label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
|---|---|---|
2 | Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Because inflation normally responds slowly to such shocks, inflation targeters could respond in any of three ways. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Committee also noted that output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had appeared to pick up, and although incoming data on inflation showed that it had moved somewhat higher, longer-term inflation expectations had remained well contained. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nevertheless, most participants agreed that, although the level of inventories of unsold homes that homebuilders desired was uncertain, the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As we all know, starting in late February or March of last year, widespread economic and social lockdowns and other effects of the pandemic caused the swiftest and deepest contraction in employment and economic activity since the Great Depression. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Nonetheless, participants viewed the housing situation and its potential further effect on employment, income, and wealth as one of the major sources of downside risk to the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | An extreme version of this view is that bubbles probably do not exist--that rational market processes always price assets at their fundamental value. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Both of these views would suggest a lower level of potential output and thus reduced scope for combating unemployment with additional monetary policy stimulus. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In a virtuous circle, stable inflation expectations help the central bank to keep inflation low even as it retains substantial freedom to respond to disturbances to the broader economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time; such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2020 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York Share Thank you to the conference organizers for inviting me here to discuss what former Chair Bernanke has famously referred to as a "hall of mirrors" problem: a situation in which a central bank's reaction function and financial market prices interact in economically suboptimal and potentially destabilizing ways.1 In my remarks today, I will lay out the way I think about the interplay between financial markets and monetary policy, with a focus on how I myself seek to integrate noisy but often correlated signals about the economy that I glean from models, surveys, and financial markets.2 Three Observations I begin with three unobjectionable observations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a pace a little above that of its longer-run potential over this year and next, while hiring was expected to firm some more, resulting in a further decrease in the unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because, in his view, the new forward guidance in the fifth paragraph of the statement would weaken the credibility of the Committee's commitment to its inflation goal by failing to communicate purposeful steps to more rapidly increase inflation to the 2 percent target and by suggesting that the Committee views inflation persistently below 2 percent as an acceptable outcome. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Energy prices were moderating noticeably in response to lower worldwide demand, and core price inflation remained subdued. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But before I comment on productivity, I'd like to begin with a review of recent economic developments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I think that keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, when some measures of inflation were close to 1 percent in 2003, the Federal Open Market Committee's official statements specifically noted that any further substantial decline in inflation would be unwelcome, mainly because of the risk that a falling price level (which has not occurred since the Great Depression) could cause a significant disruption to economic activity and employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In any event, it was clear that forecasts in recent years typically had overstated the rise in inflation, and a great deal of uncertainty surrounded the extent to which productivity gains and other factors, some unspecified, might continue to hold down inflation in a period of robust economic growth and relatively tight labor markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share with you, the students of South Dakota State University (SDSU), my experience as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and my outlook for the U.S. economy.1 Today I will speak to you about my outlook for the U.S. economy and what the Federal Reserve has been doing to support economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase program had been effective and that more time was needed to assess the outlook for the labor market and inflation; moreover, international comparisons suggested that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet retained ample capacity relative to the scale of the U. S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In a paper presented at a recent conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kozicki and Tinsley (2003) develop an empirical model of the economy under the assumptions that the Fed's implicit inflation target is subject to permanent shocks and that the public learns about the Fed's target over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Apart from notably adverse business sentiment and disappointing growth in sales and profits, factors that were curbing capital expenditures cited by members included persisting capital overhangs stemming from what were now seen as excessive earlier buildups in equipment and software and substantial idle capacity in many industrial and commercial structures. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | On the other hand, by that metric, the, the September 16, 2020 unemployment rate would have been in the—in the 20s in, in April. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Perhaps because those asset prices are important to spending, key macroeconomic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, exhibit a similar pattern. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | After precipitous drops in March and April, employment rose strongly in May and June as many people returned to work from temporary layoffs. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | M2 growth picked up appreciably during December and January, evidently reflecting extra demands for liquidity and safety during the century-date-change period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In particular, incoming data and anecdotal information indicated that economic activity had appreciably more forward momentum than previously perceived and that inflation pressures could be intensifying. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In these circumstances, inflation pressures could be expected to remain subdued and some further disinflation might well occur. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants also generally agreed that the recent data had not led them to significantly change their outlooks for the most likely rates of economic growth and inflation in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The hurricanes were also expected to depress payroll employment in September, with a reversal over the next few months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Following these swings, inflation was expected to finish the year at just below 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While a preemptive tightening move might be warranted in the not-too-distant future to help contain inflationary pressures in the economy, these members believed that a symmetrical directive would best convey the message that no tightening action was contemplated for the weeks immediately ahead. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association.1 I look forward to my conversation with Rob Nichols, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and some of the initiatives we have announced to support the flow of credit to households and firms during these challenging times. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed much since last summer. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As far as—as the policy rate, what we’ve said is that we will maintain the rate at this level until we’re confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The unemployment rate declined in May and , 2020 June but, at 11.1 percent, remains far above its level before the outbreak and greater than the Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL peak during the Global Financial Crisis. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months driven by strong demand for workers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With sales contracting and inventory imbalances still substantial, the manufacturing sector continued its sharp slide, and aggregate employment plunged. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I expect that to continue, and I would expect also to see some improvement in the degree of part-time employment that’s for economic reasons. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | May 13, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Governor Christopher J. Waller At The Global Interdependence Center's 39th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, The LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, George and the Global Interdependence Center, for the invitation to speak to you this afternoon. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Mr. Plosser noted that the Committee could not afford to wait until there was clear evidence that inflation expectations were no longer anchored, as by then it would be too late to prevent a further increase in inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Policy tightening started last year, as emerging markets including Mexico and Brazil increased rates substantially amid expectations of accelerating inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the United States, evaluating the effects on the economy of shifts in balance sheets and variations in asset prices have been an integral part of the development of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | So that means a more prolonged shortfall of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Consistent with the optimism driving stock prices, spreads of corporate bond yields over comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed markedly across the credit spectrum, most notably for debt securities of the lowest credit quality firms. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Consumer spending was projected to increase at a rate generally in line with the anticipated rise in disposable income; the favorable effects on household wealth of the advance that had occurred in stock prices and the ample availability of credit for most borrowers were expected to balance the damping effects of continuing consumer concerns about the adequacy of their savings, the security of their jobs, and the extent of their debt burdens. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But, in the interim, the absence of increasing inflation pressures meant that the Federal Reserve did not need to tighten to bring demand back in line with the potential as soon as it otherwise might have needed to. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Two noted the possibility that sustained high levels of long-term unemployment could result in higher structural unemployment, an outcome that might be forestalled by increased aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | For example, given the starting point for the outlook, the forecasts will trace out a path for the economy to preserve or reestablish maximum employment and price stability that will reflect FOMC participants' views of the relative variation in output and inflation that is possible in the short run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants judged that an appropriate firming of the stance of monetary policy, along with an eventual waning of supply–demand imbalances, would help to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation down over time to levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While prices in equity markets had turned up from their recent lows, the cumulative losses in financial wealth incurred since early 2000 clearly were having an adverse impact on expenditures by households and the higher cost of equity capital was inhibiting business investment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We’re charged by Congress with trying to pursue maximum employment, and we have taken that very seriously. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With the economic outlook held constant, changes in the net demand for long-term securities have their largest effect on the term premium. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Productivity and TechnologyLet me now turn from the overall economic outlook to productivity and technology developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A widespread view that the Federal Reserve would take whatever steps were needed to hold down inflation over time probably had contributed to the persistence of subdued long-run inflation expectations during an extended period when rapidly rising demand was pressing on limited supply resources. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Unfortunately, I suspect that this call would often come so late in the day that, given the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism and uncertainty about the duration of bubbles, raising interest rates might actually risk exacerbating instability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The unwinding in the early months of 1997 of special factors that had boosted net exports in the fourth quarter of 1996 was offsetting some of the effects on production of the persisting strength in domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although the economy has indeed strengthened over the past few quarters, job growth has been anemic and considerable slack persists in labor markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The fundamentals underlying capital spending continued to be supportive, as business sector output expanded briskly, firms remained flush with funds, and relative price declines for high-tech equipment continued to push down its user cost. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Inflation expectations that currently appeared by various measures and survey results to be essentially flat or even to have declined a bit were reinforcing the factors holding down price increases. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Other economies, such as Argentina and Hong Kong, have fixed their exchange rates essentially through currency boards. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Smoothing through these variations, average monthly job growth appears to have stepped down from last year’s strong pace, but job gains remain well above the pace necessary to provide jobs for new labor force entrants. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Looking ahead, FOMC participants project the unemployment rate to continue to decline; the median projection is 5 percent at the end of next year and moves below 4 percent by 2023. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But overly optimistic expectations for long-run earnings growth were not being driven by easy money, and I see no reason to believe that an extra 50 or even 100 basis points on the funds rate would have had much of a damping effect on investor beliefs in the potential profitability of emerging technologies. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The productivity boom after the Civil War resulted from a variety of technological advances, including the expansion of and improvements in the use of steam power, railroad transportation, and communication by telegraph. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consumer spending firmed somewhat during the first quarter despite the rising unemployment rate and significant financial strains. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Many of them expected that inflation was likely to rise gradually over the medium term, as resource slack diminished and inflation expectations remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Under pure monetary targeting, interest rates would fluctuate with shocks in spending. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Those developments included a recent uptick in core measures of consumer prices, a drop in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, and still elevated energy prices--all against the backdrop of longer-term inflation expectations that were firmly anchored. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | There are, however, some problems with this story as the principal explanation for the favorable inflation performance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Now with respect to the first objective, the rationale for maximizing employment is fairly obvious. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting, real GDP growth in the second half of this year was expected to step up from its pace in the first half. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the housing sector, demand had continued to display appreciable strength in recent months in association with relatively moderate mortgage rates and very positive consumer assessments of homebuying conditions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The idea is that providing more information about the Committee's views of the economic outlook may allow financial market prices to reflect more accurately the likely future stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from the Congress to pursue policies that aim to achieve and sustain maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | More than two years after the recession trough, and following several quarters of strong growth, the historically normal pattern would be for the Fed to be well into the process of tightening policy by now. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Notwithstanding the shift toward monetary policy committees, each central bank and its institutional structure reflects the politics and culture of the country that it serves (or "countries" in the case of the European Central Bank). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The staff's near-term forecast for inflation was revised up a little, as recent data showed somewhat faster-than-anticipated increases that were judged to be only partly transitory. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We are hopeful that Europe will take additional measures and do all that’s necessary to stabilize the situation and to provide the basis for an ongoing stable structure that—in which banks and sovereigns are both stabilized, in which there’s a program for growth, and in which fiscal arrangements are clear—are made much clearer. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Market sentiment toward the syndicated leveraged loan market also improved, with the average bid price increasing noticeably and bid-asked spreads narrowing a bit further. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The events of the last two years come on top of a huge expansion of global trade, competition and productive capacity--all of which have given American businesses less control over prices in the face of rising costs and benefited American consumers through low prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.