label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
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0 | In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Compared with the baseline, the disruption to economic activity was more severe and protracted in this scenario, with real GDP and inflation lower and the unemployment rate higher by the end of the medium-term projection. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As students of economics, you may already know that the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy to support a strong and stable economy in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The members viewed the outlook for core price inflation as still quite benign, largely reflecting the ample availability of labor and other producer resources to accommodate rising economic activity and the favorable prospects for further robust growth in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And so what that means is the Federal Reserve cannot add monetary accommodation by cutting short-term interest rates, the usual approach. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Independence and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was established as an independent central bank--although, at the time, it was given no clear concept of its role in the conduct of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In response to evidence of a slowdown in economic activity and a rapid waning of inflationary pressures, central banks around the world eased policy sharply. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Instead, an upturn in foreign economic activity would depend more on recovery in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Theory also teaches that the increase in the rate of return on capital--even if generated by a rise in the growth rate of technical change--ultimately requires an increase in real market interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Both total and core inflation were projected to move up slightly next year, as the low readings early this year were expected to be transitory, but nevertheless to continue to run below 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The labor market improved in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And, in particular, I do personally believe that the slowdown is at least partly temporary, and that we’ll see greater growth going forward. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members focused on the disparate forces that continued to shape trends in economic activity, notably the persist- ence of considerable strength in private domestic spending and the damping influences stemming from foreign economic developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent with any set of relative social weights on inflation and unemployment | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Global factors may have put downward pressure on term premiums because of anxiety about the foreign outlook, which may have increased demand for U.S. assets, or because low rates abroad have depressed U.S. term premiums through a global portfolio balance channel.5 And real rates are quite low globally, reflecting the step-down of productivity growth over the past 10 years as well as shifts in savings and investment demand due to demographic change.6 The Core of the Financial System Is Much Stronger Before turning to the interplay between low rates and the financial system, I will simply point out that both improved risk management at the largest, most systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and stronger regulation have made the core of the system much stronger and more resilient than before the crisis.7 The SIFIs have more stable funding, hold much more capital and liquidity, are more conscious of their risks, and are far more resolvable should they fail. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And, of course, despite the improvements seen in the May jobs report, the unemployment rate, at 13.3 percent, remains historically high. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because inflation expectations are now more firmly tied down, surges and declines in energy prices do not significantly affect core inflation and thus do not force a policy response to inflation to the extent they did three decades ago. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | For example, the Stock-Watson indicator and other indicators based on interest rates and spreads signaled the 1990-91 recession very weakly and rather late. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The release this year and last of mortgage price data gathered under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) has highlighted a different, but potentially related, concern about access to credit on equal terms. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The associated declines in wealth could amplify the effects on economic activity, which could have further knock-on effects on financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Core measures of price inflation had moved up over recent quarters and particularly so over the last few months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The changes to the policy statement that we made over the past few FOMC meetings bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations." | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was lower than the staff expected at the time of the November meeting, and the staff forecast anticipated that core PCE prices would rise a bit more slowly in 2011 and 2012 than previously projected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | I should note that growth itself does not cause inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | On balance, core consumer price inflation was projected to remain subdued and quite possibly edge lower. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | When the government runs deficits, it siphons off private savings (reducing national saving), leaving less available for capital investment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Over the same period, demand for auto loans reportedly strengthened further at many banks. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Also, the Committee will pay close attention to measures of inflation expectations to ensure that those expectations remain well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | An understanding of a likely long-run level of the equilibrium real rate is useful, even though the level is not directly observable, because it provides a general sense of the level that would, over that longer period, allow aggregate supply and demand to move into balance, given the evaluation of secular forces such as productivity and population growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants noted that the economic information received since the last meeting pointed to a somewhat more favorable outlook regarding both inflation and economic growth than they had earlier anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | These inferences are supported by some empirical evidence.10 On the other hand, the increased liquidity of home equity may lead consumer spending to respond more than in past years to changes in the values of their homes; some evidence does suggest that the correlation of consumption and house prices is higher in countries, like the United States, that have more sophisticated mortgage markets (Calza, Monacelli, and Stracca, 2007). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Monetary policy has an ambiguous effect on trade imbalances. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This automatically pushes up domestic interest rates to support the currency. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But it could be that if interest rates rise quickly, for example, that we would be in a situation of not giving remittances to the Treasury for a couple of years, and that would create problems, no doubt, for the Fed in terms of congressional response. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The asset purchases are about creating some near-term momentum in the economy, trying to strengthen growth and job creation in the near term, and the increases in the federal funds rate target, when they ultimately occur, are about reducing accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Federal Reserve and ECB Framework Reviews The monetary policy framework reviews conducted by the Federal Reserve and the ECB provide another example of monetary policy correlation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A considerable literature suggests that successful monetary policies should stabilize, or "anchor," inflation expectations so as to prevent them from becoming a source of instability in their own right (Goodfriend, 1993; Evans and Honkapohja, 2003). | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The recent information on inflation was seen as disappointing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Measures of inflation compensation were little changed on net. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Alternatively, monetary policy could convert the temporary disinflationary effect into a permanent one. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Committee reiterated, however, that purchases were not on a preset course, and that its decisions about the pace of purchases would remain contingent on its outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the textbook world of Mundell-Fleming, unanticipated monetary ease leads to lower interest rates, a drop in the home currency's value, and a stimulus to net exports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The drop in demand leads, in turn, to a decline in actual output relative to its potential, that is, the level of output that the economy can produce at the maximum sustainable level of employment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Nonetheless, if the influence of globalization on inflation is as substantial as many claim, we might have expected the standard model to have had difficulty in predicting recent inflation trends. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Table 2 Distribution of Employment and of Displaced Workers by Industry Category Industry Employment Displaced Workers Restructuring 23.1 42.2 Nonrestructuring 76.9 57.8 Total 100 100 Source: Displaced Worker Supplement to the CPS. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Another reason for the reliance on judgment in the forecasting process is the practical requirement that the forecast for inflation be consistent with the staff's overall view of the economy, including the forecasts for key economic variables such as wages, interest rates, and consumption spending. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The slowing economy, together with rising interest rates, was in turn a major factor in precipitating the stock market crash. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At this point, for me, it comes down to what the incoming data and other economic information will tell us about the outlook for inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Inflation averaging doesn't define how much above 2 percent is moderate and how long some value of elevated inflation should be tolerated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In these circumstances, domestic demand would need to decelerate considerably for growth to proceed at a sustainable pace. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, with tightening resource constraints indicating unsustainable growth, only tentative signs that growth might be slowing, and various factors that had been damping prices now turning around, all the members agreed on the need for a slight tightening at this meeting to raise the odds on containing inflation and forestalling the inflationary imbalances that would undercut the very favorable performance of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | That’s probably related to gas prices and also just stock prices to some extent for other people. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The asset purchases are about creating some near-term momentum in the economy, trying to strengthen growth and job creation in the near term, and the increases in the federal funds rate target, when they ultimately occur, are about reducing accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, with rising productivity and moderate wage gains likely continuing to help hold down unit labor costs, the outlook for subdued inflation remained promising, especially for the nearer term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | After taking account of both frictional and structural unemployment, what unemployment rate is roughly equivalent to the maximum level of employment that can be sustained in the longer run? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited; indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So tonight, I would like to take a few minutes to put this action in the broad context of the Fed’s mandate to promote the stable financial environment that will encourage economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although the initial offerings of these securities were well received, investor demand at the most recent sales was not as strong, a development consistent with the declines in the prices of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in its own right but also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | 1 The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Financing conditions in capital markets remained broadly accommodative, supported by low interest rates and high equity valuations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | An extreme version of this view is that bubbles probably do not exist--that rational market processes always price assets at their fundamental value. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So, up until the first week of October 2021, the story of high inflation being temporary was holding up, and the labor market improvements had slowed but were continuing. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And so what that means is the Federal Reserve cannot add monetary accommodation by cutting short-term interest rates, the usual approach. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With underlying inflation running below 2 percent for many years and COVID contributing to a further decline, it is important that monetary policy support inflation expectations that are consistent with inflation centered on 2 percent over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Still, core consumer price indices remained relatively damped and had risen only a little over the last year, especially when measured by the PCE chain-price index, and that suggested underlying price pressures remained largely contained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So, as you know, the ultimate focus that we have is on the real economy: maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Survey measures give us an idea of what the average household expects inflation to be in the coming years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In that vein, several participants noted that inflation expectations had been sensitive to incoming data and to communications regarding monetary policy over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Share prices of financial firms fell especially sharply, reportedly a reflection, in part, of concerns about exposures to subprime mortgages and about the effect of a potential slowdown in merger activity on operating profits. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Here's a wonderful game: Assume that the ECB governing council or the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee replaced the Federal Open Market Committee and made monetary policy in the United States--or vice versa. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While labor markets were anticipated to remain tight in the near term, participants expected labor demand and supply to come into better balance over time, helping to ease upward pressure on wages and prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | October 12, 2021 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting: Sustainable Economic Growth and Financial Stability in a Diverging, Decarbonizing, Digitizing, Indebted World, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.1 I regret that we are not meeting in person, but I look forward, as always, to a conversation with my good friend and one-time colleague Tim Adams. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In any case, the real federal funds rate is now lower than prior to the easings, at the same time that the unemployment rate is lower and projected growth higher than it was prior to the easings. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Rather, central banks have learned over the years that their policies should be devoted to fostering macroeconomic balance and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And those don’t—those, frankly, don’t carry significant implications in the long run for the—for inflation or for the American economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. " | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, the variance of GDP growth markedly lessened as inflation tumbled from its double-digit high in the early 1980s. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to about 2-1/2 percent in 2009 and 2010. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This is a tangible recent example of the need both to judge how the equilibrium real interest rate that is relevant for policy might have changed from a perceived long-run level and to set policy against the background of such an understanding. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some evidence exists that quantitative easing can stimulate the economy even when interest rates are near zero; see, for example, Christina Romer's (1992) discussion of the effects of increases in the money supply during the Great Depression in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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