Split (2)

train · 4.81k rows

label int64 0 2	premise stringlengths 13 1.25k	hypothesis stringclasses 3 values
2	The benefits achieved through more-stable prices are substantial.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Implications of Increases in Productivity Growth In the long run, the implications of increases in productivity growth rates are fairly obvious.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Many expected those conditions to be met later this year, although several members were concerned about downside risks to the outlook for real activity and inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Inflation, in fact, is under control, and starting to come down.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	So you’re going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be, how fast the labor market will heal, or how fast—sorry, inflation will move up.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	So those who can get credit, together with the low prices of houses, are at—able to buy much more house than they could have a few years ago.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	With regard to the nation as a whole, members noted that rising levels of employment and incomes were continuing to foster solid growth in consumer spending, a development that was abetted by the sharp increases that had occurred in household wealth as a consequence of the extended uptrend in stock market prices and to a lesser extent the appreciation of home prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In July, the range for M3 had been raised by two percentage points to reflect developments that seemed to be fostering a return to the historical pattern of somewhat faster growth in M3 than in M2.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Proponents of this strategy sometimes describe this approach as reducing inflation cycle-to-cycle or describe the economy as being one recession from price stability.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So negative interest rates is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Accordingly, much stronger growth in such investment could occur, with concomitant effects on incomes and the growth of overall spending.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Inflation is much too high, and I strongly believe that bringing inflation back to our target is a necessary condition for meeting the goals mandated by Congress of price stability and maximum employment on a sustainable basis.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For example, Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) show that it is far easier to make sense of the term structure of Treasury yields if one assumes that expectations about long-run inflation adjust in a reasonable adaptive manner.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Moreover, a change in the ranges might be misinterpreted as a signal of greater reliance on the broad monetary aggregates in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Moreover, if, as some members thought likely, productivity growth slowed as employment picked up, the result could be reductions in slack accompanied by higher unit labor costs and associated pressures on prices.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	That should gradually return the economy to full utilization of its resources, while inflation remains subdued.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011 and over a longer horizon.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	We have continued to provide guidance, the same guidance that we have for some time, that says the Committee “anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.” I know that’s a mouthful, but it says, in effect, that the Committee believes that the economic conditions that have made recovery difficult, we’re getting beyond them.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	So in terms of financial markets and monetary policy, we—as we say in our statement every cycle, we do take financial conditions into consideration because financial—broader financial conditions do affect the broader economy, and they’re one of the many things that we take into account.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	While numerous contacts reported generally disappointing holiday sales in an environment of atypically large and widespread discounting, a surge in motor vehicle sales in December fostered by aggressive sales incentives and some pickup in retail sales late in the holiday season helped to sustain moderate overall growth in consumer spending through the year-end.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Both total and core inflation were projected to move up slightly next year, as the low readings early this year were expected to be transitory, but nevertheless to continue to run below 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With respect to inflation, the netting of the crosscurrents suggests a modest increase in inflation in 1998, albeit from a steadily downward-revised and very low rate in 1997.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Although the pace of job losses was moderating, the unusually large fraction of those who were working part time for economic reasons and the unusually low level of the average workweek pointed to only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate as the economic recovery proceeded.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack, although the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The events of the last two years come on top of a huge expansion of global trade, competition and productive capacity--all of which have given American businesses less control over prices in the face of rising costs and benefited American consumers through low prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Critical though this issue is, it does not by itself capture the importance of productivity.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A couple of participants indicated that they would not favor adopting a restrictive policy stance in the absence of clear signs of an overheating economy and rising inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations also had not changed appreciably, on net, in recent months.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Again, that’s not a forecast, I’ve made a hypothesis, which would imply slower improvement in unemployment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The deceleration seemed to reflect primarily an unwinding of heightened demand for the relative safety and liquidity of money market mutual funds that had boosted M2 in prior months.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indeed, in the interest of fostering a continuation of sustainable growth of the economy, it would be desirable to tighten before any sign of actual higher inflation were to become evident.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	There’s a lot more demand for risk sharing, for liquidity services, and so on.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although participants had revised downward their projections for growth since their previous forecasts in June, they continued to anticipate that economic growth would pick up and the unemployment rate would decline gradually through 2014.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although participants considered it unlikely that the economy would reenter a recession, many expressed concern that output growth, and the associated progress in reducing the level of unemployment, could be slow for some time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Reinforcing this outlook was recent evidence of somewhat faster than anticipated productivity growth, the prospect that world economic conditions would hold down energy prices, and a sharp drop in near-term inflation expectations of households as reported in recent surveys.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A currency board and dollarization are tighter versions of a fixed exchange rate regime--that is, fixed exchange rate systems from which it is progressively more costly to exit.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	* * * What then are the implications of this largely irreducible uncertainty for the conduct of monetary policy?	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability objectives in the years ahead.9 Our evolving understanding of four key economic developments motivated our review.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Nonetheless, the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, especially because the economy was not well positioned to withstand adverse shocks while the target for the federal funds rate was at its effective lower bound.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In response to evidence of a slowdown in economic activity and a rapid waning of inflationary pressures, central banks around the world eased policy sharply.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Just as in the earlier analysis of Ammer and Freeman, this analysis suggested that in all three countries the inflation targeting led to a drop in inflation and nominal interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	With tight labor markets and little slack in product markets, we are led to conclude that significant persistent strength in the growth of nominal demand for goods and services, outstripping the likely rate of increase in capacity, will presumably be resisted by higher market interest rates.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Given the difficulty in assigning productivity increases by industry, there is a dispute on how widely productivity implicit in the information revolution has spread across the economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework the Federal Reserve unanimously adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.2 Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At FOMC meetings convened since the new framework was announced last August, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases to bring it in line with our new framework.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	All members agreed that the statement to be released after the meeting should convey that inflation risks remained dominant and that consequently keeping policy unchanged at this meeting did not necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The staff assessed that households were in a better position than in the mid-2000s to weather a downturn in house prices, noting that mortgage debt growth has significantly lagged growth in house prices, leaving households with substantial equity cushions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Obviously, productivity growth generated through this rationalization process will not have the direct demand-augmenting effect of productivity increases realized through more rapid investment spending.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	To date, the spillover from the surge in oil prices has been modest.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As illustrated by the left-hand panel of figure 6, since 2000, both FOMC participants and respondents to the Blue Chip survey have markedly reduced their projections of the level of real short-term interest rates expected to prevail in the longer run.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important.2 Such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short-term interest rates but also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Lower potential growth implies lower returns and therefore lower rates.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year; sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With regard to our price-stability mandate,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	However, reports from a couple of Districts indicated that the agricultural sector was still weak, with low commodity prices continuing to put financial pressure on farm-related businesses.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But we are also searching for an absolute concept, the point of balance between supply and demand in the respective markets that divides excess demand from excess supply--in effect, the origin in a diagram relating inflation to excess demand and supply.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The foreign exchange value of the dollar, which depreciated immediately following the FOMC's November announcement of further asset purchases, subsequently appreciated amid intensifying concerns about stresses in the euro area and some apparent reassessment by investors of the monetary policy outlook in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	We know that the short end of the yield curve is dominated by monetary policy and cyclical factors.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Microeconomic studies provide corroborating information to the macroeconomic evidence of a post-1995 acceleration in productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Members also expressed concern about the potential for an increase in inflation expectations given highly stimulative macroeconomic policies and economic growth that seemed to be gathering momentum.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	On balance, most participants still expected inflation to moderate later this year and in 2009.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The members concluded that retaining a risk statement weighted toward more inflation pressures would best represent their current thinking, but they believed it was desirable to provide some recognition of the emergence of increased downside risks to the economic expansion in the statement to be released after this meeting.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Finally, I would like to note that the Committee strives to explain its monetary policy decisions as clearly as possible, and we continue to explore ways of enhancing the clarity of our public communications.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	payroll employment posted solid gains, and, on balance, a range of labor market indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Core price inflation was projected to rise a little over the forecast horizon, in part as a result of higher import prices	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The moderation reflected lower growth in most major expenditure sectors.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	And so you’re seeing prices are moving back up off their lows there.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Two changes have particular relevance for the employment leg of the dual mandate.15 The new framework calls for monetary policy to seek to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, in contrast to the previous approach that called for policy to minimize deviations when employment is too high as well as too low.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Since June, however, inflation fears have receded, and some financial-market participants have become less optimistic about the economy's near-term growth prospects.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	About two years after the onset of the financial crisis, the ECI moved up slightly in 2010 and then remained essentially flat at an annual growth rate of 2 percent over a five-year period between 2010 and 2015.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	That projection, along with the path to year-three inflation, should help the public differentiate short-term shocks to price stability from the longer-term price trends it should use for planning purposes.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex factors that are inherently difficult to measure, such as expected future earnings, riskiness, and risk aversion.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Of course, we can’t do anything about long-run employment opportunities, but we can help the economy recover more quickly.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued, but they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	One objective--price stability--can be well defined and is fully under the control of monetary policymakers, at least over a period of time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With regard to the outlook for inflation, members referred to widespread indications of increasingly tight labor markets and to statistical and anecdotal reports of faster increases in labor compensation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Moreover, broad equity price indexes had declined and borrowing costs for nonfinancial firms had increased, including a recent rise in corporate bond yields across most risk categories.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	It was suggested that the weakening expansion of expenditures in these capital goods might reflect a surfeit in capacity following a period of extraordinary growth in many industries--for example, those related to fiber optics.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The members also agreed on the desirability of retaining the assessment that the risks with regard to the outlook for economic growth were balanced.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. "	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	When governments resort to printing money to finance their spending, inflation rises and nominal assets lose their value.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Our mandate, sorry, is price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Traditionally, these two measures of excess demand move together over the cycle.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For instance, monetary policymakers must accurately assess how disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding affect labor markets, household and business spending, output, and prices.7 In deciding whether to alter monetary policy or, instead, to "look through" such shocks, policymakers need to assess the likely persistence of the effects and how widespread they are.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Housing demand and consumer spending firmed toward the end of the year, but capital spending remained quite weak in an environment of substantial business uncertainty and pessimism.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone, while still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	PCE core is at about 2, and I think we see that, you know, the temporary increase in headline inflation as being a function of oil prices probably, and we expect inflation to go back down to 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Members agreed that their policy decisions would remain data dependent, and they continued to include wording in the statement noting that if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely occur sooner than currently anticipated, and, similarly, that if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range would likely occur later than currently anticipated.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.

Subsets and Splits

No community queries yet

The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.