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0	Nonetheless, the leveling off in that disturbing trend is an encouraging sign of what we can achieve if we can maintain strong and flexible labor markets accompanied by low inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And I really don’t have much for you other than to say that they will be data dependent—that, over time, the stance of policy will be adjusted to try to keep the economy on a track where we see continuing progress toward achieving our goals of maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its June projections for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate as roughly in line with the average over the past 20 years.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	And it’s natural that if it can be employed that, just as monetary policy is doing a lot to try to June 15, 2016 stimulate growth, that fiscal policy should play a role.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	So the Committee estimates that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is 5.0 to 5.2.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	If inflation remains higher during the course of 2022, then we may already have met that test by the time we reach liftoff.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	On this path, unemployment would decline modestly below current estimates of the natural rate and remain there for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mimeo.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As technical change increases demand for skilled relative to unskilled labor, the unskilled workers must acquire new skills, find new jobs at lower relative wages, or become unemployed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Recent data on core consumer prices led the staff to mark down slightly its forecast for core PCE inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And we’d like to see that in the form of a series of declining monthly inflation readings—that’s what we’re looking for.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Retail energy prices were likely to retrace at least a portion of the post-hurricane increase, and consumer confidence should rebound.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Members saw the persistence of a relatively vigorous expansion in overall economic activity as a likely prospect in the context of continuing stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, accommodative financial conditions, growing business optimism, favorable consumer sentiment, and robust increases in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	the very shortest maturities, and with the additional tightening and deceleration in inflation that is expected over coming quarters, the entire real curve will soon move into positive territory.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, equity prices subsequently retraced some of the earlier declines as concerns about trade policy seemed to ease and corporate earnings reports for the first quarter of 2018 generally came in stronger than expected.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Some price increases had been noted; however, apart from the energy and health care sectors, price inflation had remained relatively subdued, evidently reflecting the combination of diminished growth in overall demand and strong competitive pressures in most markets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In the real world, there are two reasons why central bankers still prize credibility, even if it cannot be shown to reduce the costs of disinflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Some price increases had been noted	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Still, most members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's objectives.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	So there’s been a number of emerging markets—as you know, we’re suffering under the weight of declines in oil prices that are affecting their economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distributionâ€”for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or more crucial inputs; a poor cotton crop in the United States due to weather, which is driving up prices; and clogged ports and trucker shortages.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Some have been concerned that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury might be working at cross purposes today to the extent that reductions in the Treasury debt supply have lead to declines in longer-term Treasury rates at a time when monetary policy is aiming to slow the pace of economic activity to a more sustainable rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The jobs picture continues to be strong, with the unemployment rate near historic lows and with stronger wage gains.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) edged up, on net, remaining close to their pre-pandemic levels.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation; increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued,	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For many years, forecasters could assume a modest, but stable, trend productivity growth rate and fairly predictable growth in the labor force.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Total nonfarm payroll employment was reported to have decreased in September, consistent with a substantial increase in the number of people who reported themselves as being absent from work due to bad weather and with payroll declines in the hurricane-affected states of Texas and Florida.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	I mean, we—the—again, the relationship between slack in the economy and inflation is weak, has been weak.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	While the underlying demand for residential housing continued to be robust and government outlays evidently were rising, the expansion of consumer spending seemed to have slowed, and outlays for capital spending were still very sluggish in an environment of business uncertainty and pessimism.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the Committee's discussion of possible adjustments to policy during the intermeeting period, members agreed that the retention of an asymmetric directive toward tightening was consistent with their view that the risks remained biased toward higher inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	To quantify the importance of the shift in the balance of demand and supply and of the consequent change in the term premium, we can appeal to the research literature on the term structure of interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Actual or realized saving depends on the equilibrium values of the real interest rate and other economic variables.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	More broadly, however, weaker demand, especially in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic, has held down consumer prices, and overall, inflation is running well below our 2 percent longer-run objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, in the view of most members, the outlook for both economic activity and price pressures remained very uncertain, and thus the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Notably, if people feel sure that inflation will remain well controlled, they will be more restrained in their wage-setting and pricing behavior, which (in something of a virtuous circle) makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to confirm their expectations by keeping inflation low.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Those few members who expressed a preference for easing at this meeting believed that, with unit labor costs and inflation expectations contained, enough evidence of further weakness already existed to warrant an immediate action.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	There was a lot of pent-up demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Another clear attempt at political interference emerged in February 1988 when an undersecretary of the Treasury sent a letter to Federal Reserve officials urging them to ease monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the absence of such offsetting operations, a decrease in currency demand would raise the amount of reserves and hence lower the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005; Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In particular, investors noted that the Committee attributed some of the recent increase in inflation to transitory factors, retained its earlier balance of risks assessment, and reiterated its belief that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In contrast, some other participants judged that the economy had not yet reached maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	You know, stimulating aggregate demand is one thing, but where there’s a part of the economy that kind of will be resistant to that, you also need fiscal policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Median inflation in the nine countries likewise declined, averaging 9-1/2 percent in 1995-99 and 5 percent in 2000-04.Return to text 4.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Additionally, can one make any other generalizations concerning recessions that follow asset-price booms and busts and how they differ from other recessions?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	While overall employment conditions, the buildup of household net worth, and access to financing would bolster consumer expendi- tures, members also cited a number of limiting factors.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Private nonfarm payroll employment increased appreciably on balance over September and October.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Nevertheless, most participants agreed that, although the level of inventories of unsold homes that homebuilders desired was uncertain, the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For now, the Committee should remain particularly vigilant to incoming information bearing on the outlook for inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The staff also reported that in the leveraged loan market risk spreads had narrowed and nonprice terms had loosened further.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	This evaluation assumed continued sluggish growth in final demand during the period immediately ahead.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Indeed, the commitment to long-run price stability can afford the central bank some flexibility in employing its tools to address shorter-run economic issues.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Thus, I believe this description essentially characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and my own projection of inflation at a three-year horizon is equal to my assessment of the mandate-consistent inflation rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	It was observed that, after the early 1980s, the pass-through of energy prices into core inflation had been quite limited, suggesting that, in current circumstances, core inflation could stay relatively low and overall inflation would probably drop back if inflation expectations remained contained.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But, first, on inflation expectations, it is true that the breakevens from the inflation-adjusted—inflation-indexed bonds have come down.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Such a policy would clearly have near-term costs: It would slow the expansion in demand, damp the creation of new jobs, and keep inflation lower than it otherwise would be.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In our most recent monetary policy statementâ€”which was released following our January meetingâ€”we indicated that "with inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market," we expected that it would "soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To be sure, financial market signals are noisy, and day-to-day movements in asset prices are unlikely to tell us much about the cyclical or structural position of the economy, let alone r* and expected inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	and inflation rises slowly towards 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year; as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And, and that’s why we have adopted the flexible average inflation-targeting framework.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	An understanding of a likely long-run level of the equilibrium real rate is useful, even though the level is not directly observable, because it provides a general sense of the level that would, over that longer period, allow aggregate supply and demand to move into balance, given the evaluation of secular forces such as productivity and population growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In each case, my own preferred approach is to take the other variable into account in performing our main job of dealing with inflation and unemployment	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Data received over the intermeeting period reinforced earlier indications that real GDP growth had turned up after having been slow in the first quarter of this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The staff's outlook for inflation was broadly unchanged.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Tim, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the current decade, however, the standard deviation of inflation has been relatively stable in Brazil, at around 5 percent, and it has been declining in Mexico, where it is now around 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	That interdependence suggests that monetary policy makers must pay attention to conditions abroad as well as at home.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in household wealth,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But many other commodity prices have fallen further, and the reason I would give for that is that the emerging markets—China, the rest of Asia, and some other parts of the world—plus Europe, of course, are softer, and so global commodity demand is weaker.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The fundamentals underlying capital spending continued to be supportive, as business sector output expanded briskly, firms remained flush with funds, and relative price declines for high-tech equipment continued to push down its user cost.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Continued gains in employment and income, high household net worth, and low gasoline prices were viewed as factors that should support consumer spending in coming months.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued, but they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	One participant remarked that, with inflation having run consistently below 2 percent in recent years and market-based measures of inflation compensation still low, postponing an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would help push inflation expectations up to levels consistent with the Committee's objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Increases in the prices of energy, other commodities, and non-oil imports, as well as reports from some business contacts that higher costs were increasingly being passed through to prices, suggested that the downtrend in inflation had ended.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important.2 Such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short-term interest rates but also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A higher rate of technical change that raises the productivity and hence the profitability of capital should elevate the value of equities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In Latin America, indicators suggested that economic activity in Mexico and Brazil expanded further in the first quarter.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Indicators of supply and demand conditions for small business credit were generally unchanged over the past quarter, with demand appearing to remain weak.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And we’re learning to, to engage in economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	An anticipated sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation also would damp domestic production as the growth of stocks was brought into balance with the expected more moderate trajectory of final sales.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	King (1999) shows that, if a long enough interval is given to hit the target, there may be little difference between a price level target and an inflation rate target.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	An easing of supply constraints was expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Furthermore, policymakers hoped that additional tools at their disposal--so-called incomes policies enforced by “jawboning,” guideposts, and price and wage controls--were ready to combat and control any resulting upcreep in inflation with minimal macroeconomic cost.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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