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2	Financial markets are the channel through which our policy affects the economy, and asset prices contain valuable information about investors' expectations for the course of policy, economic activity, and inflation, as well as about the risks around those expectations.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Projections of the rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, had a central tendency of 1-3/4 to 2-1/4 percent, on the high side of the outcome for 1997 when the rise in the index was held down by damped increases in food prices and declines in energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Nevertheless, a number of participants cited notable declines in survey measures of consumer confidence since the onset of financial turbulence in mid-summer, along with sharply higher oil prices, declines in house prices, and tighter underwriting standards for home equity loans and some types of consumer loans, as factors likely to restrain consumer spending going forward.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The staff forecast for total PCE price inflation in 2018 was revised up slightly, mainly because of a faster-than-expected increase in consumer energy prices in the second half.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The steepening of the yield curve was due mostly to sharply lower short- and intermediate-term forward rates, consistent with investors' apparently more pessimistic outlook for economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	One participant, however, objected that purchases of MBS, when compared to purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, would likely result in higher interest rates for many borrowers in other sectors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	What implications do these results have for our broader understanding and for the practice of monetary policy?	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Very low inflation and deflation pose qualitatively similar economic problems, though the magnitude of the associated costs can be expected to increase sharply as deflationary pressures intensify.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These geopolitical events also pose downside risks to growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With longer-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, changes in commodity and import prices expected to be modest, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, inflation was forecast to be subdued through 2015.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Participants discussed several risks that, if realized, could necessitate a steeper path of increases in the target range; these risks included the possibility that inflation pressures could build unduly if output expanded well beyond its maximum sustainable level, perhaps owing to fiscal stimulus or accommodative financial market conditions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	First, I will discuss the available empirical evidence from the United States on the effect of changes in asset prices on household consumption and business investment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although some decline in inflation could not be ruled out, persistence of the current degree of tightness in labor markets, consistent with the economy growing at a pace near its potential, could at some point begin to put more pressure on costs and prices, and growth somewhat above potential, which some members saw as a distinct possibility, would be even more likely to produce that result.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Consumer sentiment was at or close to historically high levels according to recent surveys, evidently reflecting the strong uptrend in employment and income and to some extent the very large cumulative increase in stock market wealth over the course of recent years.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The vote also encompassed approval of the sentence below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With the Committee in the process of reviewing its monetary policy strategies and communication, and no additional accommodation being provided at this meeting, a few members indicated that they could support the Committee's decision even though they had not favored recent policy actions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the household sector, the rise in home mortgage debt likely slowed a bit further in the first quarter, as home-price appreciation appeared to have remained sluggish.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although in a number of sectors of the economy the imbalances between demand and supplyâ€”including labor supplyâ€”are substantial, I do continue to judge that these imbalances are likely to dissipate over time as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation and wage gains adjusted for productivity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And, in my judgment, we may have to rely more on measures other than apparent excess demand to get reliable indications of pending changes in inflationary pressures.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Participants commented that an increase in inflation from recent rates could have especially adverse effects on longer-run economic performance.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In the absence of such a forward-looking response of long-term rates, short-term interest rates may have to move by more to achieve the same near-term impact on long-term interest rates and economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Stock prices in the basic materials and industrial sectors underperformed the broader market, reportedly reflecting an increase in trade tensions with China.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	This is an example of offsetting the attenuation in the response to the output gap with a more aggressive response to inflation realizations.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Fast growth of productivity, by buoying expectations of future advances of wages and earnings and thus aggregate demand, enables real interest rates to be higher than would otherwise be the case without restricting economic growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It was not only capital spending and equity prices that seemed to overshoot in the late 1990s; credit was provided with undue optimism about prospects for repayment.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In the circumstances, most members endorsed a proposal to delete as no longer necessary the previous summary statement relating to the risks to growth and inflation taken together.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In light of the robust expansion of capital spending thus far this year, the outlook for business investment spending was revised up appreciably, as more of the strength over the latter part of 2004 was attributed to underlying demand and less to the effects of the partial-expensing tax provision.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	At the time, we could only observe outcomes that did not fit with preconceptions; try to find rationales that explained what we were seeing; and in the process, derive implications about the future that could be used to guide a forward-looking monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	At the same time, recent research on the science of monetary policy (as well as the analysis of several historical episodes) has underscored the pitfalls that can result from maintaining a zero or negative inflation rate over time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	More recent data are not available, but I suspect that trend has continued since 1992 as the strong performance of the economy, coupled with generally ample availability of credit, has created an environment conducive to the birth and growth of innovative enterprises of all ownership types.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	After the stock-market decline that began in March 2000, new capital investment and thus the demand for financing waned around the world.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The problem with the current situation is that, that if you have a sustained period of supply shocks, those can actually start to undermine or to work—to work on de-anchoring inflation expectations.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The Federal Reserve’s enhanced guidance about its policy intentions and its substantial and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommodative, consistent with the pursuit of its mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Overall consumer prices increased in July and August at about the second-quarter rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Factors pointing to potentially higher inflation included increased pressures on food prices stemming from disappointing harvests in some areas and relatively low grain supplies.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	On balance, however, the members generally believed that prospective trends in overall economic activity and the persistence of strong competitive pressures in most markets, including the effects of foreign competition, were likely in the context of now firmly embedded expectations of low inflation to moderate any tendency for price inflation to accelerate over the year ahead.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And downward revisions to the longer-run normal unemployment rate in a way suggests that participants are seeing more slack in the economy now than they previously did.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	When considering the risks to the labor market, these risks must be viewed in the context of its current strength and with the understanding that our primary challenge is to get inflation under control.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	An intuitive way of thinking about this rise and fall in inflation persistence is that it resulted from an un-anchoring of trend inflation during the period of the Great Inflation, and a re-anchoring in recent years, as the work of Stock and Watson suggests.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The changes—the financial market changes that you described, particularly the increase in stock prices, the increase in longer-term rates, and the strengthening of the dollar, suggest that many market participants anticipate expansionary fiscal policies that would raise interest rates somewhat in the United States relative to abroad and would cause a strengthening in the dollar.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February while households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The slower growth of final spending resulted in inventory overhangs in a number of industries, most notably those related to the motor vehicle sector.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In terms of missing on inflation, policymakers' projections looked very much like most of the public's.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Rather, it is that the underlying sources of productivity growth are very complex.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The slowdown would reflect factors that were expected to damp the growth of overall business investment spending and a greater saturation of potential computer markets that might lead to more emphasis on replacement demand rather than the further expansion of capacity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although the required amount of cumulative tightening may have increased, members noted that an accelerated pace of policy tightening did not appear necessary at this time, as a degree of economic slack apparently remained, productivity growth would probably continue to damp increases in unit labor costs and prices, and inflation would most likely continue to be contained.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Central bank actions are designed in the first instance to influence asset prices and yields, which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	While deflation appears to have eased in Japan recently, it is difficult to know how much of the improvement is due to monetary policy, and, of the part due to monetary policy, how much is due to the zero-interest-rate policy and how much to quantitative easing.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In the absence of such a forward-looking response of long-term rates, short-term interest rates may have to move by more to achieve the same near-term impact on long-term interest rates and economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	That is, it was thought that by accepting a modest increase in the inflation rate, policy could achieve a permanently lower rate of unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Inflation had been subdued of late, although the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Long-term sovereign bond yields declined notably in the advanced economies, in part as foreign central banks announced additional monetary policy easing measures.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	So you’re going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be, how fast the labor market will heal, or how fast—sorry, inflation will move up.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The invasion and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were likely to weigh on economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Most major indexes of equity prices moved up sharply on the bullish economic reports.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	I guess I would also urge you to remember that when you look at the projections, that there are many factors that affect those projections, and changes in tax policy—that’s only one of a number of factors, including incoming data that has, to some extent, altered the outlook for growth and inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The slower growth of M2 followed strong expansion in August and September, however, and growth since midyear was at about the same pace as in the first half of the year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, a few participants expressed concern that higher household wealth might not translate into greater consumer spending, cautioning that household income growth remained slow, that households might not treat the additions to wealth arising from recent equity price increases as lasting, or that households' scope to extract housing equity for the purpose of increasing their expenditures was less than in the past.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The Federal Reserve is fully committed to both sides of its mandate—to price stability as well as to maximum employment—and it has both the tools and the will to act at the appropriate time to avoid any emerging threat to price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Faster productivity growth was among the factors that boosted equity valuations; in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Looking ahead, FOMC participants project the unemployment rate to continue to decline; the median projection is 5 percent at the end of next year and moves below 4 percent by 2023.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in July reaffirmed the ranges it had established in January for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1996.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	But that forecast for growth and uncertainty about the resolution of supply constraints mean that there are upside risks to inflation next year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	However, some others emphasized that deferring the decision until later in the year would permit additional time to assess the outlook for economic activity and inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To the extent that the combination of a low neutral rate, a flat Phillips curve, and low underlying inflation may lead financial imbalances to become more tightly linked to the business cycle, it is important to use tools other than monetary policy to temper the financial cycle.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	And the equity market itself has been the subject of analysis as we attempt to assess the implications for financial and economic stability of the extraordinary rise in equity prices--a rise based apparently on continuing upward revisions in estimates of our corporations' already robust long-term earning prospects.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	November 08, 2021 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Symposium on Monetary Policy Frameworks, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Outlooks and Outcomes for the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy in the second quarter of this year made the transition from economic recovery to economic expansion.1 Given the catastrophic collapse in U.S. economic activity in the first half of 2020 as a result of the global pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it, few forecasters could have expectedâ€”or even dared to hopeâ€”in the spring of last year that the recovery in gross domestic product (GDP), from the sharpest decline in activity since the Great Depression, would be either so robust or as rapid.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In general, participants viewed recent consumer price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Global factors may have put downward pressure on term premiums because of anxiety about the foreign outlook, which may have increased demand for U.S. assets, or because low rates abroad have depressed U.S. term premiums through a global portfolio balance channel.5 And real rates are quite low globally, reflecting the step-down of productivity growth over the past 10 years as well as shifts in savings and investment demand due to demographic change.6 The Core of the Financial System Is Much Stronger Before turning to the interplay between low rates and the financial system, I will simply point out that both improved risk management at the largest, most systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and stronger regulation have made the core of the system much stronger and more resilient than before the crisis.7 The SIFIs have more stable funding, hold much more capital and liquidity, are more conscious of their risks, and are far more resolvable should they fail.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Finally, I would like to note that the Committee strives to explain its monetary policy decisions as clearly as possible, and we continue to explore ways of enhancing the clarity of our public communications.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As we all know, starting in late February or March of last year, widespread economic and social lockdowns and other effects of the pandemic caused the swiftest and deepest contraction in employment and economic activity since the Great Depression.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in July, reflecting both a decline in exports and a rise in imports.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in July reaffirmed the ranges it had established in January for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1996.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	There was also a sharp acceleration in productivity over 1997, which held down unit labor costs.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In terms of the, you know, inflation, a couple things—your second question.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	We heard anecdotes today in the meeting about firms that might be government contractors that were, you know, not sure about whether the contracts would still be in place come January and making employment decisions based on that.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	With the risks to the forecast for economic activity tilted to the downside, the risks to the inflation projection were also viewed as having a downward skew.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Nonetheless, all but one of the members believed that in light of the uncertainties about the economic outlook, an immediate policy tightening was not needed in the absence of firmer indications that inflationary pressures might be emerging.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nevertheless, most participants agreed that, although the level of inventories of unsold homes that homebuilders desired was uncertain, the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	So on the first, the Committee’s forecasts and those of most outside forecasters do show growth running below its longer-run potential this year and next year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Industrial production picked up in response to the advance in final demand and a slowdown in the runoff of excess inventory stocks.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Greater rates of productivity growth in the United States, compared with still-subdued rates abroad, have apparently engendered comparable differences in risk-adjusted expected rates of return and hence in the demand for U.S.-based investment assets.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	During expansions, equity prices tend to rise, although they often decline before a downturn in the economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Term premiums could be lower when inflation expectations are well anchored or the macroeconomy is less volatile.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Nonetheless, the potential for significant further weakening in housing activity and home prices represented a downside risk to the economic outlook.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Although inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, it seems natural to expect, as others have argued, that these developments would have exerted some downward pressure on inflation in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Information on the price expectations of businesses--who are, after all, the price setters in the first instance--as well as information on nominal wage expectations is particularly scarce.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The fundamental price of an asset typically is defined in terms of the discounted present value of the income stream or equivalent services that the asset is expected to provide over time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.

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