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0 | Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So, there has been impact through lower interest rates, but I think more broadly is the indirect effects. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some members expressed concern about the longer-run prospects for large federal deficits and their implications for the future performance of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Monetary policy has an ambiguous effect on trade imbalances. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In a nutshell, I believe that the factors of globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, arising partly in response to episodes of high inflation, have effectively eroded the central bank monopoly on the provision of monetary services and have enhanced global competition among currencies. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And I think, more broadly, monetary policy is also supporting household spending and home buying by keeping the labor market strong, keeping workers’ incomes rising, and keeping consumer confidence at high levels, where it currently is. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A third factor underpinning longer-run prospects for growth is the sustained strong uptrend in labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The U. S. international trade deficit narrowed in May, as a large increase in exports of goods and services more than offset a moderate increase in imports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks; the downside risks to the forecast of economic activity were seen as more pronounced than in December, mainly reflecting the greater uncertainty about global economic prospects and the financial market turbulence in the United States and abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members commented that the statistical and anecdotal information that had become available since the October meeting continued to point to robust growth in overall economic activity, despite some indications of softening in interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Pressures on resources would rise as the anticipated upturn and possible above-trend growth brought the economy closer to full capacity utilization. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With respect to this particular part of the District, Jack may discuss Florida's citrus crop, the relative health of the tourism industry, and trends in Florida real estate prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources; but with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So you’re right, you’re seeing—I, I can’t remember the number, but it might be in the 3s—3, 3½ percent growth for next year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Much of this performance was fueled by an investment boom that also contributed importantly to rapid growth in labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Others indicated that because part of the recent decline in the jobless rate was associated with a reduction in labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate likely overstated the overall improvement in the labor market. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Their forecasts of consumer price inflation for the year, as measured by the PCE chain-type price index, were centered in a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, with a full range of 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In those Districts in which activity had been adversely affected by the drop in energy prices, drilling activity was either contracting less rapidly or was stabilizing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Productivity and the equilibrium real interest rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the general price level with some precision. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That central bank independence promotes lower inflation in developed countries is well-established by the economic literature. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, this shortfall partly reflected the earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports, and some participants pointed out that, by some measures, the most recent monthly inflation readings had firmed a bit. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We all saw the remarkable price increases and shortages in the used car market. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A potential negative cited by some members was the possibility that a weak job market, should it persist, would at some point adversely affect overall consumer sentiment and willingness to spend. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | "2 One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some members observed that while slower growth in consumer spending was the most probable forecast, they saw an upside risk from the wealth effects of the large rise that had occurred in the value of stock market holdings. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, participants expected inflation to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time and the labor market to remain strong. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | I will focus my remarks today on the use of explicit forward guidance as a tool for monetary policy.1 Before I start, let me briefly discuss near-term monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | For inflation, we can use the 12-month change in core PCE prices, a measure of the current underlying rate of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had been little changed in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Admittedly, some of the wage increases is being eaten away by inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The U. S. trade deficit in goods and services widened substantially in January and February from its fourth-quarter average, with exports falling sharply and imports rising strongly. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Back then, FOMC participants were forecasting unemployment rates around 7-3/4 percent and 7 percent for year-end 2013 and 2014, respectively, in our Summary of Economic Projections; as of the June 2013 round, these forecasts have been revised down roughly 1/2 percentage point each. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Such a jump could raise core inflation temporarily if it is passed through to other prices or if it contributes to increasing inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Output was forecast to expand at a rate a little above the staff's estimate of its potential rate of growth in 2019 through 2021 and then to slow to a pace slightly below potential output growth in 2022. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Monetary Policy Spillovers Flow in Both Directions There is a vast literature that documents the existence of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy, especially to emerging markets (EMs). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, Robert Lucas and others reached more dramatic conclusions, arguing that only unpredictable movements in monetary policy can affect the real economy and concluding that policy has no capacity to smooth the business cycle (Lucas, 1972; Sargent and Wallace, 1975). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The projection for core PCE price inflation in 2008 was raised slightly in response to elevated readings in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Price shocks. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For equities, a stock's price-earnings ratio is a standard benchmark for assessing valuation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables was expected to be appreciably below the rapid pace in the first half of last year, and housing demand would increase only a little from its recent level. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To the extent that these producers are foreign, there should be a corresponding drop in domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In addition, the dramatic advances in biotechnology are significantly increasing a broad range of productivity-expanding efforts in areas from agriculture to medicine. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Mr. Plosser noted that the Committee could not afford to wait until there was clear evidence that inflation expectations were no longer anchored, as by then it would be too late to prevent a further increase in inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | What I’m telling you is that the stance of monetary policy we have today, we believe, is appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | 1 Chair Yellen intended to say that “interest rate differentials globally do tend to induce capital flows that have impacts on exchange rates.” GREG ROBB. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | By getting unemployment down, we hope to bring back to work some of the people who’ve been out of work as long as they have and, in that respect, try to avoid the longer-term consequences of people being out of work for months at a time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We have long said that the size of the balance sheet will be considered normalized when the balance sheet is once again at the smallest level consistent with conducting monetary policy efficiently and effectively. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This was also an era when the principal mortgage lenders, savings and loans, were sometimes constrained from satisfying mortgage demands by binding Regulation Q ceilings that eroded their deposit base when interest rates rose. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Not surprisingly, the projected path of above-trend GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 translates into rapid declines in the projected path for the unemployment rate, which is projected to fall to 3.8 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2023. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is now generally recognized that price stability is a prerequisite for the efficient allocation of resources in our economy and, indeed, for fulfilling our ultimate mandate to promote maximum sustainable employment over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | That's particularly important, because the lags in the effect of policy on economic activity and prices mean that policy decisions are necessarily based on a view of the likely path for the economy over several years, relative to the Federal Reserve's legislated objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | (4') U** = U* - (1/b) [q - q*] U** = short-run or effective NAIRU However, once productivity growth stabilizes at a higher level, q* will eventually catch up to q, and the disinflationary effect will gradually diminish and then completely disappear. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005 | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and the pass-through of higher energy costs into prices of non-energy goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices were holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Core consumer inflation had moved lower, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation pressures remain muted, and indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are at the lower end of their historic ranges. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Economic DevelopmentsReal economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The latter could well be augmented by sharply rising medical costs and by attempts to protect the purchasing power of wages from the erosion caused by the rise in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Many of them expected that inflation was likely to rise gradually over the medium term, as resource slack diminished and inflation expectations remained stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The civilian unemployment rate was 4. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Conclusion The United States productivity growth spurt, realized to a much lesser extent around the world, can be attributed largely to a combination of an investment boom and a technological revolution. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As reflected in their SEP projections, participants regarded the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time as long as incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval, and suggest how lessons from history and a careful focus on incoming data and the evolving risks offer useful guidance for today's unique monetary policy challenges. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In spite of having such slow growth, disappointing productivity growth, we have a labor market that last year generated an average of about 230,000 jobs a month and so far this year has been generating about 180,000 jobs a month. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | I would say, in the area of commercial real estate, while valuations are high, we are seeing some tightening of lending standards and less debt growth associated with that rise in commercial real estate prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | If you look at the number of job openings compared to the number of unemployed, it’s—we’re, we’re clearly on a path to a very strong labor market with high participation, low unemployment, high employment, wages moving up across the spectrum. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As I mentioned, once you—once you’re, broadly speaking, in the range of neutral, I think it’s appropriate to be putting aside individual estimates of that and be looking at what the incoming data are telling you about the outlook, updating your estimates of what neutral might be, of what the natural rate of unemployment might be, of the state of the economy, so—and letting that lead you to adjust your outlook and, therefore, your appropriate path for policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March FOMC meeting, real GDP growth was revised down somewhat in the near term, largely reflecting the federal spending sequestration that went into effect on March 1 and the resulting drag from reduced government purchases. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We take the level of the stock market into account when we consider the economic outlook and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Comparing the Theoretical Prediction to Recent Experience The swing from budget deficit to surplus has been much more dramatic than was expected when the fiscal year 1994 budget was adopted. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As a result, national saving increased, providing further impetus to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U. S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U. S. economy; a larger-than-expected U. S. fiscal tightening; and the possibility of a further slowdown in global economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee saw no need for tightening policy in the near future. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The remarkable coming together of technologies that we label IT has allowed us to move beyond efficiency gains in routine manual tasks to achieve new levels of productivity in routine information-processing tasks that previously depended upon other facets of human input--computing, sorting and retrieving information, and acting on pieces of information. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Our test for this step was making "substantial further progress" toward our employment and inflation goals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And I really don’t have much for you other than to say that they will be data dependent—that, over time, the stance of policy will be adjusted to try to keep the economy on a track where we see continuing progress toward achieving our goals of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While participants viewed the downside risks to their forecasts of economic activity over the projection period as having diminished, their assessment of the most likely outcomes for economic activity and inflation over the projection period was not greatly changed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011; as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants expected that, with further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, economic activity would expand at a solid rate during the remainder of this year and a moderate pace in the medium term, and that labor market conditions would remain strong. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In contrast, CRE loan growth at banks was weak in July and August, likely partly driven by the recovery of CMBS markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consumer food prices were little changed in August. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So the—the sooner we get the virus under control, the sooner people can regain that confidence and regain their economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Looking beyond this spring, my views on the appropriate pace of interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction for this year and beyond will depend on how the economy evolves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Despite the progress to date and the signs of acceleration in the recovery, employment is still considerably short of where it was when the pandemic disrupted the economy and it is well below where it should be, considering the pre-pandemic trend. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We also do see the different measures of slack in the labor market point to different assessments of just what maximum employment is. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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