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0 | More fundamentally, however, the members believed that current growth in aggregate demand, should it persist, would continue to exceed the expansion of potential output and, by putting added pressure on already tight labor markets, would at some point foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economic expansion. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Other economies, such as Argentina and Hong Kong, have fixed their exchange rates essentially through currency boards. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that the coronavirus outbreak was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A few participants commented that both survey- and market-based measures of short-term inflation expectations were at historically high levels. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While participants viewed the downside risks to their forecasts of economic activity over the projection period as having diminished, their assessment of the most likely outcomes for economic activity and inflation over the projection period was not greatly changed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The members recognized that a typical recovery-period surge in consumer spending was unlikely inasmuch as expenditures had registered solid growth through the economic downturn, implying an absence of significant pent-up demands. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The near-term forecast again entailed a marked downshift in headline inflation as energy prices fall back consistent with readings from futures markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Stock options are incorporated, based on gains upon exercising the options, in the productivity and cost measure, but not in the ECI. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas--some that would have been familiar to the central bankers in the Fed's early years and some that would have been unfamiliar: maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets supervising and regulating banking organizations to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system and to protect consumers from harm in their use of credit and banking services playing a major role in operating and overseeing the nation's payment system, including providing certain financial services to financial institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions conducting monetary policy in pursuit of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment We have an all-too-recent example of the Fed as a source of financial stability in its response to the financial aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which occurred just before I joined the Board in December 2001. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It can be argued that this meant getting the economy back to its 2019 state with very low unemployment and inflation near 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So, what are the implications for monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | On the upside, bottlenecks, supply disruptions, and historically high rates of resource utilization were seen as potential sources of greater-than-expected inflationary pressures, particularly if there were a significant rise in inflation expectations that altered inflation dynamics. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | maintaining low and stable inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And it is not—it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This increase was slower than a year earlier, as core PCE price inflation (which excludes changes in consumer food and energy prices) moved down to 1. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Now, we have—you know, we haven’t anticipated that slowdown in productivity, and that’s one of the main reasons why we haven’t anticipated the relatively slow growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Investor perceptions of a somewhat less accommodative tone of Federal Reserve communications, as well as the softer-than-expected reading for the April CPI, likely contributed to the decline in inflation compensation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The strongest case for a link between monetary policy and changes in inflation dynamics is in the greater stability of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In agriculture, depressed levels of crop prices and weak global demand continued to weaken farm income. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members generally agreed that, in light of some weaker-than-expected readings on measures of labor market conditions and in the absence of greater confidence about the inflation outlook, it would be prudent to wait for additional information bearing on the medium-term outlook before initiating the process of policy normalization. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | To do that you've got to have price stability, and we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation and where we can have a long expansion too. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The effect of a productivity slowdown on employment growth is likewise ambiguous in the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While accommodative financial conditions and reduced income tax rates should continue to undergird consumer spending and the data on retail sales for July displayed relatively impressive gains, negative wealth effects from falling stock market prices, declining payrolls, and sluggish income gains--should they persist--might well depress consumer expenditures over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Furthermore, in the latest report, FOMC participants indicated that the current degree of uncertainty about GDP growth is even higher than the typical level of uncertainty over the past two decades. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | After falling steeply before the August FOMC meeting, emerging market equity prices were little changed, on net, over the period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants expected economic activity to contract sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in early 2009. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Most FOMC participants anticipate that inflation will gradually move up to the FOMC's 2 percent target over coming years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Additionally, by depressing perceived rates of return abroad, the weakness in foreign demand explains a considerable portion of the run-up in the dollar, as shown in figure 4. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Ultimately inflation is determined by the policy actions of the central bank. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Later in the period, AFE yields partially rebounded and foreign equity prices fully recovered on some easing of U. S. –China trade tensions, as well as perceptions of reduced political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and Italy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) edged up, on net, remaining close to their pre-pandemic levels. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With gross retail margins amounting to about 30 percent of sales, a reduction in currently elevated margins could make an important contribution to reduced inflation pressures in consumer goods. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy; in particular, the Fed's loss of credibility significantly increased the cost of achieving disinflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Survey of Market Participants conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates a shift in expectations following the release of the new monetary policy framework.17 The median expected rate of unemployment at the time of liftoff moved down from 4.5 percent in the July survey, before the release of the framework, to 4.0 percent in the September and subsequent surveys, following the release of the new framework. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | If independence is also defined in terms of assuring the ability and commitment of the central bank to achieve price stability, this commitment can be protected by an explicit price stability mandate from the government. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So there’s been a number of emerging markets—as you know, we’re suffering under the weight of declines in oil prices that are affecting their economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff viewed the uncertainty around its December projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average of the past 20 years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee, based on its assessment at each meeting, has felt comfortable saying that, based on its assessment of those factors, it considers that it will be likely appropriate to maintain the current target range for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if inflation remains below the 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I don’t know that demand for reserves has risen over the past years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Since the previous FOMC meeting, spreads on municipal bonds narrowed substantially, on net, moving near levels observed for several years before the pandemic, as investor demand exhibited some recovery over much of the period from earlier weak levels. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although productivity growth had slowed from the extraordinarily rapid pace that prevailed earlier in the expansion, data for the fourth quarter of 2004, as well as preliminary indications for the first quarter of this year, suggested that gains from efficiency remained substantial. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The disruptions to global economic activity had significantly affected financial conditions and impaired the flow of credit to U. S. households and businesses. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In these circumstances, an easing at some point of current uncertainties and strengthening confidence should induce inventory rebuilding, with positive implications, at least for a time, for the expansion of economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | There should be able to be an adjustment that would have lower than—perhaps lower-than-expected increases in unemployment—lower than would be expected in the ordinary course of events because the level—the ratio of, of vacancies to unemployed is just out of keeping with historical experience. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The slowing economy, together with rising interest rates, was in turn a major factor in precipitating the stock market crash. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moreover, the expected strength in aggregate demand would curb the extent of disinflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The corresponding depreciation in other countries currencies will result in a gradual increase in the foreign currency price of U.S. exports, compared to the prices of foreign produced goods. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Companies can keep their focus on cutting costs and increasing productivity; they can foster research and innovation; they can offer training and employee incentives to acquire more education and skills. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Most analysts would contend that U.S. interest rates were lowered by the world's accumulation of dollars. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Historically, recessions often occurred when the Fed tightened to control inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Federal Reserve is taking action to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2 percent over time.1 While last year's rapid pace of economic growth was boosted by accommodative fiscal and monetary policy as well as reopening, demand has moderated this year as those tailwinds have abated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the current decade, however, the standard deviation of inflation has been relatively stable in Brazil, at around 5 percent, and it has been declining in Mexico, where it is now around 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Progress at Home and Abroad Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad was considerable. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Already, various trimmed price indexes are running much closer to 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The associated declines in wealth could amplify the effects on economic activity, which could have further knock-on effects on financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But equity prices were only holding their own after a substantial decline earlier and the dollar had appreciated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their discussion of developments in asset markets, the participants' comments focused on two related issues: the low level of long-term interest rates and the continued run-up in home prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | During the period examined, the rate of overall consumer inflation was 2.78 percent, as measured by the regular CPI-U for All Items. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members also expressed concern about the potential for an increase in inflation expectations given highly stimulative macroeconomic policies and economic growth that seemed to be gathering momentum. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For 1997 the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1996 for growth of the monetary aggregages and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 1997. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several participants discussed the possible complications that additional purchases could cause for the eventual withdrawal of policy accommodation, a few mentioned the prospect of inflationary risks, and some noted that further asset purchases could foster market behavior that could undermine financial stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In terms of the, you know, inflation, a couple things—your second question. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As the economy approached full employment, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System, was faced with the classic problem of managing the mid-cycle slowdown--that is, of setting policy to help guide the economy toward sustainable growth without inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Current Economic Situation and Outlook While the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, as a direct result of the necessary public health policies put in place to mitigate and control the spread of the virus, the pandemic has also inflicted a heavy toll on the levels of activity and employment in the U.S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But you didn’t under the merely adverse scenario, which featured an inflation shock followed by a quick rise in short-term rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Increasingly, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So I, you know, I’m—I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This conclusion is buttressed by recent sizable increases estimated for labor productivity for the manufacturing sector, derived from a data system that, for the most part, is independent of the national accounts. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As always, my colleagues on the FOMC and I will act to foster our dual objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment; these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants commented that an increase in inflation from recent rates could have especially adverse effects on longer-run economic performance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We have a 2 percent symmetric inflation objective, and, for a number of years now, inflation has been running under 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Pure bubbles--increases in asset prices that are 100 percent air--are, I suspect, rare. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a further step in enhancing the clarity of our communications, the Committee recently decided to begin publishing information about participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy—that is, the path of policy that each participant judges as most likely to foster mandate-consistent outcomes for employment and inflation if the economy evolves as expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The weakness in commodity prices and the appreciation of the dollar also continued to weigh on activity in the energy and agricultural sectors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The current range readily encompassed the growth rate seen likely to be associated with the members' forecasts for economic activity and prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had projected in April. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The recent depreciation of the dollar, while perhaps putting some upward pressure on prices, would damp the deterioration in net U. S. exports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In these circumstances, any tendency for price pressures to mount was likely to emerge only gradually and to be reversible through a relatively limited policy adjustment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | To a considerable extent, however, any uptick in inflation expectations likely represented a reversal of anticipated declines in inflation earlier this year when economic prospects had seemed weaker and survey data did not confirm any increase in long-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But what if the Fed were actually to propose a soft form of inflation targeting? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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