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2	These authors point out (as have many others) that, when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating expectations of inflation on the part of the public.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, other measures of labor utilization--including the labor force participation rate and the numbers of discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons--suggested more modest improvement, and other indicators of labor demand, such as rates of hiring and quits, remained low.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Accordingly, considerable caution needed to be exercised in assessing the outlook for productivity and in relying on projections of the economy and prices, which necessarily embodied judgments about this outlook, in making monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association.1 I look forward to my conversation with Rob Nichols,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	That is a positive for growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Most participants continued to see the risks to inflation as balanced.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Advances in productivity had boosted profit margins, and high margins were helpful in that they could absorb some portion of any cost increases for a time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With sales contracting and inventory imbalances still substantial, the manufacturing sector continued its sharp slide, and aggregate employment plunged.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Because there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence, breadth, and magnitude of climate-related shocks to the economy, it could be challenging to assess what adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be most effective at keeping the economy operating at potential with maximum employment and price stability.8 We need only look back to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s to see how difficult it was for monetary policymakers to assess accurately the likely persistence of the effects on inflation and output and the appropriate response.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Household spending was projected to grow at a fairly solid rate, supported by higher employment and somewhat lower energy prices but damped somewhat by lessened stimulus from gains in wealth and the need for households to rebuild savings.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	If so, GDP growth this calendar year could be the fastest since 1983.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Auctions of GSE debt following the conservatorship announcement reportedly attracted heavy demand, but market participants indicated that liquidity in the secondary market for GSE debt remained somewhat lower than normal.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Rapid responses by businesses to changes in free-market prices have muted much of the tendency for unsold goods to back up, or unmet needs to produce shortages.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Given stable prices, savers and investors have more confidence about the ultimate value of their investments.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	We should first recognize that the form of the U.S. government is different than that of most inflation-targeting countries.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Now suppose that, in an economy experiencing a stable deflation, the central bank leadership announces a fixed inflation target but then makes no progress toward that target during a given period.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, the dollar partially retraced these increases following the much weaker-than-expected U. S. employment report for May, finishing the period a bit stronger against the currencies of the AFEs and about 3 percent higher against EME currencies.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	We understand that inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time, but they don’t change rapidly.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Indeed, I would argue that over the past eight years, the framework served us well and supported the Federal Reserve's efforts after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) first to achieve and then, for several years, to sustainâ€”until cut short this spring by the COVID-19 pandemicâ€”the operation of the economy at or close to both our statutorily assigned goals of maximum employment and price stability in what became the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	LBOs, and other forms of private equity investment, may force management to implement strategic changes rapidly to restore the firmâ€™s return on equity and boost share prices, in part by increasing financial leverage.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	What they have had is low unemployment, lots of social problems.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	If we—if we analyze inflation data and conclude that, clearly, transitory influences are holding down inflation, I do not want to say that we would respond to that.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But an intriguing alternative is to set a target for the price level.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And, as I think all of us—having that expectation and that if the economy continued to progress along the lines that we expected and we continued to see the risks as balanced—do regard it as appropriate to gradually remove accommodation that’s in place by having several interest rate increases this year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Besley, Meads and Surico's contribution is to ask whether certain characteristics of the policymakers matter for how they vote on the monetary policy committee.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year drop out of the calculation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The review of regional economic developments by the Federal Reserve Bank presidents pointed to moderate expansion in economic activity across much of the nation, though growth was described as modest in a few regions and relatively robust in some others.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at this meeting established ranges for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But some would argue that monetary policy is actually further away from neutral, based on the fact that current inflation is so much higher than the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable during the intermeeting period.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	(4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In addition, though the unemployment rate has fallen since the middle of 2003, the participation rate currently remains near the low point reached in the first half of 2004.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	But also we want to see inflation move up back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, and so seeing above-trend growth and continuing tightness—greater tightness in labor and product markets—I think that will help us achieve our objective as well with respect to inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Consumer credit jumped in May and remained strong in June, reflecting a rebound in credit card balances and continued robust growth in auto loans.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its June projections for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate as roughly in line with the average over the past 20 years.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	And the way I would explain it is, is that inflation that’s too low will mean that interest rates are lower.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And if the stock theory of the portfolio is correct, which we believe it is, holding all of those securities off of the market and reinvesting and still keeping the, you know, rolling-over maturing securities, will still continue to put downward pressure on interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The implication is that trend productivity and, ultimately, potential growth are lower than expected.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Economic data releases were mixed, on balance, over the intermeeting period, but market participants were especially attentive to incoming information on the labor market--most notably, the private payroll figures in the employment report for May, which were considerably weaker than investors expected.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	To reduce that uncertainty, we often use the unemployment gap rather than the output gap in these rules.19 We also need to pick values for the coefficients a and b, whether they are the values John Taylor posited in his seminal 1993 article or other values from the vast literature that has come since.20 There are still other choices to make.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For now, the Committee should remain particularly vigilant to incoming information bearing on the outlook for inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	At the same time, an acceleration in productivity also appears to have a direct disinflationary effect.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Although the unemployment rate edged up to 5.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The large current account deficit was seen as a factor pointing to potential depreciation of the dollar over time, with adverse repercussions on domestic inflation albeit favorable effects on exports.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	A second set of circumstances in which deflation or very low inflation may pose significant problems is potentially more relevant to the current U.S. economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In their assessment of factors leading to this decision, the members focused on the further evidence that moderating demand and accelerating productivity were closing the gap between the growth of aggregate demand and potential supply, even before earlier Committee tightening actions had exerted their full restraining effects.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Several saw that outlook as depending importantly on continued strengthening of the labor market or on an above-trend pace of economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The role of the Board vis-à-vis the regional Banks was elevated in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and in the early years of the Great Depression, but the combination of centralized and regional responsibilities remains an important strength of the Federal Reserve System, as I'll explain shortly when I discuss the formulation of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	With regard to the federal sector, spending related to last year’s hurricanes appeared likely to abate, and federal expenditures overall would probably be providing less impetus to aggregate demand going forward.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The shifting balance of domestic demand and potential supply in each country means that policies affecting domestic demand will need to be re-calibrated to preserve price stability and keep economies operating at high levels of reserve utilization.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Staff Review of the Financial Situation The decision by the FOMC to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at the December meeting and its retention of the "extended period" language in the statement were widely anticipated by market participants and elicited little price response.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	They continued to expect that inflation would move up toward the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the effects of these transitory factors waned and conditions in the labor market improved further.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is something that the FOMC pays attention to, but if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Consequently, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, a few other participants pointed to the record of inflation consistently running below the Committee's 2 percent objective over recent years and expressed the concern that longer-run inflation expectations may have slipped below levels consistent with that objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Low readings on overall and core consumer price inflation in recent months, as well as the weakened economic outlook, kept near-term inflation expectations reported in surveys well below their high levels in mid-2008.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	1 The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, participants generally saw these downward pressures on inflation starting to abate next year, with widespread distribution of vaccines reducing social-distancing concerns and spurring economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February while households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Consider a price increase for a breakfast cereal that increases the prices of both the brand-name cereal and the corresponding lower-priced store-brand cereal but maintains a differential between them.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	And as I mentioned, I think at the last press conference, estimates by the—by members of the Committee have moved down by a full percentage point since maybe 2012 as we’ve learned—as unemployment has dropped and inflation hasn’t really reacted.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher federal funds rate might be acceptable or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable during the intermeeting period.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Here is where unit labor costs, or specifically the relationship between productivity growth and wage increases, would come into play.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Advances in productivity had boosted profit margins, and high margins were helpful in that they could absorb some portion of any cost increases for a time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indeed, virtually every forecast projects a modest rise in broad measures of U.S. inflation this year, reflecting the dissipation or reversal of favorable supply shocks, most importantly the reversal in the path of oil prices, the stabilization of commodity prices and non-oil import prices, and some rebound in health care costs.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that, despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appeared solid.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the view of one member, however, aggregate final demand was so strong that, with economic activity and the associated demand for labor having expanded at an unsustainable pace for some time, one could be reasonably confident that inflation would most likely pick up in the absence of policy action.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	I think the—you know, in a way, the least tight aspect of it is, is looking at the unemployment rate, which is still below our median estimate of, of [the unemployment rate consistent with] maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Indeed, scattered evidence dating back to ancient Rome and before reflects the same order of interest rate magnitude, not a one percent interest rate nor 200 percent.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Another clear attempt at political interference emerged in February 1988 when an undersecretary of the Treasury sent a letter to Federal Reserve officials urging them to ease monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	That’s not going to happen without, without restoring price stability.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective, but we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, participants generally saw these downward pressures on inflation starting to abate next year, with widespread distribution of vaccines reducing social-distancing concerns and spurring economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Or the 1990s could be used as an illustration of how monetary policy could lower inflation, with concomitant gains in terms of full employment and long-term economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A number of participants stressed that recently enacted fiscal support would help address some of the hardships faced by these groups and that monetary policy would also help by promoting the economy's return to the Committee's goals of broad-based and inclusive maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Price and capital controls, which might have been feasible a half century ago, would be very difficult to implement in today's more technologically advanced environment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In particular, the Committee noted that it would respond as necessary to maintain price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting in June the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The members also agreed that the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of greater inflation pressures and that further tightening actions might be necessary to bring about financial conditions that were sufficiently firm to contain upward pressures on labor costs and prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So, I think you raise a very important point because, although there is a great deal of market focus on the timing of liftoff, what to matter in thinking about the stance of policy is what the entire path of interest rates will look like.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Inflation compensation for 2007 declined modestly, perhaps reflecting the further drop in spot energy prices, but was largely unchanged at longer maturities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The deceleration seemed to reflect primarily an unwinding of heightened demand for the relative safety and liquidity of money market mutual funds that had boosted M2 in prior months.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that the coronavirus outbreak was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The result could be cross-border spillovers from the increase in U.S. domestic demand, reducing the effect on U.S. real activity and inflation and potentially contributing to external imbalances.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

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