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0	At the same time, the incentive to take advantage of increasingly efficient high-tech equipment and software typically available at declining prices would continue to provide an important underpinning for further large gains in investment spending, with favorable implications for continued rapid growth in productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The growth of domestic nonfinancial debt slowed in October (latest data), reflecting a larger further paydown of federal debt and a reduced pace of private borrowing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In addition, at every policy meeting, each member of the MPC is operating with the same information from the staff, and before the quarterly meetings that precede an Inflation Report, the members have sat through a number of discussions covering all aspects of the forecast.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increased yet further.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Together these structural changes would imply that the economy can now operate at a lower unemployment rate and at a higher growth rate than previously without inflationary consequences.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Palmer was a professor at Wharton, a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a worldwide expert on manpower and labor mobility, and a consultant with the Office of Statistical Standards.5 She argued that "a single figure of unemployment, regardless of how it is defined or derived, is inadequate as a basis for selection among [policy] programs.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Computing power may not be falling in price quite so rapidly now as in the late 1990s, but a dollar nevertheless buys a great deal more computational capacity today than it did even five years ago.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Most Committee members, while acknowledging the deficiencies of structural models, viewed them as useful in their efforts to understand how the inflation process was changing and also as input to inflation forecasts.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	January 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast) Share I want to thank the Canadian Association for Business Economics for inviting me to join you today, particularly president Bonnie Lemcke and past president Armine Yalnizyan.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, making significant use of this option would bias credit flows in the direction of depository institutions and, if the volume of these loans were large enough, could affect the interest rates on the assets, specifically bank loans held by such institutions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, most participants judged that inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Moreover, the absence of significant growth in employment, should it persist, could at some point have significant adverse repercussions on consumer spending.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In this case, there may be no problem for monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Nonfarm payroll employment rose substantially further in October.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In their discussion of developments in asset markets, the participants' comments focused on two related issues: the low level of long-term interest rates and the continued run-up in home prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	And no, we’re not—we, we have not at all changed our view, and I haven’t changed my view that inflation running above 2 percent, moderately above 2 percent, is a desirable thing.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The recent rebound in oil prices contributed to a strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the Brazilian real, and the Mexican peso.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Although I expect these upward price pressures to ease after the temporary supply bottlenecks are resolved, the exact timing of that dynamic is uncertain.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year but remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Overall employment gains were relatively well maintained, and labor markets were still tight though showing signs of softening.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	All members agreed that the FOMC statement for this meeting should again indicate that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that was likely to be measured but that the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to maintain price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Monetary Policy With that outlook in mind, let me turn to monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, a few other participants pointed to the record of inflation consistently running below the Committee's 2 percent objective over recent years and expressed the concern that longer-run inflation expectations may have slipped below levels consistent with that objective.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although inflation remained remarkably subdued and any increase in inflationary pressures likely would tend to emerge only slowly, the strength in demand had developed against the backdrop of financial conditions that, broadly considered, were not substantially different from those now prevailing.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And so when asset prices went back up, probably there’ll be a swing around there, a positive contribution.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Members cited greater, albeit still occasional, indications of heightened worker demands in labor negotiations that likely were encouraged in part by ample job opportunities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, it was noted that slower growth in productivity might have become the norm.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In particular, participants judged that communicating the Committee's expectation that short-term interest rates were likely to stay exceptionally low for some time could be useful because it could lead to pricing of longer-term interest rates consistent with the path of monetary policy that policymakers saw as most likely.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Policymakers, economists, and market participants see much of this decline as reflecting a permanent fall in the equilibrium rate of interestâ€”that is, the level of the federal funds rate that keeps the economy at full employment with stable inflation in the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Now with respect to the first objective, the rationale for maximizing employment is fairly obvious.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the household sector, the ongoing deceleration in house prices further restrained the growth of home mortgage debt.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	core CPI inflation remained low.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Broad equity price indexes were higher over the intermeeting period, amid heightened volatility.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Measures of forward inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation swaps fell further.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Our role, though, is also to, you know, to make sure that—that maximum employment happens in a context of price stability and financial stability, which is why we’re gradually raising rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In each case, my own preferred approach is to take the other variable into account in performing our main job of dealing with inflation and unemployment but not to target asset prices (or exchange rates).	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Core inflation was then expected to edge down in 2009 as the impetus from prior increases in the prices of imports, energy, and other commodities abated and the margin of slack in resource use widened.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But the advent of the war has led to a significant hit to real incomes from large price increases in energy and other commodities in some of the most severely affected economies.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, in the past two decades, what constitutes money has been obscured by the introduction of technologies that have facilitated the proliferation of financial products and have altered the empirical relationship between economic activity and what we define as money, and in doing so has inhibited the keying of monetary policy to the control of the measured money stock.1 Another example of ongoing structural change relates to innovations in mortgage finance.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Participants expected that productivity growth would pick up as firms slowed hiring to a pace more in line with output growth but acknowledged that the improvement might be limited, particularly if business investment spending were to remain soft.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	First, insofar as recent productivity growth is concerned, I have a serious question about the quality of the data that we employ to measure output in today's economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the absence of such shocks, and assuming appropriate monetary policy, participants' economic projections generally showed growth picking up to a moderate pace and the unemployment rate declining somewhat next year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	If we—if we analyze inflation data and conclude that, clearly, transitory influences are holding down inflation, I do not want to say that we would respond to that.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Indeed, the members did not rule out the emergence of appreciably lower inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Also, in the view of a number of participants, the economy was possibly producing in the neighborhood of its potential, and the persistent strength in spending of late suggested that resource markets could tighten further and inflation pressures build.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Again, while I do not shirk the responsibility of the Fed having to do what it can to meet its mandate, obviously, a broad range of policies can affect growth and employment, and I hope that there will be a range of actions that will complement and supplement the Federal Reserve’s efforts.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year but continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	As a result, national saving increased, providing further impetus to economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	By the same token, the effect of the interest rate channel on overall economic activity may be diminished by greater trade integration as changes in domestic demand are offset by induced changes in imports.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And if we do that, inflation expectations will be right at 2 percent, and that’ll help us achieve 2 percent inflation over time and avoid the situation where the central bank loses its ability to support the economy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For example, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.3 percentage points since March, and new claims for unemployment insurance have moved somewhat higher.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So for many, many years, we’ve been far from maximum employment and stable prices, and so the need for accommodative policy has been—has been clear.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	So, you know, as I mentioned, the Committee acutely feels its obligation to move to make sure that we restore price stability and is determined to use its tools to do so.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Nonetheless, participants generally saw the unemployment rate as still elevated and were not yet confident that the recent progress toward the Committee's employment objective would be sustained.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in the second quarter.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Members noted that most broad measures of inflation moved together over extended periods of time, but they did not always do so over short intervals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The first area is the characterization of good monetary policy in increasingly realistic and complex model environments.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people to seek the types of education and training that will meet the demands of work in the twenty-first century.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the simplest version of his model, Bill assumed that the central bank could choose to specify its monetary policy actions in terms of a particular level of a monetary aggregate or a particular value of a short-term nominal interest rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 15 basis points below the top of the target range for the federal funds rate was intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the FOMC's target range.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than substantial adverse ones.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Consider our estimates of real economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	” The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: “The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And I’ll discuss the thinking behind today’s interest rate reduction and then turn to the path forward.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	As always, our actions are guided by our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Earlier in the year, as you will all recall, after careful study over a period of years, actually, the Committee announced the decision to implement monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, investor demand for high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reportedly was robust, although issuance of CMBS remained muted.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	How would that development affect the economy and monetary policy?	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The central tendency rises to 2.4 to 2.7 percent next year, somewhat above estimates of the longer-run growth rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The second requirement contributes to the first and also to smoothing fluctuations in output around full employment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Of course, many other factors also influence inflation, and some of these provide other possible explanations for the recent changes in inflation dynamics.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Our tools work on demand.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Inflation readings available since the April meeting continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and continued decreases in prices of non-energy imports.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These decisions can then push up prices even more and make inflation harder to get under control.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In their discussion of the balance-of-risks sentence in the press statement to be issued shortly after this meeting, all the members agreed that the latter should continue to express, as it had for every meeting earlier this year, their belief that the risks remained weighted toward rising inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP, but thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is something that the FOMC pays attention to,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	That said, the data also indicate that a surge in COVID-19 cases in the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks held back economic activity in the third quarter.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In contrast, changes in inflation rates in some services categories, such as shelter costs, tend to be more persistent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants observed that both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent on a 12-month basis.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It will likely take even longer than that for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum-employment mandate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In contrast, blue-collar employment fell sharply in most of the other countries.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, with the contraction in housing activity expected to abate this year, the pace of economic growth was anticipated to edge back up to a level that was close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth by the end of 2007 and to remain in that same range throughout 2008.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Remarkably, 30-year Treasury yields were only slightly lower than 10-year yields throughout the episode, implying that the markets had no confidence that inflation would ever return to 1950s or 1960s levels.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Several participants noted that the unseasonably warm weather of recent months added one more element of uncertainty to the interpretation of incoming data, and that this factor might account for a portion of the recent improvement in indicators of employment and housing.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh use a similar methodology and find a range from a little less than 1-1/2 percent to about 3 percent with a central tendency of around 2-1/4 percent.5 These estimates are clearly plausible, but history does raise some warning flags concerning the length of time that productivity growth continues elevated.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nonetheless, given a recovery in U. S. domestic demand approximating their current forecasts, growth in imports likely would exceed that of exports by a wide margin over the forecast horizon.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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