label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
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0 | This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants judged that it would be appropriate to move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture expeditiously. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We had a 10 percent unemployment rate, and our congressional mandate is maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The current range readily encompassed the growth rate seen likely to be associated with the members' forecasts for economic activity and prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But a longer-term trend--slow productivity growth--helps explain why we don't think dramatic interest rate increases are required to move our federal funds rate target back to neutral. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Fed's credibility, earned over decades of low inflation, is a powerful policy tool that is critical to our long-term success. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Several participants commented that the factors that had contributed to low inflation during the previous expansion could again exert more downward pressure on inflation than expected. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With the latter displaying relative vigor, the value of domestic imports was likely to continue to exceed that of exports by a substantial margin, thereby tending to perpetuate the large current account deficits that had worrisome implications for the future. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | May 21, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York (via webcast) Share Accessible Keys for Video [Space Bar] toggles play/pause; [Right/Left Arrows] seeks the video forwards and back (5 sec ); [Up/Down Arrows] increase/decrease volume; [M] toggles mute on/off; [F] toggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11); The [Tab] key may be used in combination with the [Enter/Return] key to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The guidance on asset purchases, introduced in December, commits us to increasing our holdings of securities at least at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The October SLOOS suggested that the recent slowdown in mortgage originations for home purchases was partly attributable to weaker demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But my colleagues and I continue to believe that the factors that are responsible this year for holding inflation down are likely to prove transitory. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Certainly, if we are to remain preeminent in transforming knowledge into economic value, the U.S. system of higher education must remain the world's leader in generating scientific and technological breakthroughs and in preparing workers to meet the evolving demands for skilled labor. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And obviously there are benefits from a strong economy to every household in the economy, including savers, from having a better job market and a more secure economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the circumstances, most members endorsed a proposal to delete as no longer necessary the previous summary statement relating to the risks to growth and inflation taken together. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A few participants judged that while the labor market was close to full employment, some margins of slack remained; these participants pointed to the employment-to-population ratio or the labor force participation rate for prime-age workers, which remained below pre-recession levels, as well as the absence to date of clear signs of a pickup in aggregate wage growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Such a directive would imply that any tightening should be implemented promptly if developments were perceived as pointing to rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Household spending was projected to grow at a fairly solid rate, supported by higher employment and somewhat lower energy prices but damped somewhat by lessened stimulus from gains in wealth and the need for households to rebuild savings. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It isn’t the kind of inflation that’s spread broadly across the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although personally I have no doubt that quantification of the price stability objective is fully consistent with the current dual mandate, I also appreciate the delicate issues of communication raised by such a change. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In agriculture, depressed levels of crop prices and weak global demand continued to weaken farm income. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Here is where unit labor costs, or specifically the relationship between productivity growth and wage increases, would come into play. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Labor force participation isn't growing as much as one would expect with the hot job market, but apparently it's growing enough to keep the job creation machine humming. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And then we’ll look to have that just running in the background and have—and have the interest rates, again, be the active tool of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To be sure, our main tool, monetary policy, is a blunt instrument that cannot be targeted at individual industries or regions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, as investors responded to strong second-quarter earnings reports and indications that the economy may be stabilizing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Output was forecast to expand at a rate a little above the staff's estimate of its potential rate of growth in 2019 through 2021 and then to slow to a pace slightly below potential output growth in 2022. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Williamson cited Hayek's 1945 paper, along with Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations from the eighteenth century, as forming the core of a "venerated tradition in economics" of studying the notion of "spontaneous order" arising from a freely operating market system.9 How does Hayek's case for the price system fit in alongside the other work that Williamson mentioned? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although participants had revised downward their projections for growth since their previous forecasts in June, they continued to anticipate that economic growth would pick up and the unemployment rate would decline gradually through 2014. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Given recent developments, the medium-term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And that is a statement about productivity growth, which has been pretty disappointing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And that is a statement about productivity growth, which has been pretty disappointing. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Yet as research has repeatedly demonstrated, these sorts of fundamentals only explain a small part of the variation in the prices of assets such as equities, long-term Treasury securities, and corporate bonds. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I don’t really think asset prices themselves represent a significant threat to financial stability, and that’s because households are in good shape financially than they have been. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | You know, monetary policy is a forward-looking exercise, and I’m going to—I’m just going to stick with that. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Because equity valuations may pose asymmetric risks to the economic forecast, the implied optimal responses of policy to changes in asset prices may be nonlinear. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, the resulting robust gains in labor productivity have been well ahead of compensation growth and have dramatically boosted corporate profits. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As long as the Federal Reserve is required to set and report ranges for money and debt growth, it should update them as appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Our current framework for implementing monetary policy is working very well. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Maintaining low inflation rates reduces the levels of future uncertainties and, hence, increases the scope of investment opportunities. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people to seek the types of education and training that will meet the demands of work in the twenty-first century. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the end, they concurred that the statement should note that economic growth had rebounded in the current quarter but that it appeared likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As was highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure likely understates the extent of unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the unemployment rate by about 3 percentage points. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Demand-pull inflation pressures from emerging-market economies abroad appeared to be continuing, and anecdotal reports from business contacts suggested greater willingness domestically to pass rising costs through to prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In fact, it’s already—it’s already understood, I think, that—that there’s more—even though we’re at 3½ percent unemployment, there’s actually more slack out there, in a sense. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2020 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York Share Thank you to the conference organizers for inviting me here to discuss what former Chair Bernanke has famously referred to as a "hall of mirrors" problem: a situation in which a central bank's reaction function and financial market prices interact in economically suboptimal and potentially destabilizing ways.1 In my remarks today, I will lay out the way I think about the interplay between financial markets and monetary policy, with a focus on how I myself seek to integrate noisy but often correlated signals about the economy that I glean from models, surveys, and financial markets.2 Three Observations I begin with three unobjectionable observations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Were we to introduce an interest rate rule, how would we judge the meaning of a rule that posits a rate far above or below the current rate? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180, 000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year, but they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And you know, we haven’t yet—we just touched 2 percent core inflation, to pick one measure—just touched it for a few months, and then we’ve fallen back. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Crude oil prices continued to rise, reaching record levels in nominal terms over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nowhere, however, is the challenge to monetary policymakers greater than in emerging economies around the world. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | More recently, with inflation under control, overheating has shown up in the form of financial excess. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A few participants pointed to continued strong growth in multifamily construction, although the limited pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that activity could slow in 2015. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This policy preference was based on expectations of growth in business activity at a pace averaging in the vicinity of the economy's potential, a perception among the members that the risks to such an outlook were more balanced than earlier, and anticipations that under these circumstances inflation would remain constrained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Employment continued to expand unevenly, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A main reason I expect this outcome is simply the fact that the very low inflation readings during last spring's deep economic contraction will drop from the usual calculation of 12-month price changes. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Looking ahead, some growth in overall consumer spending appeared likely in association with the now more firmly entrenched economic expansion. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Three Asset-Price-Bust Episodes Let us first examine the U.K. recession of 1974. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The faster pace of real GDP growth was expected to be supported by an easing in the restraint from changes in fiscal policy, increases in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and a pickup in the rate of foreign economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Based on historical experience, it seems improbable that all of the large rise in multifactor productivity could be attributed to cyclical or transitory factors. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So let me talk about the coronavirus specifically, and then I’ll turn more to global growth more generally. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Flexible inflation averaging could bring some of the benefits of a formal average inflation targeting rule, but it would be simpler to communicate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It was generally agreed that developments relating to energy would continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the near term, including the passthrough or indirect effects of higher oil prices on core measures of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee saw no need for tightening policy in the near future. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Members generally agreed that, in light of some weaker-than-expected readings on measures of labor market conditions and in the absence of greater confidence about the inflation outlook, it would be prudent to wait for additional information bearing on the medium-term outlook before initiating the process of policy normalization. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Overall inflation was projected to remain subdued, with the staff's forecasts for headline and core inflation little changed from the previous projection. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Now, with inflation below 2 percent, I think it’s appropriate that the labor market be that tight. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In real terms, with a 2 percent inflation objective—that’s 1 percent in real terms. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, core inflation had been subdued in recent months and longer-run inflation expectations remained contained. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members recognized that from the standpoint of the level of real short-term interest rates, monetary policy could already be deemed to be fairly restrictive. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And maybe reducing their level of the natural rate of unemployment, which has been the trend. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Members referred, however, to a number of favorable factors that should continue to support at least moderate further growth in business investment, including the attractive pricing of and ongoing rapid technological improvements in computer and communications equipment and the wide availability of equity and debt financing on favorable terms to business firms. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | When governments resort to printing money to finance their spending, inflation rises and nominal assets lose their value. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In that regard, the prospective strength of demand pressures and related outlook for productivity were subject to a wide range of uncertainty, and there were reasons to believe that economic growth could well slow without any adjustment to policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The first is what to do about supply shocks, like large increases in oil prices, which tend to increase both inflation and unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On March 16, we launched a program to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in whatever amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Committee's accompanying statement indicated that economic growth had been quite strong so far this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, to the extent that more-rapid growth of productivity shows through to faster gains in nominal wages, there will be fewer instances in which nominal wages will be pressured to fall. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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