label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3
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2 | Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in consumer spending, residential housing expenditures, and government outlays slowed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | When interest rates increase, prices will undoubtedly adjust to some extent--in some cases simply by rising less rapidly than they would otherwise--and debt-service obligations will move up. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These geopolitical events also pose downside risks to growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Staff Review of the Financial Situation On balance, financial conditions in the United States remained supportive of growth in economic activity and employment: The expected path of the federal funds rate was slightly lower in the long run, yields on longer-term Treasury securities moved down modestly, equity prices ro... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Survey of Market Participants conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates a shift in expectations following the release of the new monetary policy framework.17 The median expected rate of unemployment at the time of liftoff moved down from 4.5 percent in the July survey, before the release of the fr... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast for economic activity as similar to its normal level over the past 20 years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In particular, the unemployment rates in the metropolitan areas of South Dakota have consistently been lower than in rural areas, and this relative abundance of job opportunities has tended to encourage migration to areas such as Sioux Falls. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation targeting was also associated with increased communication and transparency designed to clarify the central bank's policy intentions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, four out of five countries in this group are expected to post inflation rates between 1 percent and 3 percent this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Measures of longer-term inflation expectations edged up in early January, but remained lower than they had been in all but the last few weeks of 2008. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | First, longer-maturity obligations may be more attractive because of more stable inflation, better-anchored inflation expectations, and a reduction in economic volatility more generally. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | An easing of supply constraints was expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Confirming that variations in growth rates of liquidity (especially unusual changes in liquidity growth that could be called excessive) systematically lead to wide swings in real asset prices requires further theoretical investigation and more empirical support. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We also said we wouldn’t raise rates just in response to very low unemployment, in the absence of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These indicators suggested that the financial system was fairly resilient, as did the absence of a significant increase in funding stresses or margin calls earlier this year when prices of risky assets fell and volatility rose sharply. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants noted that the timing of the resumption of growth in the U. S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place, as well as the success of those measures, and on the responses of other policies, including fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Improved prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China and accommodative monetary policy were cited as driving factors that outweighed weaker-than-expected announcements of corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018 and earnings projections for 2019. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that the expansion in economic activity would slow in coming quarters to a pace somewhat above that of the economy's estimated potential and would moderate a bit further in 1998. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Most participants remarked that the standard of "substantial further progress" had been met with regard to the Committee's price-stability goal or that it was likely to be met soon. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, given the good pace of economic expansion since then, it would stretch credulity to believe that capacity growth has accelerated at a sufficient pace to produce a large degree of slack at this moment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed on balance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The jobs picture continues to be strong, with the unemployment rate near historic lows and with stronger wage gains. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Recent increases in house prices and equity prices were positives, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We’re also, as part of our review, looking at potential innovations, changes to the way we think about things, changes to the framework that would lead us—that would be more supportive of achieving inflation on a 2 percent—on a symmetric 2 percent basis over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some participants also noted that recent readings on some survey measures of consumers' inflation expectations had declined or stood at historically low levels. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Holiday shopping reportedly was relatively solid, and, reflecting the improvement in the housing market, demand for home furnishings and construction materials was up. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In such an environment, a central bank mandated to pursue price stability can be flexible according to the circumstances, while one with a numerical target may need to obtain formal modification of its objectives. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | He also judged that the policy step would do little to improve near-term growth prospects, given the ongoing structural adjustments and external challenges faced by the U. S. economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although the aggregate balance sheet for the household sector was strong and the unemployment rate was low, consumer sentiment had deteriorated, and households were reportedly becoming more cautious in their expenditure decisions in light of uncertainty about the economic outlook and the reduction in purchasing power i... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Their key finding, illustrated in figure 3, is that Federal Reserve policy rate surprises attributed to stronger U.S. growth generally have only moderate spillovers to EM financial conditions, whereas U.S. policy rate changes attributed to U.S. inflationary pressures trigger more substantial spillovers to EM financial ... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Most FOMC participants anticipate that inflation will gradually move up to the FOMC's 2 percent target over coming years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We might look to the historical experience with oil price shocks in the 1970s—not a happy story. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the productivity boom that followed World War I, a chief technological innovation was the spread of electrification to the factory floor. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That is, monetary policy responds to changes in fiscal policy in much the same way that it responds to other influences on the economy, such as equity prices, exchange rates, or the demand for U.S. exports due to changed growth prospects abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Wage growth is not—there are many factors that affect it—it’s not definitive in any sense in determining our policy, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If the demand growth that caused the oil price increases is domestic, it could mean that the price shock might be less permanent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Industrial production picked up in response to the advance in final demand and a slowdown in the runoff of excess inventory stocks. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants commented that demand for labor continued to outstrip available supply across many parts of the economy and that their business contacts continued to report difficulties in hiring and retaining workers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Second, the correction in equity prices points to a downward revision to consumer spending and to business fixed investment and residential construction as well. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At some point, continued large-scale trade deficits could trigger equilibrating, and possibly dislocating, changes in prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff assessed that households were in a better position than in the mid-2000s to weather a downturn in house prices, noting that mortgage debt growth has significantly lagged growth in house prices, leaving households with substantial equity cushions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Many participants commented that measures of short-term inflation expectations were elevated or that far-forward measures of inflation compensation were near the upper edge of their historical range. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the United Kingdom, however, gilt yields declined and the pound weakened against the dollar in response to weaker-than-expected inflation data and to an upward revision by the Bank of England, at its early February policy meeting, of its assessment of the degree of slack in the labor market. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Indeed, the website of the Central Bank of Brazil explicitly acknowledges the role of inflation in driving financial innovations that enabled firms and households to economize on cash balances in that country. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The members concluded that retaining a risk statement weighted toward more inflation pressures would best represent their current thinking, but they believed it was desirable to provide some recognition of the emergence of increased downside risks to the economic expansion in the statement to be released after this mee... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures, although the effect of prior changes in the foreign exchange value of the dollar on core consumer prices had apparently been limited. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The weakness in labor market conditions remained an important concern to meeting participants, with unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | After deteriorating further early in the period, foreign equity prices bounced back and credit spreads on emerging market bonds narrowed, in both cases returning to December levels in most countries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Inflation has declined further below our longer-run objective, largely reflecting the lower energy prices I just mentioned. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This aggregate growth-accounting framework forms the economic underpinning of key comprehensive productivity statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But many other commodity prices have fallen further, and the reason I would give for that is that the emerging markets—China, the rest of Asia, and some other parts of the world—plus Europe, of course, are softer, and so global commodity demand is weaker. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In this case, there may be no problem for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Many participants commented that measures of short-term inflation expectations were elevated or that far-forward measures of inflation compensation were near the upper edge of their historical range. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Fourth and finally, the statement codifies the key lesson from the Global Financial Crisis—that financial stability is necessary for the achievement of our statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But even this relation--between the unemployment rate and the concept of economic slack--is not necessarily constant, and thus a given unemployment rate may not indicate the same level of slack at two separate times. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, we also believe now is a good time to step back and assess whether, and in what possible ways, we can refine our strategy, tools, and communication practices to achieve and maintain our goals as consistently and robustly as possible.2 With the U.S. economy operating at or close to maximum employment and price ... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While recognizing the value of smoothing, I still feel that in the interest rate targeting regime the Fed now uses, we should at times be ready to change interest rates quite quickly in response to economic conditions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So on the first, the Committee’s forecasts and those of most outside forecasters do show growth running below its longer-run potential this year and next year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at th... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The information reviewed at this meeting indicated that economic activity had turned up in the final quarter of last year and strengthened further since then. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Particularly in light of persistent low readings on inflation and from indicators of inflation expectations along with the risks to the U. S. outlook associated with global economic developments, he noted that a policy rate reduction at the current meeting would help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at le... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The effects of reduced monetary and fiscal policy stimulus were expected to be counterbalanced by continued low long-term interest rates and an abatement of energy-related headwinds. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | More subtly, my conclusion that the effects on inflation of transitory changes in commodity prices or in the value of the dollar tend to dissipate in the longer run depends on the assumption that the public's inflation expectations are well anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was lower than the staff expected at the time of the November meeting, and the staff forecast anticipated that core PCE prices would rise a bit more slowly in 2011 and 2012 than previously projected. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants expected that fiscal policy would continue to be a drag on economic growth over coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market while maintaining low and stable inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Nonetheless, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some occasions call for significant swings in currency or reserves because of seasonal demands for cash and loans. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Any of these factors might imply that the equilibrium rate relevant for policy returns more quickly to, or even moves above, its long-run level as fewer forces weigh on aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | While moderating the pace of purchases and the eventual increase in the federal funds rate may well affect capital flows, interest rates and asset prices in EMEs, the overall macroeconomic effects need not be disruptive. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, the historical record suggests that permanently lowering inflation expectations may require keeping monetary policy tight for a substantial period, resulting in considerable output and employment losses for a time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account issue. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But what if the Fed were actually to propose a soft form of inflation targeting? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Broad equity prices rose, adding to their substantial gains since the middle of 2010. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Ultimately inflation is determined by the policy actions of the central bank. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Persistently strong demand and increasingly supportive conditions in debt and equity markets suggested the possibility of rising inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Now, we’ve long expected, as most analysts have, to see some slowing in Chinese growth over time as they rebalance their economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Relative to the average episode, commercial real estate prices neither fell much during the recession nor rose a lot during the expansion. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In light of these uncertainties as well as continued evidence of muted inflation pressures, participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s, but success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Following the deepest plunge since the Great Depression, employment and activity rebounded faster and more sharply than anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward wi... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Because they cannot rule out the chance that some asset prices might correct more than anticipated, policymakers must consider how the economy might withstand such a correction. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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