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2 | "6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a new economy, and that potential and actual output were likely understated in official statistics. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In this regard the risks of rising inflation could not be dismissed, and while those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Domestic respondents to the April SLOOS generally reported tightening their lending standards and experiencing weaker loan demand across all major CRE loan categories during the first quarter. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened, while several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity price... | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In addition, contacts reported that softer export sales, weaker economic activity abroad, and elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the global outlook were weighing on business sentiment and leading firms to reassess plans for investment spending. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | First, with more complete information available, markets will price financial assets more efficiently. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If we don’t see the improvement that’s projected in the baseline outlook, that the June 18, 2014 opposite would be true and the pace of the timing and pace of interest rate increases would be Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL later and more gradual. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a result, as in the January forecast, real GDP was expected to rise at a moderate pace over 2011 and 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy, increasing credit availability, and greater household and business confidence. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The slower growth of final spending resulted in inventory overhangs in a number of industries, most notably those related to the motor vehicle sector. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Several participants noted ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector, including those associated with increased trade uncertainty, weak export demand, and the effects of wet weather and severe flooding. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These are, you know, this is—this is the economy at nearly full employment or in the range—in the neighborhood of full employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nonetheless, employment is still 9.5 million below its pre-pandemic level for the economy as a whole. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But if the economy instead began to overheat, threatening to push inflation to an undesirably high level, the FOMC would have ample scope to respond through tighter monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Projections of the rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, had a central tendency of 1-3/4 to 2-1/4 percent, on the high side of the outcome for 1997 when the rise in the index was held down by damped increases in food prices and declines in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Fiscal policy, on the other hand, can be an instrument of growth policy, through its effect on national saving via the structural budget deficit, through incentive effects on work, saving and investment via tax rates and tax structure, and through public investment in human capital and physical infrastructure. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Well, our policy approach doesn’t involve intentionally trying to raise inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Retail energy prices were likely to retrace at least a portion of the post-hurricane increase, and consumer confidence should rebound. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Weekly data for March, however, indicated that gasoline prices rose sharply. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It is now generally recognized that price stability is a prerequisite for the efficient allocation of resources in our economy and, indeed, for fulfilling our ultimate mandate to promote maximum sustainable employment over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A number of business contacts indicated that they were passing on at least a portion of these higher costs to their customers or that they planned to try to do so later this year; however, contacts were uncertain about the extent to which they could raise prices, given current market conditions and the cautious attitud... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | That means that we can run at low levels of unemployment and have a historically good—in some dimensions—labor market without having to worry about inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Increasingly, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable, but some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Monetary policy, maximum employment, stable prices—it’s less obvious to me. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With regard to our price-stability mandate, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Phillips curve has become, according to most estimates, quite flat in the sense that movements in unemployment have only a modest impact on inflation, so we shouldn’t overblow how large that is. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, we now know that an unexpected and unrecognized slowdown in productivity growth occurred in 1973. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And then we’ll look to have that just running in the background and have—and have the interest rates, again, be the active tool of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So for many, many years, we’ve been far from maximum employment and stable prices, and so the need for accommodative policy has been—has been clear. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Many indicated that they expected cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | With regard to the federal sector, spending related to last year’s hurricanes appeared likely to abate, and federal expenditures overall would probably be providing less impetus to aggregate demand going forward. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | It isn’t really just targeting the headline numbers, but it’s about taking all of those things into account in your thinking about what constitutes maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Developments during the Second Period: 1998-2007 Research during the past ten years has been very fruitful in expanding the profession's understanding of the implications of uncertainty for the design and conduct of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff's June projections for the unemployment rate, real GDP growth, and inflation over the next few years were all a little lower, on balance, than those in its March forecast. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In light of the robust expansion of capital spending thus far this year, the outlook for business investment spending was revised up appreciably, as more of the strength over the latter part of 2004 was attributed to underlying demand and less to the effects of the partial-expensing tax provision. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And the way I would explain it is, is that inflation that’s too low will mean that interest rates are lower. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | "6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a new economy, and that potential and actual output were likely understated in official statistics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In addition, to address the sizable demand for dollar funding in foreign jurisdictions, the FOMC authorized the expansion of its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank; by the end of the intermeeting period, the formal quantity limits on these lines had been eliminated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With the restraint from fiscal policy assumed to increase next year, the staff projected that increases in real GDP would not significantly exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nonetheless, participants noted a risk that the drop-back in inflation could be slower or more limited than the Committee would find desirable since resource utilization was currently tight and the pickup in price increases had been broadly based rather than being limited to a few specific sectors that could be linked ... | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As a consequence, a sustainable, non-inflationary expansion is likely to involve some moderation in the growth of economic activity to a rate more consistent with the expansion of the nation’s underlying productive capacity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Without the accompanying boost to productivity, our progress toward price stability might well have been marked by the social pressures that arose in many previous episodes of disinflation both here and abroad. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | That said, our model accords the greatest roles to increased productivity growth, which has made the United States a magnet for foreign saving, and to the slump in foreign domestic demand, which has led to an excess of saving in those economies. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nevertheless, the role of this consideration in inflation dynamics should not be overlooked or underestimated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The severity of the 1981-82 recession, the worst of the postwar period, clearly illustrates the danger of letting inflation get out of control. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In some models, these factors can be explicitly tied to observable economic variables, such as inflation; in other models, the factors represent statistical summaries of the data and have no explicit economic interpretations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consumer prices had edged up in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As you said, falling oil prices pull down inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | wholesale prices edged up in March relative to their level of a year earlier and posted the first increase on a twelve-month basis since July 2000. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The authors’ principal empirical finding is that the onset and, to a lesser degree, the end of the Great Inflation were closely synchronized across a number of countries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Increased rates and a smaller balance sheet raise the cost of borrowing and thus reduce household and business demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and some of the initiatives we have announced to support the flow of credit to households and firms during these challenging times. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So and, and, you know, the shorter-term ones do tend to move around based on, for example, gasoline prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Consumer prices had edged up in recent months, but year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In dissenting, Mr. Meyer noted that although the money growth ranges do not play an important role in the conduct of monetary policy today, Congress has mandated that the FOMC set and report ranges for money and credit growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Accelerating productivity poses a significant complication for economic forecasting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Many noted that the slowdown could be a temporary aberration and that other labor market indicators--such as new claims for unemployment insurance, the rate of job openings, and readings on consumers' perceptions of the labor market--remained positive. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Labor markets appeared to be stabilizing as private nonfarm payrolls grew in September for the first time since January, and employment losses in July and August turned out to be smaller than data initially had indicated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants' concerns about inflation prospects generally had increased over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The absence of further large gains in stock prices, should recent trends persist, would remove this stimulus and probably induce some moderation in the growth of consumer spending. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants expected that fiscal policy would continue to be a drag on economic growth over coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The recent decline in mortgage rates had sparked some refinancing and purchase activity, but the extent of the longer-term impact of lower rates on housing demand remained uncertain. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | It is an honor to be here with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who pioneered the original Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy in 2012. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Indeed, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined in July that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest recession on record, but also the briefest.2 The recovery that commenced in the summer of 2020 was quite robust, and, w... | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And part of that just is the effect of lower interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As technical change increases demand for skilled relative to unskilled labor, the unskilled workers must acquire new skills, find new jobs at lower relative wages, or become unemployed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Members commented that added fiscal stimulus might prove to be a useful complement to an accommodative monetary policy in the period immediately ahead when economic activity was likely to remain below the economy's potential. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The recent strains in financial markets posed additional downside risks to economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Many observed, however, that a favorable outcome to the hostilities in the Middle East and lower oil prices in line with quotations in futures markets should generate a positive response in equity markets, boost consumer sentiment, and foster a rebound in consumer spending as the year progressed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | During the period examined, the rate of overall consumer inflation was 2.78 percent, as measured by the regular CPI-U for All Items. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And the equity market itself has been the subject of analysis as we attempt to assess the implications for financial and economic stability of the extraordinary rise in equity prices--a rise based apparently on continuing upward revisions in estimates of our corporations' already robust long-term earning prospects. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | We include these types of price terms today in our forecasting equations, and they are important to forming our views of the inflation outlook and thus to the policy process. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Low readings on overall and core consumer price inflation in recent months, as well as the weakened economic outlook, kept near-term inflation expectations reported in surveys well below their high levels in mid-2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Well, that’s—what’s happening there is the fact that the relationship between resource utilization, or unemployment, and inflation has just gotten weaker and weaker over the years. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And inflation is moving—moving up, I think, toward our 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raising wages noticeably to compete for workers and limit turnover. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Fischer, Sahay, and Vegh (2002) present evidence of a strong correlation between fiscal deficits and money creation in high-inflation economies. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The outbreak has also disrupted economic activity in many countries and has prompted significant movements in financial markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Monetary policy has a role, and it really is in, you know—our original role was providing liquidity to financial systems when they’re under stress, and that’s—that’s really part of what we did today. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The producer price index for core intermediate materials dropped for a fifth month in February, reflecting, in part, weaker global demand and steep declines in the prices of a wide variety of energy-intensive goods, such as chemicals and plastics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Does the rapid growth in cross-border capital flows limit or even eliminate the ability of domestic monetary policy to affect domestic interest rates? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Inflation was still expected to be somewhat higher this year than last year, largely reflecting an upturn in the prices for food and non-energy imports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In fact, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expanded access to mortgage credit has helped fuel substantial growth in homeownership. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So, up until the first week of October 2021, the story of high inflation being temporary was holding up, and the labor market improvements had slowed but were continuing. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | During the five years before the crisis, core goods made a small negative contribution to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants' forecasts for economic growth for 2012 and 2013 were largely unchanged from their January projections and continued to indicate expectations that the recovery will strengthen somewhat over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financ... | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So we do say that risks to the financial system—we say in our longer-run statement of goals and monetary policy strategy that risks to the financial system that could prevent us from achieving our goals are something that we do take into consideration. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Since June, however, inflation fears have receded, and some financial-market participants have become less optimistic about the economy's near-term growth prospects. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff's forecast for inflation was basically unchanged from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The July-August deficit in U. S. trade in goods and services was higher than its average in the second quarter, as further growth in imports exceeded the rise in exports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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