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0 | With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | It would have been difficult for the Committee to put forward a 7 percent unemployment goal when the current program started and unemployment was 8.1 percent; this would have involved a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of asset purchases required to reach this goal. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We also don’t conduct monetary policy in order to prove our independence. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The monitoring range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial debt was set at 3 to 7 percent for the year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account issue. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To keep the experiments as clean as possible, I assume that the economy begins at full employment and with both headline and core inflation at desired levels. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Conversely, perhaps the transitory factors boosting productivity will recede more sharply than most observers anticipate, and the output gap will close more rapidly. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The challenge is to set a strategy that respects this uncertainty, takes advantages of opportunities for better performance, while mitigating the risks of overtaxing the limits of sustainable production and growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The steepening of the yield curve was due mostly to sharply lower short- and intermediate-term forward rates, consistent with investors' apparently more pessimistic outlook for economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the course of the Committee's discussion of the outlook for inflation, members commented that there was no persuasive evidence in recent statistical measures that price inflation was currently picking up or that inflation expectations were rising, though the declines in both inflation and expectations experienced over the course of recent years no longer seemed to be occurring. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Members also agreed that their evaluation of progress on their objectives would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover but remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But overly optimistic expectations for long-run earnings growth were not being driven by easy money, and I see no reason to believe that an extra 50 or even 100 basis points on the funds rate would have had much of a damping effect on investor beliefs in the potential profitability of emerging technologies. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial market implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate to trace price trends over time? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In their discussion of prices, participants indicated that data over the intermeeting period, including measures of inflation expectations, suggested that underlying inflation was not in the process of moving higher. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Therefore, monetary policy in Japan might be affected not only by views about how such policies would affect macroeconomic performance, for given fiscal policies, but also by views about how fiscal policy might adjust to monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, the fact that most other industrial countries did not experience the same increase in productivity growth as the United States during that period, even as they became more open to trade, suggests that the relationship between productivity and trade may be complex. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The idea is that providing more information about the Committee's views of the economic outlook may allow financial market prices to reflect more accurately the likely future stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | May 26, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles At the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, David, and thank you to Brookings and the Hutchins Center for the opportunity to lead things off and be part of this very distinguished panel. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | One branch of economists holds the view that monetary policy should not be influenced by any perceived financial market bubbles. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As long as the Federal Reserve is required to set and report ranges for money and debt growth, it should update them as appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers, at all. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In this less comfortable world, restoring price stability can involve a painful process of slow growth and elevated unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Real residential investment appeared to have declined again in the fourth quarter, likely reflecting in part decreases in the affordability of housing arising from both the net increase in mortgage interest rates over the past year and ongoing, though somewhat slower, house price appreciation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But change is hard and not everyone is willing or able to pay the price. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Later in the period, AFE yields partially rebounded and foreign equity prices fully recovered on some easing of U. S. –China trade tensions, as well as perceptions of reduced political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and Italy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants commented that demand for labor continued to outstrip available supply across many parts of the economy and that their business contacts continued to report difficulties in hiring and retaining workers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The result could be cross-border spillovers from the increase in U.S. domestic demand, reducing the effect on U.S. real activity and inflation and potentially contributing to external imbalances. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It was the year of synchronized global growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | More recent data are not available, but I suspect that trend has continued since 1992 as the strong performance of the economy, coupled with generally ample availability of credit, has created an environment conducive to the birth and growth of innovative enterprises of all ownership types. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For asset purchases, the Committee declared that tapering would wait "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Several other participants, however, noted that increases in excess reserves or the monetary base, by themselves, might not have a significant stimulative effect on the economy or prices because the normal bank intermediation mechanism appeared to be impaired, and banks may not be willing to lend their excess reserves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We are hopeful that Europe will take additional measures and do all that’s necessary to stabilize the situation and to provide the basis for an ongoing stable structure that—in which banks and sovereigns are both stabilized, in which there’s a program for growth, and in which fiscal arrangements are clear—are made much clearer. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The civilian unemployment rate was 4. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The several extensions of emergency unemployment insurance benefits appeared to have raised the measured unemployment rate, relative to levels recorded in past downturns, by encouraging some who have lost their jobs to remain in the labor force. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With regard to the outlook for inflation, members referred to widespread indications of increasingly tight labor markets and to statistical and anecdotal reports of faster increases in labor compensation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although we are hearing some reports of large retailers planning markdowns due to excess inventories, we do not have hard data at an aggregate level suggesting that businesses are reducing margins in response to more price sensitivity among customers. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And we’d like to see that in the form of a series of declining monthly inflation readings—that’s what we’re looking for. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Although participants considered it unlikely that the economy would reenter a recession, many expressed concern that output growth, and the associated progress in reducing the level of unemployment, could be slow for some time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But even this relation--between the unemployment rate and the concept of economic slack--is not necessarily constant, and thus a given unemployment rate may not indicate the same level of slack at two separate times. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Many participants noted that they expected household spending to be a primary contributor to economic growth going forward. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the household sector, the rise in home mortgage debt likely slowed a bit further in the first quarter, as home-price appreciation appeared to have remained sluggish. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A few participants judged that while the labor market was close to full employment, some margins of slack remained; these participants pointed to the employment-to-population ratio or the labor force participation rate for prime-age workers, which remained below pre-recession levels, as well as the absence to date of clear signs of a pickup in aggregate wage growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consumer price inflation had remained relatively subdued over the summer months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some occasions call for significant swings in currency or reserves because of seasonal demands for cash and loans. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In December, the consumer price index (CPI) rose somewhat faster than in recent months, primarily reflecting an upturn in consumer energy prices; core CPI inflation remained low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, meeting participants--the 7 members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC--submitted their assessments of real output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the target federal funds rate for each year from 2013 through 2015 and over the longer run, under each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | After robust growth in the second quarter, M2 decelerated somewhat and M3 was about unchanged in July. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Broad equity price indexes fell sharply over the intermeeting period on net. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So, if we maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for a very long time from here and the economy performs as we expect—namely, it’s strong and the risks that are out there don’t materialize—my concern will be that we will have much more tightening in labor markets than you see in these projections. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In fact, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expanded access to mortgage credit has helped fuel substantial growth in homeownership. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | You might ask: Does successful monetary policymaking really require all this additional knowledge? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But my colleagues and I continue to believe that the factors that are responsible this year for holding inflation down are likely to prove transitory. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | growth in the far larger part of the services economy, which has led to low unemployment, good job creation, rising wages, that’s kind of the two big pieces of it that you see. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Stock prices and existing home sales are somewhat correlated, a not altogether unexpected result, because each is affected by interest rates and presumably the gains from each help finance the other. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, household spending had been relatively robust during the cyclical downturn and likely had only limited room for a pickup over coming quarters, and intense competitive pressures could well constrain profits, investment, and equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In contrast, in cases in which variations in the demand for reserves or in external factors affecting reserve supply appear likely to be temporary, the Desk typically prefers to conduct open-market operations through short-term or long-term repurchase agreements, known as repos. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was expected to be gradual. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Using more-conventional specifications of Phillips curves, the research at the Federal Reserve Board (Ihrig and others, 2007) and the OECD (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006), as well as Ball (2006), finds that foreign output gaps are not important determinants of domestic inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Inflation compensation for 2007 declined modestly, perhaps reflecting the further drop in spot energy prices, but was largely unchanged at longer maturities. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | in contrast, however, overall business investment in equipment and software was projected to strengthen in response to the upward trend in replacement demand, especially for computers and software | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Whether one looks at trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratios, equity risk premiums, or option prices, there is little basis for arguing that markets show excessive optimism about future returns. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The prospect of additional fiscal stimulus likely contributed to a steeper U. S. Treasury yield curve, increased inflation compensation, and broad dollar depreciation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | When the government runs deficits, it siphons off private savings (reducing national saving), leaving less available for capital investment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These participants cited, for example, the still-elevated levels of long-term unemployment and workers employed part time for economic reasons as well as low labor force participation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, the deficit was up appreciably from its average for the first quarter, with the value of imports increasing substantially more than the value of exports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, the potential for significant further weakening in housing activity and home prices represented a downside risk to the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Most Committee members, while acknowledging the deficiencies of structural models, viewed them as useful in their efforts to understand how the inflation process was changing and also as input to inflation forecasts. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In practice, the Fed operates through a committee structure and considers the recommendations of a variety of monetary rules as we make monetary policy decisions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important in determining the pattern of core and overall inflation rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Labor market conditions had improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; taken as a whole, labor market indicators suggested that the underutilization of labor resources was continuing to diminish. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | They also generally expected that inflation would remain, for some time, below levels the Committee considers most consistent, over the longer run, with maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These communications were, as you would expect, biased--they were all in response to decisions to raise interest rates and most often occurred when those increases came shortly before an election. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Expansion of these two monetary aggregates was supported by further rapid expansion in the demand for currency and stronger inflows to retail money market funds at a time of weakness in U. S. bond and equity markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The staff also reported that in the leveraged loan market risk spreads had narrowed and nonprice terms had loosened further. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the difficulties that we face in interpreting their movements, and, I hope, to stimulate further research in this already fertile field.1 At the Federal Reserve, we pay a lot of attention to financial market prices in the formulation of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This is a tangible recent example of the need both to judge how the equilibrium real interest rate that is relevant for policy might have changed from a perceived long-run level and to set policy against the background of such an understanding. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Broad equity price indexes decreased slightly, on net, as substantial early gains arising from investors' improved perceptions about the inflation outlook and better-than-feared second-quarter earnings were more than offset by later losses arising from expectations that the Committee would follow a more restrictive policy than previously expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180, 000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So I think, through all of those channels, monetary policy works. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | We continue to discuss whether or not the unemployment rate itself is an adequate measure of how much underutilization of labor resources there really is. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That is, it was thought that by accepting a modest increase in the inflation rate, policy could achieve a permanently lower rate of unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Implications for Monetary Policy In summary, there appears to be some possibility that the recent trend toward disinflation will continue, primarily because of the potentially large amount of economic slack in the system. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But the importance of price stability has sometimes been insufficiently appreciated in our central bank's history, and, as Allan Meltzer will soon point out, such episodes have had unfortunate consequences. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Long-term government bond yields declined and headline equity indexes increased, on net, in most of these countries, with bank stock prices in the euro area rising more than broader indexes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Theory also teaches that the increase in the rate of return on capital--even if generated by a rise in the growth rate of technical change--ultimately requires an increase in real market interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Depository institutions continued to bid aggressively for 28-day funds at the Term Auction Facility (TAF) during the intermeeting period, and demand for funds was strong at both of the 84-day TAF auctions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Although a spike in energy prices eroded real income growth in the second quarter, there were solid gains in wages and salaries. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the near term, 12-month measures of PCE inflation are expected to move above 2 percent as the very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation and past increases in oil prices pass through to consumer energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The effects of the saving outflow may thus have been felt disproportionately on U.S. interest rates and the dollar. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But you do see growth in services, so you—this pattern around the world of Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL weak manufacturing | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But what does this mean for monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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