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2 | It is important to note, however, that although sound policy undoubtedly helped create the conditions for growth, macroeconomic policy cannot create growth itself. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In addition, the median estimate of the longer-run normal unemployment rate moved down a tenth to 4.6 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Participants' assessments of the economic outlook were little changed, with the intermeeting information generally seen as suggesting that economic growth would remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonfarm payroll employment continued to expand through July and the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 4. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And, and those are—that’s again—that goes to keeping this episode as short as it can be and avoiding unnecessary business bankruptcies, unnecessary household bankruptcies, and unnecessary long-term stays of unemployment or supporting people through them so that they can maintain their financial footing and their lives and be able to go back to work in a productive way. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The economy continued to perform well into 2007, with solid growth through the third quarter and unemployment remaining near recent lows. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Household expenditures on new homes were likewise at an elevated level, although members reported weakness in some price segments and geographic areas of the housing market. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Particularly in light of persistent low readings on inflation and from indicators of inflation expectations along with the risks to the U. S. outlook associated with global economic developments, he noted that a policy rate reduction at the current meeting would help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at levels consistent with the Committee's symmetric 2 percent inflation objective and simultaneously provide some insurance against unexpected developments that could slow U. S. economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | While the underlying demand for residential housing continued to be robust and government outlays evidently were rising, the expansion of consumer spending seemed to have slowed, and outlays for capital spending were still very sluggish in an environment of business uncertainty and pessimism. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two coequal objectives of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and welfare, also affect NAIRU. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is the right level of equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The challenge is to set a strategy that respects this uncertainty, takes advantages of opportunities for better performance, while mitigating the risks of overtaxing the limits of sustainable production and growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75 to 2 percent, which compares with the range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent that prevailed between December 2018 and July 2019. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I should note that growth itself does not cause inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Because equity valuations may pose asymmetric risks to the economic forecast, the implied optimal responses of policy to changes in asset prices may be nonlinear. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These communications were, as you would expect, biased--they were all in response to decisions to raise interest rates and most often occurred when those increases came shortly before an election. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Similarly, I don't think we yet fully understand the role of Year 2000 preparations in either the late 1990s investment boom or the acceleration in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Labor markets appeared to be stabilizing as private nonfarm payrolls grew in September for the first time since January, and employment losses in July and August turned out to be smaller than data initially had indicated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But strong demand and a very tight labor market have also contributed to inflation pressures, and the FOMC can help alleviate those pressures by removing the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation that is no longer needed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although readings on core inflation had improved modestly since the spring, nearly all participants viewed core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In practice, the Fed operates through a committee structure and considers the recommendations of a variety of monetary rules as we make monetary policy decisions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I shall endeavor to place this most unusual phenomenon in the context of the broader changes in our economy and, hopefully, explain why the value of education, especially to enhance advanced skills, is so vital to the future growth of our economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And productivity’s been very low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important in determining the pattern of core and overall inflation rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As illustrated by the left-hand panel of figure 6, since 2000, both FOMC participants and respondents to the Blue Chip survey have markedly reduced their projections of the level of real short-term interest rates expected to prevail in the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Moreover, inflation was running at a fairly low rate and quite possibly would edge down a little further over coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, in light of the anticipated modest pace of economic recovery, the Committee expects that over coming quarters the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward its mandate-consistent levels. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, with tightening resource constraints indicating unsustainable growth, only tentative signs that growth might be slowing, and various factors that had been damping prices now turning around, all the members agreed on the need for a slight tightening at this meeting to raise the odds on containing inflation and forestalling the inflationary imbalances that would undercut the very favorable performance of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With regard to our price-stability mandate, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In these circumstances, inflation pressures could be expected to remain subdued and some further disinflation might well occur. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year; as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its March projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average over the past 20 years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their assessment of the outlook for inflation, members agreed that | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The members recognized that a typical recovery-period surge in consumer spending was unlikely inasmuch as expenditures had registered solid growth through the economic downturn, implying an absence of significant pent-up demands. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Inflation had been subdued of late, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for an extended period could erode the stability of inflation expectations over time and hence posed upside risks to the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Real GDP was forecast to decline and the unemployment rate to rise, on net, in the first half of this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At the same time, business firms generally were not raising their prices sufficiently to compensate for faster increases in their labor costs, to the extent that the latter were occurring, evidently because of the persistence of intense competition in most markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This modal projection for the path of the unemployment rate is, according to the Atlanta Fed jobs calculator, consistent with a rebound in labor force participation to its estimated demographic trend and is also consistent with cumulative employment gains this year and next that, by the end of 2022, eliminate the 7 million "employment gap" relative to the previous cycle peak I mentioned earlier.5 As is the case for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, my projections for headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation are also similar to the paths of the SEP median of modal projections for these variables. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members agreed to continue to monitor inflation developments closely. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | One member was persuaded that policy had already become so expansionary that further easing ran an unacceptable risk of exacerbating inflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Trends in wages and prices have remained stable in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Over this period, inflation remained above most definitions of price stability, and the Federal Reserve was not actively seeking to reduce it. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Further evidence that firms still have not fully adapted their operations to the latest state of technology also is provided in a recent study4 that attempts to measure the "technological gap"--that is, the difference between the productivity of leading-edge capital and the average productivity embodied in the current capital stock. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For 2000, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis in June to retain the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2000. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Although real growth was likely to be moderate in coming quarters, in his view it was unlikely to be slow enough to bring core inflation down. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. " | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.9 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Recent increases in house prices and equity prices were positives, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, current data suggested little or no growth in overall expenditures on nonresidential structures. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The major reason for these significant differences in spending out of household wealth is doubtless that, while home prices do on occasion decline, large declines are rare; the general experience of homeowners is a modest, but persistent, rise in home values that is perceived to be largely permanent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The presidents' reports often include anecdotal updates from businesses or other sources to provide real-time information on regional economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly in July and August, with strong gains in private-sector jobs and declines in government employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The International Monetary Fund projects that global economic growth in 2019 will be the slowest since the financial crisis. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In this less comfortable world, restoring price stability can involve a painful process of slow growth and elevated unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We think that the economy will need highly accommodative monetary policy and the use of our tools for an extended period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Federal Reserve’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, but with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had picked up, while business fixed investment had continued to grow strongly. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With regard to the consensus in favor of moving from an assessment of risks weighted toward rising inflation to one that was weighted toward economic weakness, with no intermediate issuance of a balanced risks assessment, some members observed that such a change was likely to be viewed as a relatively rapid shift by some observers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The bottom line is that past performance, in several important dimensions, has been extraordinary and that prospects look favorable for continued expansion and relatively low inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As you can see, transforming the information available from published statistics into concepts useful for assessing the consequences of monetary policy is, in fact, quite complex. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On balance, most participants still expected inflation to moderate later this year and in 2009. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, with the contraction in housing activity expected to abate this year, the pace of economic growth was anticipated to edge back up to a level that was close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth by the end of 2007 and to remain in that same range throughout 2008. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although core inflation and the 12-month trimmed mean PCE inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained a little below 2 percent, many participants anticipated that high levels of resource utilization and stable inflation expectations would keep overall inflation near 2 percent over the medium term. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes; and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moreover, broad equity price indexes had declined and borrowing costs for nonfinancial firms had increased, including a recent rise in corporate bond yields across most risk categories. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in July and August. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Similarly, measures of underlying inflation continued to be somewhat low relative to levels seen as consistent with the dual mandate over the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Given the substantial uncertainty still attached to projections of money growth consistent with the Committee's basic objectives for monetary policy, the members agreed that there was no firm basis for changing the tentative ranges set in July 1996. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | One involves the so-called zero bound on nominal interest rates; the other involves labor markets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With tight labor markets and little slack in product markets, we are led to conclude that significant persistent strength in the growth of nominal demand for goods and services, outstripping the likely rate of increase in capacity, will presumably be resisted by higher market interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members referred to the widespread statistical and anecdotal evidence that the surprising strength in economic activity over the closing months of 1996 was persisting in 1997. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) show that it is far easier to make sense of the term structure of Treasury yields if one assumes that expectations about long-run inflation adjust in a reasonable adaptive manner. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Staff Economic Outlook In the forecast prepared for the March FOMC meeting, the staff's outlook for real economic activity was broadly similar to that at the time of the January meeting. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | however, apart from the energy and health care sectors, price inflation had remained relatively subdued, evidently reflecting the combination of diminished growth in overall demand and strong competitive pressures in most markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | These members indicated that the economic outlook remained positive and that they anticipated, under an unchanged policy stance, continued strong labor market conditions and solid growth in activity, with inflation gradually moving up to the Committee's 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | While labor markets were anticipated to remain tight in the near term, participants expected labor demand and supply to come into better balance over time, helping to ease upward pressure on wages and prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In addition to the headwinds facing demand, there could be persistent effects on the supply side of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In this environment, America's prospects for economic growth will greatly depend on our capacity to develop and to apply new technology--a quest that inevitably will entail some risk-taking. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Admittedly, some of the wage increases is being eaten away by inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, if real (or nominal) government spending is held constant, the surplus will rise over time as a share of GDP, putting downward pressure on the equilibrium real rate, offsetting, at least in part, the effect on the real rate of the higher trend productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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