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2 | Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent with any set of relative social weights on inflation and unemployment; the approach can be applied equally well by "inflation hawks," "growth hawks," and anyone in between. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, current data suggested little or no growth in overall expenditures on nonresidential structures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Reserve balances are one among several items on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and demand for these liabilities—notably, currency in circulation—grows over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The ultimate responsibility for price stability rests with the Federal Reserve. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 but still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | That sentiment was apparently reinforced over the remainder of the period by the comments of several Federal Reserve officials and the release of the August employment report, which seemed to convey the view that the economy was emerging from its "soft patch. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | These are, you know, this is—this is the economy at nearly full employment or in the range—in the neighborhood of full employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up our broad stock price indexes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Business spending on equipment and structures was anticipated to continue to outpace the overall expansion of the economy, though the differential would tend to narrow over time in association with the gradual diminution of increases in sales and profits that was expected to be associated with moderating economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Money growth was damped by a rise in the opportunity cost of holding M2 assets (as typically occurs in periods of policy tightening). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the household sector, the ongoing deceleration in house prices further restrained the growth of home mortgage debt. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Generally speaking, the growth of profits and the related buildup of cash have been broadly distributed across industries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. At the end of the discussion, the Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to explore potential approaches to providing more information about the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy through the SEP. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The persistence of underutilized resources was expected to foster some moderation in core price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The recent depreciation of the dollar, while perhaps putting some upward pressure on prices, would damp the deterioration in net U. S. exports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months, but also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | An environment involving such interest rates could have adverse repercussions on the functioning of some sectors of the money market, but the members agreed that the potential extent of such disruptions would not be sufficient to prevent the Committee from taking advantage of the full scope of conventional easing of the federal funds rate, should that become necessary. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In that vein, several participants noted that inflation expectations had been sensitive to incoming data and to communications regarding monetary policy over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Maintaining low inflation rates reduces the levels of future uncertainties and, hence, increases the scope of investment opportunities. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Equity prices have recently increased considerably, pushing the forward price-earnings ratio further above its historical median (slide). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | From a longer-term perspective we have been guided by a firm commitment to contain any forces that would undermine economic expansion and efficiency by raising inflation, and we have kept our focus firmly on the ultimate goal of achieving price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But if our assessment is correct that inflation is temporary, it would be unwise for us to take actions that might slow the recovery prematurely by trying to stay ahead of inflation, when our best estimate is that we are not far behind. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Potentially, waiting could require more disruptive policy tightening actions later and could risk the credibility of the System's anti-inflation policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Subsequent to monetary union, harmonized consumer prices can be used as the best available measure of inflation in the Euro area. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial and real implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate for tracing price trends over time? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And obviously there are benefits from a strong economy to every household in the economy, including savers, from having a better job market and a more secure economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | President George dissented because she believed that an unchanged setting of policy was appropriate based on the incoming data and the outlook for economic activity over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raising wages noticeably to compete for workers and limit turnover. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In the end, they concurred that the statement should note that economic growth had rebounded in the current quarter but that it appeared likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared for the January FOMC meeting, the staff's projection for the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the near term was revised down a bit. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As always, our actions are guided by our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For instance, monetary policymakers must accurately assess how disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding affect labor markets, household and business spending, output, and prices.7 In deciding whether to alter monetary policy or, instead, to "look through" such shocks, policymakers need to assess the likely persistence of the effects and how widespread they are. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But if our assessment is correct that inflation is temporary, it would be unwise for us to take actions that might slow the recovery prematurely by trying to stay ahead of inflation, when our best estimate is that we are not far behind. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Some price increases had been noted; however, apart from the energy and health care sectors, price inflation had remained relatively subdued, evidently reflecting the combination of diminished growth in overall demand and strong competitive pressures in most markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This supports the view that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If you lay the crosscurrents on top of that—concerns about global growth and trade developments—you have the full picture. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Long-run price stability certainly is essential for achieving maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | There was a lot of pent-up demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Largely as a consequence of rapidly expanding "new economy" investments, gains in productivity had occurred at remarkable rates in recent years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We can best promote a progressive credit climate by maintaining an environment of low inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Scholars disagree somewhat about the extent to which policymakers of the time tried actively to take advantage of this supposed tradeoff, but these ideas likely provided part of the intellectual rationale that made the authorities willing to allow inflation to rise throughout the 1960s and in the early 1970s. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation have also picked up. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, while core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We’re not seeing evidence in labor markets of very substantial upward pressures on labor that could signify extreme shortages of labor that could propel inflation higher in a very rapid way, and inflation is still operating below our objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a pace a little above that of its longer-run potential over this year and next, while hiring was expected to firm some more, resulting in a further decrease in the unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If we don’t see the improvement that’s projected in the baseline outlook, that the June 18, 2014 opposite would be true and the pace of the timing and pace of interest rate increases would be Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL later and more gradual. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We continue to discuss whether or not the unemployment rate itself is an adequate measure of how much underutilization of labor resources there really is. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Even after adjusting for the effects of strikes on reported payrolls, the employment report for August showed weak job gains. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The September FOMC meeting was the first since the Committee approved in August our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and adopted a new policy framework.3 The changes we made in our September FOMC statement bring our policy guidance in line with this new framework. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Of course, we can’t do anything about long-run employment opportunities, but we can help the economy recover more quickly. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Fiscal policy was expected to be somewhat less expansionary next year, though still an important contributor to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Staff Review of the Financial Situation On balance, financial conditions in the United States remained supportive of growth in economic activity and employment: The expected path of the federal funds rate was slightly lower in the long run, yields on longer-term Treasury securities moved down modestly, equity prices rose, corporate bond spreads narrowed, and the foreign exchange value of the dollar was little changed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Consumer price inflation was being held down by weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | One participant suggested that excess liquidity might be leading to speculation in commodity markets, possibly putting upward pressure on prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | All members agreed that the statement to be released after the meeting should convey that inflation risks remained dominant and that consequently keeping policy unchanged at this meeting did not necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The vote also encompassed approval of the sentence below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As keen observers of local economies, the directors here and elsewhere contribute vitally to the formulation of monetary policy by offering important insights absent, by definition, from even the most careful analysis of aggregate data. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The key to explaining why price stability promotes stability in both output and employment is the realization that, when inflation itself is well-controlled, then the public's expectations of inflation will also be low and stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | More information might provide a better sense of how the higher interest rates were affecting aggregate demand and perhaps also help--to a small degree--to shed light on the considerable uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, energy prices were expected to level out, and rents, while difficult to forecast, were viewed by some participants as likely to decelerate in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | the very shortest maturities, and with the additional tightening and deceleration in inflation that is expected over coming quarters, the entire real curve will soon move into positive territory. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We indicated that, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A soft labor market will keep a lid on the growth in the cost of employing workers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In contrast, the rise in oil prices during the 1970s was probably seen at the time as largely reflecting a permanent shift in global demand/supply balances. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In a paper presented at a recent conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kozicki and Tinsley (2003) develop an empirical model of the economy under the assumptions that the Fed's implicit inflation target is subject to permanent shocks and that the public learns about the Fed's target over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, "computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics." | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices, had remained near 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because current inflation is affected by inflation expectations, the smaller increase in expected inflation will lead to a smaller increase in actual inflation as well. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I think we all agree that the economy is making progress, that we are close to an unemployment rate that is one that’s sustainable in the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So, there has been impact through lower interest rates, but I think more broadly is the indirect effects. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Overall, though shifts in business attitudes are difficult to measure, I believe that markets reward businesses that outperform their competitors and that, as demand picks up, companies will respond to opportunities to incorporate technological advances in production, communication, and organization. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Less uncertainty about future inflation could lower the risk premiums on nominal Treasury bonds, lowering the risk-free interest rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | (4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nonetheless, considerable uncertainty surrounded expectations of rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And what is the risk that, in taking such steps, a central bank would be seen by investors as taking on partial responsibility for asset prices? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | There were more reports that rising wages and benefits and increasing costs of nonlabor inputs could no longer be fully offset by improvements in productivity, and more business firms appeared to be attempting or considering increases in their selling prices to maintain or improve their profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Federal Reserve then sets its policy to achieve the broad objectives assigned to it, specifically, price stability and full employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Labor demand remained strong, and the labor market continued to be very tight. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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