so, the growth rate of the ECI did not return to the levels experienced before 2008.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	These indicators suggested that the financial system was fairly resilient, as did the absence of a significant increase in funding stresses or margin calls earlier this year when prices of risky assets fell and volatility rose sharply.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With unemployment still elevated and inflation below the Committee’s longer-run objective, the Committee is continuing its highly accommodative policies.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In hindsight, the paths of inflation, real output, stock prices and exchange rates may have seemed preordained, but no such insight existed as we experienced it at the time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The cutback in residential construction has directly reduced the annual rate of U.S. economic growth about 3/4 percentage point on average over the past year and a half.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the 1988-90 period, the behavior of crude oil prices, unemployment, and the exchange rate were not especially surprising or anomalous.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was below 2 percent in July.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, a few participants expressed concern that higher household wealth might not translate into greater consumer spending, cautioning that household income growth remained slow, that households might not treat the additions to wealth arising from recent equity price increases as lasting, or that households' scope to extract housing equity for the purpose of increasing their expenditures was less than in the past.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Faster productivity growth was among the factors that boosted equity valuations	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Of the 1,700 Washington employees, roughly 250 are Ph.D. economists, the majority of whom support the Board's monetary policy responsibilities.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But speculators rarely succeed in dislodging an exchange rate that is firmly rooted in compatible policies and cost structures.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, some areas that were affected by the slowdown in the energy sector experienced house price declines or increases in mortgage delinquency rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	These decisions can then push up prices even more and make inflation harder to get under control.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The tendency may be natural to allow more flexibility when central banks are focused on inflation maintenance than when they seek inflation reduction.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	We think that the economy will need highly accommodative monetary policy and the use of our tools for an extended period.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Clearly, businesses regarded such investments as highly profitable, and they appeared to be leading to gains in productivity that in turn were helping to offset rising compensation and to maintain profit margins in highly competitive markets.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	An unexpectedly sharp increase in wages or inflation could tell you that you’re reaching those points.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	That should gradually return the economy to full utilization of its resources, while inflation remains subdued.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In fact, it’s already—it’s already understood, I think, that—that there’s more—even though we’re at 3½ percent unemployment, there’s actually more slack out there, in a sense.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And what it is is, it’s an expression of the thinking about individual Committee members about appropriate monetary policy and the path of the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Japan enjoyed effective price stability through most of the 1980s.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Most major indexes of equity prices moved up sharply on the bullish economic reports.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In discussing the effect of labor market conditions on inflation, a number of participants expressed skepticism about recent studies suggesting that long-term unemployment provides less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than short-term unemployment does.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	This observation raises the question of why, in some cases, the putative productivity benefits of investments in new technologies do not occur until years after those investments are made.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So let me start with the question pertaining to exchange rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Proponents of this strategy sometimes describe this approach as reducing inflation cycle-to-cycle or describe the economy as being one recession from price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Their key finding, illustrated in figure 3, is that Federal Reserve policy rate surprises attributed to stronger U.S. growth generally have only moderate spillovers to EM financial conditions, whereas U.S. policy rate changes attributed to U.S. inflationary pressures trigger more substantial spillovers to EM financial conditions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	A couple of participants remarked that the very low levels of inventories would likely be a factor supporting increases in production as demand continued to recover.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Nonetheless, participants noted a risk that the drop-back in inflation could be slower or more limited than the Committee would find desirable since resource utilization was currently tight and the pickup in price increases had been broadly based rather than being limited to a few specific sectors that could be linked to energy costs.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Notwithstanding the shift toward monetary policy committees, each central bank and its institutional structure reflects the politics and culture of the country that it serves (or "countries" in the case of the European Central Bank).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Household mortgage debt was expected to expand at a reduced rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting softer home prices and declining home sales, as well as a tightening in credit conditions for some borrowers.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In such an environment, a central bank mandated to pursue price stability can be flexible according to the circumstances, while one with a numerical target may need to obtain formal modification of its objectives.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Still, if aggregate demand and potential aggregate supply follow the paths that I outlined earlier, the slack in resource utilization should diminish, unit labor costs should begin to move higher, and the underlying rate of inflation should stabilize.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Consumer price inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, restrained in part by earlier decreases in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Energy prices were moderating noticeably in response to lower worldwide demand, and core price inflation remained subdued.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than substantial adverse ones.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The expansion of M2 had declined substantially since late spring, apparently in part as a result of the widening opportunity costs of holding assets in M2 stemming from higher market interest rates and possibly also from slackening growth in household incomes.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In December 1996, before my time at the Board, John Campbell of Harvard and Robert Shiller of Yale made a presentation at the Fed, in which they used dividend-price ratios and related measures to argue that the stock market was overvalued.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	So negative interest rates is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Home prices continued to rise briskly.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Although higher energy and other costs had the potential to add to inflation pressure, core inflation had been relatively low in the preceding few months and longer-term inflation expectations remained contained.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Several participants noted the increase in agricultural crop prices over 2020 and the associated improvement in farm revenues.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	We said that we expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomesâ€”as well as our maximum-employment mandateâ€”are achieved, and also that we expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Notably, if people feel sure that inflation will remain well controlled, they will be more restrained in their wage-setting and pricing behavior, which (in something of a virtuous circle) makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to confirm their expectations by keeping inflation low.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Therefore, monetary policy in Japan might be affected not only by views about how such policies would affect macroeconomic performance, for given fiscal policies, but also by views about how fiscal policy might adjust to monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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