label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
|---|---|---|
2 | Measures of longer-term inflation expectations edged up in early January, but remained lower than they had been in all but the last few weeks of 2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | What monetary policy affects, primarily, is the state of the business cycle, the amount of excess unemployment or the extent of recession in the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So we want to see that healthy process unfold as we decide what the true state of the economy is, and we think it will evolve in a way that will mean lower inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The simplest answer is that interest rates should vary to imitate qualitatively the way they would behave if the Fed were implementing a money supply target. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Prices, interest rates, stock prices, and other signals produced by market economies to encourage the distribution of productive resources have no inherent moral content. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The boom was fueled by a sustained acceleration of productivity and an accompanying rise in corporate profits--fundamental changes that justified a major rise in equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Here's a wonderful game: Assume that the ECB governing council or the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee replaced the Federal Open Market Committee and made monetary policy in the United States--or vice versa. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While these studies allow for differences in the weighting of price indexes across different income groups, they rely on the same elementary price indexes for subcategories of goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation.15 Indeed, responding may do more harm than good, particularly in an era where policy rates are much closer to the effective lower bound even in good times. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in household wealth, while Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow; in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software; also, continued solid economic growth abroad was expected to boost the growth of U. S. exports for some period ahead. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Second, the correction in equity prices points to a downward revision to consumer spending and to business fixed investment and residential construction as well. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, investor demand for high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reportedly was robust, although issuance of CMBS remained muted. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This increase was slower than a year earlier, as core PCE price inflation (which excludes changes in consumer food and energy prices) moved down to 1. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Even so, in the absence of major overhangs in inventories of business equipment and consumer durables, and given favorable conditions in financial markets, members believed that a resumption of moderate, sustainable growth after a relatively brief period of weakness was the most likely outlook for the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the same time, however, the staff increased the growth rate forecast for 2006 to reflect the boost to economic activity from the rebuilding effort. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that federal tax increases and spending cuts will slow the pace of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth about 1-1/2 percentage points this year.3 Tight fiscal policy may also be preventing faster reductions in unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Two noted the possibility that sustained high levels of long-term unemployment could result in higher structural unemployment, an outcome that might be forestalled by increased aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As U.S. business investment has recently begun a cyclical recovery while residential investment has remained strong, the domestic saving shortfall has continued to widen, implying a rise in the current account deficit and increasing dependence of the United States on capital inflows.9 According to the story I have sketched thus far, events outside U.S. borders--such as the financial crises that induced emerging-market countries to switch from being international borrowers to international lenders--have played an important role in the evolution of the U.S. current account deficit, with transmission occurring primarily through endogenous changes in equity values, house prices, real interest rates, and the exchange value of the dollar. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, other measures of labor utilization--including the labor force participation rate and the numbers of discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons--suggested more modest improvement, and other indicators of labor demand, such as rates of hiring and quits, remained low. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p. m. : "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | September 01, 2020 Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy Governor Lael Brainard At "How the Fed Will Respond to the COVID-19 Recession in an Era of Low Rates and Low Inflation," an event hosted by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live I want to thank David Wessel for hosting this event. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Also, the recent evidence could be interpreted as indicating that the surprisingly sharp decline in measured inflation in 2003 exaggerated the drop in the underlying rate of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in its own right but also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, we have used some of our work to look at interest rate risk and interest rate sensitivity and, you know, found generally that banks can also sustain a significant increase in long-term interest rates as well for a number of reasons, one of them being that higher interest rates increase their franchise value because it increases their net interest margin over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | We have long said that the size of the balance sheet will be considered normalized when the balance sheet is once again at the smallest level consistent with conducting monetary policy efficiently and effectively. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Well, we—as a Committee, we do not desire inflation undershoots. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | That apparently has not made its way into prices yet, but how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I guess I would also urge you to remember that when you look at the projections, that there are many factors that affect those projections, and changes in tax policy—that’s only one of a number of factors, including incoming data that has, to some extent, altered the outlook for growth and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | An intuitive way of thinking about this rise and fall in inflation persistence is that it resulted from an un-anchoring of trend inflation during the period of the Great Inflation, and a re-anchoring in recent years, as the work of Stock and Watson suggests. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although prospects for economic activity had not deteriorated significantly since the March meeting, the outlook for growth and employment remained weak and slack in resource utilization was likely to increase. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Thus, avoiding a further substantial fall in inflation should be a priority of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Equity prices in most foreign countries were up moderately since the January FOMC meeting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | However, other participants noted that the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from the current level of resource utilization. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Construction employment posted another large increase, probably owing in part to hurricane-related activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Another difficulty in assessing the current amount of slack in the economy, and a third uncertainty, concerns the divergent patterns in alternative measures of excess demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It isn’t the kind of inflation that’s spread broadly across the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a case in point, the increase in the transparency of U.S. monetary policy over the past two decades has been quite significant. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, many members saw some risk that an easing move at this point might trigger a strong further advance in stock market prices that would not be justified on the basis of likely future earnings and could therefore lead to a relatively sharp and disruptive market adjustment later. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Again, the FOMC has done just that through its commitment to adjust policy as required to keep inflation at bay. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Housing demand remained strong, but business fixed investment was still in the doldrums and consumer spending had flagged in late summer before apparently picking up somewhat in the autumn. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | To do that you've got to have price stability, and we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation and where we can have a long expansion too. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable during the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To be sure, financial market signals are noisy, and day-to-day movements in asset prices are unlikely to tell us much about the cyclical or structural position of the economy, let alone r* and expected inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time; such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Most other market interest rates declined further on balance over the period in an atmosphere of greater volatility in financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In any event, it was clear that forecasts in recent years typically had overstated the rise in inflation, and a great deal of uncertainty surrounded the extent to which productivity gains and other factors, some unspecified, might continue to hold down inflation in a period of robust economic growth and relatively tight labor markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | During expansions, equity prices tend to rise, although they often decline before a downturn in the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The number of black-owned firms increased nearly 50 percent and the number of Hispanic-owned firms jumped 80 percent between 1987 and 1992--between two and three times the rate of growth of non-minority-owned firms. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A few participants pointed to continued strong growth in multifamily construction, although the limited pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that activity could slow in 2015. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Still, core consumer price indices remained relatively damped and had risen only a little over the last year, especially when measured by the PCE chain-price index, and that suggested underlying price pressures remained largely contained. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Broad U. S. stock price indexes declined, on net, over the intermeeting period, apparently in response to the downbeat economic data. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The second is intermediate-term need for reserve expansion and contraction, arising, for example, from seasonal changes in the demand for currency and reserves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Conclusion: The Challenge Facing Monetary Policy This analysis suggests that monetary policy does face a challenge--rebalancing aggregate supply and demand to contain the risk of higher inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That said, our model accords the greatest roles to increased productivity growth, which has made the United States a magnet for foreign saving, and to the slump in foreign domestic demand, which has led to an excess of saving in those economies. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Any of these factors might imply that the equilibrium rate relevant for policy returns more quickly to, or even moves above, its long-run level as fewer forces weigh on aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, measures of labor compensation showed only moderate gains while relatively wide profit margins could allow firms to absorb somewhat larger increases in labor and other costs without boosting prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Conclusion To sum up, none of us, obviously, can see the future, and instead we shall have to monitor incoming data closely for evidence of any shifts in recent productivity trends. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher federal funds rate might be acceptable or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable during the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | ” The vote encompassed approval of the text below for inclusion in the statement to be released at 2:15 p. m. : “In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Discussion of Communications Regarding Economic Projections As a follow-up to the FOMC's discussion in October about providing more information on the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy, the staff presented several options for enhancing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation-targeting regimes make sense only if the central bank has independent control of the instruments of monetary policy, as holding the central bank responsible for meeting its inflation target is hardly possible otherwise. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For 1998, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1997 for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Of course, the cost of this critical stabilization was the high unemployment and lost output associated with the sharp 1981-82 recession. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On the other hand, if recent productivity gains were to be sustained, as some business contacts indicated they would be, potential output currently could be higher than standard measures suggested, and the high level of the unemployment rate could be a more accurate indication of slack in resource utilization than usual measures of the output gap. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the conclusion of this discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the expansion in economic activity is still robust. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As of this month, the maximum monthly reduction in the balance sheet will be nearly double the level of the previous cycle.10 Together, the increase in the policy rate and the reduction in the balance sheet should help bring demand into alignment with supply. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demand–supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all but the very shortest maturities, and with the additional tightening and deceleration in inflation that is expected over coming quarters, the entire real curve will soon move into positive territory. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest concern. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This lack of congressional momentum could be interpreted as lack of congressional support for inflation targeting, or it could merely reflect a more neutral absence of strong opinions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In December 1996, before my time at the Board, John Campbell of Harvard and Robert Shiller of Yale made a presentation at the Fed, in which they used dividend-price ratios and related measures to argue that the stock market was overvalued. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Looking ahead, the projected slowing in the growth of final sales, including the effects of weak export markets, likely would reinforce business efforts to bring the growth of their inventories into better alignment with that of their sales, and such a development should contribute to the projected slowing in overall economic activity in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And we’ve seen significant outflows of capital from those countries, pressures on their exchange rates, and concerns about their performance going forward. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | That’s not going to happen without, without restoring price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Despite the progress to date and the signs of acceleration in the recovery, employment is still considerably short of where it was when the pandemic disrupted the economy and it is well below where it should be, considering the pre-pandemic trend. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers, at all. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Now suppose that, in an economy experiencing a stable deflation, the central bank leadership announces a fixed inflation target but then makes no progress toward that target during a given period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If the recent slower rate of price declines on high-tech products implied a softer underlying pace of technological change, both the outlook for investment demand and the prospects for persisting high trend growth in productivity could be damped relative to previous expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And our plan as we do that is, as those purchases get to that level, we believe we can gradually reduce them, and we believe we can also gradually reduce repo as—as we reach an ample level, as we’re satisfying demand now more from underlying reserves from bill purchases rather than from repo. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Most participants expected that, following the slowdown in the first quarter, real economic activity would resume expansion at a moderate pace, and that labor market conditions would improve further. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In its March forecast, the staff's projection for real GDP growth over the medium term was somewhat higher than the one presented in January, mostly reflecting an improved outlook for economic activity abroad, a lower foreign exchange value for the dollar, and a higher projected path of equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.