label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
|---|---|---|
2 | Prices, interest rates, stock prices, and other signals produced by market economies to encourage the distribution of productive resources have no inherent moral content. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to indicate expectations that inflation would decline notably in coming quarters, and measures of medium-term inflation compensation fell over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | First, policymakers should continuously update their estimates of the NAIRU and the output gap, using all available information, particularly the realizations of unemployment, output, and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and supply bottlenecks. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Same thing with economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We have Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL households who are becoming more comfortable with their debt levels and more able to service that debt, an improving job market. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Looking to the future, however, the members generally agreed that the risks were in the direction of a heightening in inflation pressures despite their belief that growth in overall demand now seemed to have declined to a more sustainable pace and probably would continue to expand for a time at a rate below that of the economy's output potential. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Last year, we had 1.9 percent productivity, which is much higher. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In discussing the increases in U. S. longer-term interest rates that occurred in the wake of the June FOMC meeting and the associated press conference, meeting participants pointed to heightened financial market uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and a shift of market expectations toward less policy accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | For example, households have been able with increasing ease to extract equity from their homes, and this doubtless has helped support consumer spending in recent years, complementing the traditional effects of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Several participants expressed the view that a decision regarding the long-run composition of the portfolio would not need to be made for some time, and a couple of participants highlighted the importance of making such a decision in the context of the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategies, tools, and communications practices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Consumer price inflation was being held down by weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Monetary policy seeks to buffer the economy from unexpected adverse disruptions, or "shocks." | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We might look to the historical experience with oil price shocks in the 1970s—not a happy story. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Fiscal austerity is the one tried and true approach to dealing with budget and trade deficits simultaneously. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | More broadly, post-crisis monetary policy supported asset values, reduced interest payments, and increased both employment and income. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the Committee's discussion of possible adjustments to policy during the intermeeting period, members agreed that the retention of an asymmetric directive toward tightening was consistent with their view that the risks remained biased toward higher inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Many members were concerned about the still-sensitive state of financial markets and thought that an easing of policy would help to support improvements in market functioning, thereby mitigating some of the downside risks to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distribution—for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or more crucial inputs; a poor cotton crop in the United States due to weather, which is driving up prices; and clogged ports and trucker shortages. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants noted that the improved performance of investment suggested that the expansion was becoming more balanced, with strengthening business spending potentially offsetting some moderation in the growth of household spending from the elevated rates of recent years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But even for many other workers, a rapidly evolving work environment in which the skill demands of their jobs are changing can lead to very real anxiety and insecurity about losing their jobs. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In preparation for the Federal Reserve's semiannual report to the Congress on the economy and monetary policy, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks submitted individual projections of the growth of GDP, the rate of unemployment, and core consumer price inflation for the years 2006 and 2007. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Back then, FOMC participants were forecasting unemployment rates around 7-3/4 percent and 7 percent for year-end 2013 and 2014, respectively, in our Summary of Economic Projections; as of the June 2013 round, these forecasts have been revised down roughly 1/2 percentage point each. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | That transition itself could help bring inflation down, because, presumably, people would spend a little less on goods while they start spending more on travel and all sorts of travel services and things like that. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It is true that changes in longer-term interest rates in the United States—but also in other advanced economies—does have some effect on emerging markets, particularly those who are trying to peg their exchange rate, and can lead to some capital inflows or outflows. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Therefore, even in the case of personal computers, where we have made such great strides in measuring quality changes, I suspect that important phenomena still may not be adequately captured by our published price indexes. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, several participants pointed out that the 3-month change in that index had firmed recently, signaling some improvement in the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Survey measures give us an idea of what the average household expects inflation to be in the coming years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The evidence suggests that new technology often results in more growth in employment in innovating industries. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although core inflation and the 12-month trimmed mean PCE inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained a little below 2 percent, many participants anticipated that high levels of resource utilization and stable inflation expectations would keep overall inflation near 2 percent over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important.2 Such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short-term interest rates | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, but PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So the term “trend inflation”—usually there are a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Business and household spending are increasing at rates consistent with moderate economic growth, though household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As we gain experience with the enhanced forecasts, we will continue to evaluate how best to promote stability of both prices and employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Measures of inflation compensation based on TIPS fell in response to the soft reading on core inflation in the November CPI release | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As students of economics, you may already know that the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy to support a strong and stable economy in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Expectations of greater and longer-lasting slack in labor and product markets than anticipated earlier had led to downward revisions to forecasts of wage and price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | it was noted that this drop could be explained by a reduction in the number of respondents who had previously expected relatively high inflation outcomes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The stock market soared, and--remarkably enough--core inflation moderated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We’re not seeing evidence in labor markets of very substantial upward pressures on labor that could signify extreme shortages of labor that could propel inflation higher in a very rapid way, and inflation is still operating below our objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And the growth of telegraphy enabled railroads to better coordinate the movement of trains over a wider area. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Over the medium term, participants expected strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These arguments imply that slack in labor markets remains considerable and therefore that a reduction in the unemployment rate toward its longer-run normal level would not have much effect on inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Nonetheless, those restraining influences were expected to abate over time and economic activity strengthen gradually. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, the dollar partially retraced these increases following the much weaker-than-expected U. S. employment report for May, finishing the period a bit stronger against the currencies of the AFEs and about 3 percent higher against EME currencies. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We know that the short end of the yield curve is dominated by monetary policy and cyclical factors. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | One participant, however, objected that purchases of MBS, when compared to purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, would likely result in higher interest rates for many borrowers in other sectors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the past, a reasonable goal might have been to maintain a zero deficit in our on-budget accounts--those accounts that exclude the Social Security and Medicare surplus--and to begin a serious discussion of reforms to Social Security and Medicare to bring them closer into actuarial balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The number of black-owned firms increased nearly 50 percent and the number of Hispanic-owned firms jumped 80 percent between 1987 and 1992--between two and three times the rate of growth of non-minority-owned firms. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | First, I will discuss the available empirical evidence from the United States on the effect of changes in asset prices on household consumption and business investment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Looking ahead, the anticipated pickup in employment and related gains in incomes, undergirded by continued robust growth in structural productivity, was seen as supporting further expansion in consumer spending. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I did indicate that I do have concerns about the scope for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Their trade accounts tend to be in surplus, in some cases substantially, an indication that they are supplying more goods into the global economy than they are demanding. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Many members were concerned about the still-sensitive state of financial markets and thought that an easing of policy would help to support improvements in market functioning, thereby mitigating some of the downside risks to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Venezuela provides one counterexample, with a long-term inflation forecast now of 15 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated; in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A considerable literature suggests that successful monetary policies should stabilize, or "anchor," inflation expectations so as to prevent them from becoming a source of instability in their own right (Goodfriend, 1993; Evans and Honkapohja, 2003). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In addition, to address the sizable demand for dollar funding in foreign jurisdictions, the FOMC authorized the expansion of its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank; by the end of the intermeeting period, the formal quantity limits on these lines had been eliminated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Moreover, inflation was running at a fairly low rate and quite possibly would edge down a little further over coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | On balance, in light of the uncertainties in the outlook and given that a variety of special factors would continue to contain inflation for a time, the Committee could await further developments bearing on the strength of inflationary pressures without incurring a significant risk that disruptive policy actions would be needed later in response to an upturn in inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Shortly after 9 a.m. each morning, the Desk staff and staff members at the Board of Governors confer over the phone to discuss their respective estimates of the day's demand for balances as well as to consider factors that may affect supply. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Risk sentiment abroad fluctuated over the intermeeting period as market participants weighed increasing coronavirus cases in a number of countries against improving economic data releases and ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Reserve market conditions associated with this directive had been expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | These authors point out (as have many others) that, when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating expectations of inflation on the part of the public. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the view of a number of members, rapid growth of the monetary aggregates, though it had slowed very recently, was a further indication that financial conditions were not restraining economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownership. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that readings on overall and core PCE inflation, measured on a 12-month change basis, had continued to run below the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Despite a large increase in the overall consumer price index for September, measures of inflation compensation calculated using yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities were about unchanged over the intermeeting period, although they remained a bit above the levels seen before Hurricane Katrina. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, the leveling off in that disturbing trend is an encouraging sign of what we can achieve if we can maintain strong and flexible labor markets accompanied by low inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Most believed that downside risks to economic growth had diminished somewhat since the April meeting, but were still significant. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Broad equity price indexes fell sharply over the intermeeting period on net. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In addition, the median estimate of the longer-run normal unemployment rate moved down a tenth to 4.6 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Given the pressure of a considerable amount of unused resources, any adverse developments that held down economic expansion would increase the probability of further disinflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nonetheless, those restraining influences were expected to abate over time and economic activity strengthen gradually. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The broad index of the foreign exchange value of the dollar rose nearly 3 percent over the intermeeting period amid the rise in U. S. interest rates, market expectations that U. S. tax reform was becoming more likely, and foreign central bank actions and communications. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Looking beyond this spring, my views on the appropriate pace of interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction for this year and beyond will depend on how the economy evolves. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | House price appreciation appeared to have slowed from the elevated rates seen over the past summer. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This automatically pushes up domestic interest rates to support the currency. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Despite some recent turbulence, owing in part to geopolitical events, stock prices have logged robust gains over the past 3-1/2 years, and broad equity indices have now retraced most of the ground lost between 2000 and 2002. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | At the same time, however, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, and the risks that underlying inflation pressures could prove to be greater than anticipated appeared to have risen. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.