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2 | Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since mid-June; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their economies, especially for businesses, such as restaurants and bars, providing services that entail personal interactions; and some high-frequency indicators that pointed to a deceleration in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period, while multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But what does this mean for monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to produce | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As of this month, the maximum monthly reduction in the balance sheet will be nearly double the level of the previous cycle.10 Together, the increase in the policy rate and the reduction in the balance sheet should help bring demand into alignment with supply. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Expansion of these two monetary aggregates was supported by further rapid expansion in the demand for currency and stronger inflows to retail money market funds at a time of weakness in U. S. bond and equity markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So it’s a serious economic problem for the United States, but it’s—it’s got underlying causes that are not related to monetary policy or to our response to the pandemic. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Persistently strong demand and increasingly supportive conditions in debt and equity markets suggested the possibility of rising inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because, under a simple feedback policy, private-sector expectations are likely to be broadly consistent with the central bank's plans, the effectiveness of monetary policy would be enhanced as well. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In terms of the performance of inflation and unemployment, the experience of the past few years has not been unlike a mirror image of the 1970s. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As the economy approached full employment, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System, was faced with the classic problem of managing the mid-cycle slowdown--that is, of setting policy to help guide the economy toward sustainable growth without inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Signs of an actual change in inflation were still quite tentative and anecdotal, and they did not warrant an adjustment to policy at this meeting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So, you know, as I mentioned, the Committee acutely feels its obligation to move to make sure that we restore price stability and is determined to use its tools to do so. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For a variety of reasons, some emerging-market economies have resisted upward pressures on their exchange rates, even if that resistance requires buying large quantities of dollars to keep their currencies from appreciating. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Treasury bond yields declined somewhat, perhaps reflecting both expectations of lower policy rates and greater investor demands for safety. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For asset purchases, the Committee declared that tapering would wait "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I mean, it really depends on how long it takes for wages and, more than that, prices to come down for inflation to come down. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Were we to introduce an interest rate rule, how would we judge the meaning of a rule that posits a rate far above or below the current rate? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So in—in—in U-6, the U-6 level of unemployment has tripled from 7 percent to 21 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With regards to inflation, the median inflation projection of FOMC participants is 2.4 percent this year and declines to 2 percent next year before moving back up to 2.1 percent in 2023. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | * * * What then are the implications of this largely irreducible uncertainty for the conduct of monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The December employment report showed that job growth had slowed appreciably, and other indicators also pointed to emerging weakness in the labor market in the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The pace of real GDP growth was forecast to be faster over the second half of this year than in the first half, primarily reflecting a modest increase in the rate of growth of private domestic final purchases and a sizable turnaround in inventory investment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation continued to climb in June, reaching 9.1 percent as measured by the consumer price index. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Conclusion In conclusion, let us not forget that the declines in inflation over the past two decades and the resulting boost to monetary credibility we currently enjoy were earned with some economic pain, as the pace of economic activity was slowed, at times severely, to bring inflation down. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | He was concerned that the flattening yield curve was partly due to falling longer-term inflation expectations or a lower neutral real rate of interest. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The shock that the—from the pandemic was unprecedented both in its nature and in its size and in the amount of unemployment that it created and in the shock to economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | You can get to 20, if you wanted to, easily, but labor force participation, the unemployment rate, different age groups of—you know, prime-age labor force participation, in particular, gets a lot of focus, the JOLTS data get a lot of focus. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | All members agreed that the FOMC statement for this meeting should again indicate that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that was likely to be measured but that the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to maintain price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In contrast, businesses cut production and employment substantially in recent months--likely reflecting, in part, inventory overhangs that persisted into the early part of the year--and fixed investment continued to contract. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Federal Reserve’s enhanced guidance about its policy intentions and its substantial and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommodative, consistent with the pursuit of its mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | You’ll never get inflation to 2 percent.” Some of our critics now who say inflation’s too tight—too high were the same ones who were saying, “You’ll never get to 2 percent.” Well, but anyway, that’s what happened. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | You know, we’re, we’re—inflation measures are always going to be a bit volatile. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly in July and August, with strong gains in private-sector jobs and declines in government employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The pace of inventory liquidation was thought likely to moderate in coming quarters and subsequently turn to accumulation as inventories came into better balance with sales, with increasingly positive implications for overall production and economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By 2009, the forecasts for both the headline and core PCE price indexes showed inflation receding from its 2008 level, in line with the previous forecasts. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | One participant suggested that excess liquidity might be leading to speculation in commodity markets, possibly putting upward pressure on prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This is modeled by assuming that wage change depends on q*, while the inflation equation (based on the markup equation) depends on q. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed, but inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In contrast, the past few cycles did not see this kind of behavior, and in each case, financial imbalances, rather than goods and services inflation, were notably elevated at the onset of the downturn. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | U.S. inflation remains muted. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With longer-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, changes in commodity and import prices expected to be modest, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, inflation was forecast to be subdued through 2015. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants generally expected that, over the medium term, real economic activity would increase at a pace sufficient to lead to a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate toward levels consistent with the Committee's objective of maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Auctions of GSE debt following the conservatorship announcement reportedly attracted heavy demand, but market participants indicated that liquidity in the secondary market for GSE debt remained somewhat lower than normal. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Over the intermeeting period, yields on short- and intermediate-term nominal Treasury securities fell, while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities of comparable maturity increased somewhat, pushing inflation compensation considerably lower at those horizons. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Moreover, investing in EMEs has become more attractive as many EMEs have improved their macroeconomic policies and institutional frameworks over recent decades; growth differentials may partly be reflecting these improvements. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Smoothing through these variations, average monthly job growth appears to have stepped down from last year’s strong pace, but job gains remain well above the pace necessary to provide jobs for new labor force entrants. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The technical measures we are undertaking do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy, which we continue to implement by adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In addition to u* and r*, an important input into any monetary policy assessment is the state of inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff's forecast for core PCE price inflation this year was revised down a little in response to recent data. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This lack of congressional momentum could be interpreted as lack of congressional support for inflation targeting, or it could merely reflect a more neutral absence of strong opinions. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So we view maximum employment as the maximum sustainable level of employment, meaning it’s not so much that it will cause the economy to overheat. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Many members concluded that because there did not seem to be any urgency to tighten current policy for domestic reasons, given the likelihood that inflation would remain subdued for a while, important weight should be given to potential reactions abroad. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Rather, it is that the underlying sources of productivity growth are very complex. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in July, reflecting both a decline in exports and a rise in imports. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | They also noted that even with this additional firming the risks were still weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflationary pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With the economic outlook held constant, changes in the net demand for long-term securities have their largest effect on the term premium. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In these circumstances, domestic demand would need to decelerate considerably for growth to proceed at a sustainable pace. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Not surprisingly, the projected path of above-trend GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 translates into rapid declines in the projected path for the unemployment rate, which is projected to fall to 3.8 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2023. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The slowdown would reflect factors that were expected to damp the growth of overall business investment spending and a greater saturation of potential computer markets that might lead to more emphasis on replacement demand rather than the further expansion of capacity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to leave the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances at 0. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In contrast, CRE loan growth at banks was weak in July and August, likely partly driven by the recovery of CMBS markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The increase over the last few months in five-year measures of inflation compensation derived from Treasury nominal and inflation-indexed securities might be a warning sign that expectations were not as well anchored as they had been over the summer. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, the available measures of expectations--whether from surveys or financial markets--have shown longer-term expectations increasing very little, if at all, throughout this period, providing some assurance about the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation had been subdued of late, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With energy price increases expected to slow next year, total PCE inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Even so, the growth of investment spending over this period noticeably outpaced the rise in retained earnings, and thus these corporations turned to the capital markets to fill the widening gap. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by implication, macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With respect to this particular part of the District, Jack may discuss Florida's citrus crop, the relative health of the tourism industry, and trends in Florida real estate prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The effects of the saving outflow may thus have been felt disproportionately on U.S. interest rates and the dollar. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So unemployment has tended to go up much faster for minorities and for others who are—tend to be at the low end of the income spectrum. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The rapid pace of investment also helped to hold down inflationary pressures by increasing the growth of productive capacity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, the expected strength in aggregate demand would curb the extent of disinflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, some others emphasized that deferring the decision until later in the year would permit additional time to assess the outlook for economic activity and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The recent lower readings on inflation have been driven significantly by what appear to be one-off reductions in certain categories of prices, such as wireless telephone services and prescription drugs. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment; another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | subsequently moved up against the backdrop of an improving global growth outlook, higher commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar, and the stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation in the December CPI release. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In these circumstances, a pause seemed desirable to monitor the still-incomplete effects of the Committee's easing over the past year--a significant part of which had been implemented in recent months--and the contours of the turnaround in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Prospects for ProductivityLet me close with some comments on the outlook for productivity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We found that a surprise increase of 25 basis points in the funds rate target typically results in a decline in broad equity indexes of about 1 percent, whereas a change in the funds rate that is expected by the market has essentially no effect on stock prices.17 Our work is just one example of a number of event-study analyses that may well shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the channels of monetary policy transmission. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And as I mentioned earlier, the unemployment decline last month was more than 100 percent accounted for by declines in participation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | They continued to expect that inflation would move up toward the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the effects of these transitory factors waned and conditions in the labor market improved further. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As reflected in their SEP projections, participants regarded the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time as long as incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation; increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from "flexible inflation targeting" to a "flexible form of average inflation targeting. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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