label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
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0 | and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Staff Review of the Financial Situation The decision by the FOMC to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at the December meeting and its retention of the "extended period" language in the statement were widely anticipated by market participants and elicited little price response. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Monetary policy has a role, and it really is in, you know—our original role was providing liquidity to financial systems when they’re under stress, and that’s—that’s really part of what we did today. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For example, core CPI (consumer price inflation) prices fell 0.4 percent in April, the largest monthly decrease since the beginning of the series in 1957. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As stock prices soared in the 1990s, the share of equity holdings in household portfolios surpassed the share of owner-occupied housing. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | By fostering increased interactions among central banks, academics, and the public in many different countries, globalization has helped spread a common culture that stresses the benefits of achieving price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | wholesale prices edged up in March relative to their level of a year earlier and posted the first increase on a twelve-month basis since July 2000. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This was a key reason why currency crises of the past few decades were so costly: Sharp depreciations of the exchange rate boosted the domestic-currency value of foreign debt and wreaked havoc with government finances and corporate balance sheets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | and inflation rises slowly towards 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A more-timely data source, average hourly earnings, decelerated slightly to a 4.4 percent annual rate over the third quarter, down from 4.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Sargent, T. "Discussion of 'Policy Rules for Open Economics' by Lawrence Ball," in J.B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Committee, based on its assessment at each meeting, has felt comfortable saying that, based on its assessment of those factors, it considers that it will be likely appropriate to maintain the current target range for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if inflation remains below the 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Fischer, Sahay, and Vegh (2002) present evidence of a strong correlation between fiscal deficits and money creation in high-inflation economies. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand would help limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, given the difficulty in distinguishing between changes in asset prices dominated by fundamental forces and those driven by non-fundamental forces, policymakers should not target asset prices or try to guide them to the policymakers' estimate of fundamental value. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Conversely, fiscal policy expansion in the surplus countries could be used to augment domestic demand, but any such adjustments would need to take account of medium-term goals for fiscal consolidation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I think the—you know, in a way, the least tight aspect of it is, is looking at the unemployment rate, which is still below our median estimate of, of [the unemployment rate consistent with] maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee also noted that output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had appeared to pick up, and although incoming data on inflation showed that it had moved somewhat higher, longer-term inflation expectations had remained well contained. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | You’ll never get inflation to 2 percent.” Some of our critics now who say inflation’s too tight—too high were the same ones who were saying, “You’ll never get to 2 percent.” Well, but anyway, that’s what happened. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So that’s in the low 20s, and that’s post the May employment report. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The prices of their exports are lower than they would be if market forces were given greater scope in foreign exchange markets, and they are supplying more goods and services to the rest of the world than they themselves are demanding. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Job gains had remained solid, and the unemployment rate had stayed near its recent low. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The corresponding depreciation in other countries currencies will result in a gradual increase in the foreign currency price of U.S. exports, compared to the prices of foreign produced goods. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Household expenditures on new homes were likewise at an elevated level, although members reported weakness in some price segments and geographic areas of the housing market. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The unemployment rate was likely to remain low going forward, and various participants remarked that there were some indications that further strengthening in overall labor market conditions was possible without creating undesirable pressures on resources. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While great uncertainty regarding the path of fiscal policy and its economic effects will remain for some time, with the economy getting closer to full employment, the prospect of a material increase in fiscal stimulus over a sustained period could reasonably be expected to shift somewhat greater probability toward stronger inflation outcomes. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It is important to recognize the importance of moving interest rates in response to changing conditions and the potential for destabilizing policy when policy resists the natural tendency for interest rates to rise during cyclical upswings, especially when the economy is near its potential. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As a result, consistent with the policy implication of Bill's 1970 model, the Federal Reserve (like most other central banks) today uses the overnight interbank rate as the principal operating target of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The rapid pace of investment also helped to hold down inflationary pressures by increasing the growth of productive capacity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Given the substantial uncertainty still attached to projections of money growth consistent with the Committee's basic objectives for monetary policy, the members agreed that there was no firm basis for changing the tentative ranges set in July 1996. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, in his monetary policy testimony of July 1992, Chairman Greenspan said, "As I have often noted to this committee, the most important contribution the Federal Reserve can make to encouraging the highest sustainable growth the U.S. economy can deliver over time is to provide a backdrop of reasonably stable prices on average for business and household decisionmaking" (Greenspan, 1992, pp. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Private investors would have to hold more longer-term securities as the Federal Reserve's holdings ran off, making longer-term interest rates somewhat higher than they would be otherwise. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | That is why foreign trade deficits are typically thought of as self-correcting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Despite the uncertainties, the consensus estimates of the NAIRU and the growth of potential give us a hint about what type of landing we should be aiming for and which of the scenarios depicted in figure 1 best describe the economy's initial conditions and prospects. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The invasion and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were likely to weigh on economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The projection for core PCE price inflation in 2008 was raised slightly in response to elevated readings in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Role of Government Policy You will have noted that I have not mentioned the role of government policy in creating a higher rate of trend productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This action was taken against the backdrop of heightened concerns and uncertainty created by the recent terrorist attacks and their potentially adverse effects on asset prices and the performance of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In spite of having such slow growth, disappointing productivity growth, we have a labor market that last year generated an average of about 230,000 jobs a month and so far this year has been generating about 180,000 jobs a month. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The available data for October suggested that the contribution of the change in net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would be much less negative than the drag of nearly 2 percentage points in the third quarter. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The International Monetary Fund projects that global economic growth in 2019 will be the slowest since the financial crisis. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | First, tightening will in all likelihood occur in the context of a more firmly established economic recovery in the United States so that any adverse effects on EME financial conditions should be buffered by the beneficial effects of higher external demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Moreover, we should recognize that these disinflationary effects could dissipate or even be reversed in coming years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Again, the FOMC has done just that through its commitment to adjust policy as required to keep inflation at bay. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I would further say that I think it’s important to emphasize that we’re not going to mechanically take the interest rate projections that participants provide and just build policy off of that. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Monetary Policy in a World without Treasuries Today, monetary policy decisions are implemented through a mix of outright purchases and sales of assets held in the Fed's portfolio, temporary operations through repurchase agreements, and discount window loans.2 It seems to me that the same three operations, though perhaps in different proportions, could be used in the absence of Treasury securities. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Put another way, the FOMC could have "preemptively" tightened monetary policy, based on forecasts, but recognizing the uncertainties about empirical relationships chose not to do so. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants also generally agreed that the recent data had not led them to significantly change their outlooks for the most likely rates of economic growth and inflation in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This equation relates inflation to, among other factors, lagged inflation, resource utilization, and movements in the relative price of imports excluding energy, semiconductors, and computers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Our Congressional mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We must keep in mind that, difficult as the problem seems, consistently measured prices do exist in principle. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So, we are taking account of international developments, including prospects for growth in our trade partners, in making the forecast we have here. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Members commented that added fiscal stimulus might prove to be a useful complement to an accommodative monetary policy in the period immediately ahead when economic activity was likely to remain below the economy's potential. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the days immediately following the Brexit vote, asset prices were volatile, and some financial markets, particularly certain foreign exchange markets, experienced brief periods of strained liquidity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While I will carefully monitor inflation expectations, it will be important to see a sustained improvement in actual inflation to meet our average inflation goal. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is not a Taylor rule but it has the same feature that it relates policy to observables in the economy, such as unemployment and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Federal Reserve is taking action to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2 percent over time.1 While last year's rapid pace of economic growth was boosted by accommodative fiscal and monetary policy as well as reopening, demand has moderated this year as those tailwinds have abated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Concepts associated with deflation such as liquidity traps and the zero bound on nominal interest rates had, for practical purposes, disappeared from economic thought. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The unemployment rate ticked down to 5. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | What they have had is low unemployment, lots of social problems. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A surge in nonfarm business inventory investment accounted for a substantial portion of the acceleration in output in the first quarter, and an anticipated moderation in the accumulation of inventories was an important element in forecasts of greatly reduced economic growth in the current quarter. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For the present, however, inflation remained subdued, and it was likely to remain relatively low for some time in light of the weakness in commodity and other import prices and the tendency for low current inflation to hold down expected price increases. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Geopolitical uncertainties, notably those relating to developments in Iraq, frequently were cited by business contacts as a major reason for caution, but other factors inhibiting capital expenditures evidently included excess capacity and limited prospects for profits because of increased energy, insurance, pension, and other costs and a concomitant inability to raise selling prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The members generally agreed that, if necessary, their concerns about rising inflation could be addressed at the meeting in early February. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee again anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In these circumstances, I believe, it is appropriate to put greater weight on incoming data to determine whether the stance of monetary policy should be changed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Over the same period, demand for auto loans reportedly strengthened further at many banks. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures, although the effect of prior changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar on core consumer prices had apparently been limited. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | He also judged that the policy step would do little to improve near-term growth prospects, given the ongoing structural adjustments and external challenges faced by the U. S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | On the other hand, the fact that productivity growth has remained solid in recent years increases confidence that a larger fraction of those productivity gains reflects longer-term developments and a smaller fraction reflects cyclical factors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In addition, though the unemployment rate has fallen since the middle of 2003, the participation rate currently remains near the low point reached in the first half of 2004. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The pickup in demand had yet to materially narrow currently wide margins of idle labor and other resources, and these margins along with the uncertainties that still surrounded current forecasts of robust economic growth suggested that an accommodative monetary policy might remain desirable for a considerable period of time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Historically, recessions often occurred when the Fed tightened to control inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, "computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics." | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants' concerns about inflation prospects generally had increased over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Later in the week, however, market interest rates moved up in response to the release of the minutes of the February meeting and the mention therein of some sentiment for a larger policy tightening than had been undertaken. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices were holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary policy context. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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