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0 | U.S. monetary policy responded to these global "headwinds," helping stave off actual contractions of U.S. activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As I mentioned, once you—once you’re, broadly speaking, in the range of neutral, I think it’s appropriate to be putting aside individual estimates of that and be looking at what the incoming data are telling you about the outlook, updating your estimates of what neutral might be, of what the natural rate of unemployment might be, of the state of the economy, so—and letting that lead you to adjust your outlook and, therefore, your appropriate path for policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | According to the Taylor Rule, the federal funds rate should adjust over time to changes in utilization rates (the gap between actual and potential output or between the unemployment rate and NAIRU) and to changes in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road--either too much inflation, financial instability, or both. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Another factor viewed as likely to exert a moderating effect on the growth of economic activity was the expectation of some slowing in inventory investment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | To be sure, our main tool, monetary policy, is a blunt instrument that cannot be targeted at individual industries or regions. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Major equity indexes appeared to be supported by lower interest rates and posted modest gains despite the increases in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Although we cannot ascertain the precise rates of resource utilization that the economy can sustain, we can have little doubt that, after three years of above-trend growth, slack has been substantially reduced. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And, and that’s why we have adopted the flexible average inflation-targeting framework. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In addition, coming to grips now with the outsized projected growth in entitlement spending in the early years of the next century could have a profound effect on current expectations of stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Crude oil prices, though volatile, had not risen appreciably in recent months on balance, and a flattening in energy prices was beginning to damp headline inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, the available measures of expectations--whether from surveys or financial markets--have shown longer-term expectations increasing very little, if at all, throughout this period, providing some assurance about the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Several members reiterated that business spending was the critical factor that would govern to a substantial degree the timing and extent of the acceleration in overall economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In these circumstances, a pause seemed desirable to monitor the still-incomplete effects of the Committee's easing over the past year--a significant part of which had been implemented in recent months--and the contours of the turnaround in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | If we think that the potential growth rate of the economy is somewhere between, somewhere around 1.75 percent, 2.8 percent is strong economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | About two years after the onset of the financial crisis, the ECI moved up slightly in 2010 and then remained essentially flat at an annual growth rate of 2 percent over a five-year period between 2010 and 2015. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And, at a high level, yes, I would say, and I’ve said before, that it’s really fiscal policy that is more powerful and that has much more to do with—fiscal policy can do those things that will increase the longer-run growth rate of the United States by improving productivity and labor force September 18, 2019 participation and the skills and aptitudes of workers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pickup in consumer spending to a solid pace in the near term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We understand that inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time, but they don’t change rapidly. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | More recently, with inflation under control, overheating has shown up in the form of financial excess. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While deflation appears to have eased in Japan recently, it is difficult to know how much of the improvement is due to monetary policy, and, of the part due to monetary policy, how much is due to the zero-interest-rate policy and how much to quantitative easing. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | I don’t think we look at—I understand what you’re asking, but we’re looking at—our mandate is price inflation and maximum employment, and that’s what we’re looking at with setting interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Central banks generally appear to have embraced a common model of the channels through which monetary policy functions, although the specifics and emphasis given to those channels vary according to our particular circumstances. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In addition to the headwinds facing demand, there could be persistent effects on the supply side of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | For the twelve months ended in September, prices of consumer items other than food and energy increased by a considerably smaller amount than in the year- earlier period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Based on historical experience, it seems improbable that all of the large rise in multifactor productivity could be attributed to cyclical or transitory factors. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Many members of the Committee, participants, have said that they think policy should be based on the actual evolution of economic activity and inflation, which tends to be variable over time, and that’s why I say I anticipate it will be data dependent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While anecdotal reports suggested that softening was confined to only a few areas, the delayed effects of the drop in stock market prices and forecasts of slower employment and income growth suggested some moderation in housing activity at some point. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As stock prices soared in the 1990s, the share of equity holdings in household portfolios surpassed the share of owner-occupied housing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas--some that would have been familiar to the central bankers in the Fed's early years and some that would have been unfamiliar: maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets supervising and regulating banking organizations to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system and to protect consumers from harm in their use of credit and banking services playing a major role in operating and overseeing the nation's payment system, including providing certain financial services to financial institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions conducting monetary policy in pursuit of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment We have an all-too-recent example of the Fed as a source of financial stability in its response to the financial aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which occurred just before I joined the Board in December 2001. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | You know, it says that we will seek to—seek inflation that runs moderately above 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants agreed that the labor market had remained strong over the intermeeting period and that economic activity had risen at a moderate rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, nothing prevents a central bank from switching its focus from the price of reserves to the quantity or growth of reserves. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants discussed their assessments of risks to financial stability, particularly in light of the Committee's highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some members observed that while slower growth in consumer spending was the most probable forecast, they saw an upside risk from the wealth effects of the large rise that had occurred in the value of stock market holdings. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff raised slightly its projection for inflation during the second half of this year, as the upward pressure on consumer prices from earlier increases in import and commodity prices was expected to persist a little longer than previously anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Financial markets are the channel through which our policy affects the economy, and asset prices contain valuable information about investors' expectations for the course of policy, economic activity, and inflation, as well as about the risks around those expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Of course, we’re ready to provide information that Congress needs to evaluate the Fed’s decisionmaking, in monetary policy and elsewhere. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, "computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that economic activity likely would start to turn up early in 2002 as inventory liquidation tapered off, and would gather strength only gradually. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The boom was fueled by a sustained acceleration of productivity and an accompanying rise in corporate profits--fundamental changes that justified a major rise in equity prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because, in his view, the new forward guidance in the fifth paragraph of the statement would weaken the credibility of the Committee's commitment to its inflation goal by failing to communicate purposeful steps to more rapidly increase inflation to the 2 percent target and by suggesting that the Committee views inflation persistently below 2 percent as an acceptable outcome. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The implications of the spread of e-money for monetary policy would arise from the substitution of e-money for both currency and deposits, shrinking the size of the monetary base. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Although the pace of job losses was moderating, the unusually large fraction of those who were working part time for economic reasons and the unusually low level of the average workweek pointed to only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate as the economic recovery proceeded. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up our broad stock price indexes. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Participants discussed several risks that, if realized, could necessitate a steeper path of increases in the target range; these risks included the possibility that inflation pressures could build unduly if output expanded well beyond its maximum sustainable level, perhaps owing to fiscal stimulus or accommodative financial market conditions. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Fiscal policy, on the other hand, can be an instrument of growth policy, through its effect on national saving via the structural budget deficit, through incentive effects on work, saving and investment via tax rates and tax structure, and through public investment in human capital and physical infrastructure. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | November 01, 2006 Community Development Financial Institutions: Promoting Economic Growth and Opportunity Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the Opportunity Finance Network’s Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. Share Good afternoon and thank you for inviting me to speak to your annual conference. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, it was noted that the Committee had in place tools that would enable it to remove policy accommodation quickly if necessary to avoid an undesirable increase in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Measures of inflation compensation based on TIPS fell in response to the soft reading on core inflation in the November CPI release but subsequently moved up against the backdrop of an improving global growth outlook, higher commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar, and the stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation in the December CPI release. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from the Congress to pursue policies that aim to achieve and sustain maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The effect of higher energy prices on real incomes was likely still restraining consumer spending. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation-targeting regimes make sense only if the central bank has independent control of the instruments of monetary policy, as holding the central bank responsible for meeting its inflation target is hardly possible otherwise. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But I think that that’s a prudent move, to move in a gradual way to remove Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL accommodation, with unemployment now—and not only, I should say, the unemployment rate, but I think any indicator of labor market performance and tightness that you could look at, whether it’s household perceptions of the availability of jobs, difficulty that firms report in hiring workers, the rate at which workers are quitting their jobs, the rate of job openings, all of these indicators do signal a tight labor market. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While prices in equity markets had turned up from their recent lows, the cumulative losses in financial wealth incurred since early 2000 clearly were having an adverse impact on expenditures by households and the higher cost of equity capital was inhibiting business investment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Many foreign central banks tightened monetary policy to address high inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had been little changed in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In hindsight, the paths of inflation, real output, stock prices and exchange rates may have seemed preordained, but no such insight existed as we experienced it at the time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Money growth was damped by a rise in the opportunity cost of holding M2 assets (as typically occurs in periods of policy tightening). | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Measures of core inflation remained much more subdued, although they also moved up in some countries. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Measures of inflation compensation were little changed on net. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The near-term forecast again entailed a marked downshift in headline inflation as energy prices fall back consistent with readings from futures markets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, given a recovery in U. S. domestic demand approximating their current forecasts, growth in imports likely would exceed that of exports by a wide margin over the forecast horizon. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was expected to be gradual. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And so when asset prices went back up, probably there’ll be a swing around there, a positive contribution. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | You know, it’s interest rates, it’s risk spreads, it’s currency, it’s the stock market, it’s credit availability, it’s many, many factors. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Productivity and TechnologyLet me now turn from the overall economic outlook to productivity and technology developments. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Information on the price expectations of businesses--who are, after all, the price setters in the first instance--as well as information on nominal wage expectations is particularly scarce. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Again, while I do not shirk the responsibility of the Fed having to do what it can to meet its mandate, obviously, a broad range of policies can affect growth and employment, and I hope that there will be a range of actions that will complement and supplement the Federal Reserve’s efforts. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The increase in upside risks to domestic demand and the diminution of foreign risks together suggest that risks to the outlook are more balanced today than they had been for the preceding two years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy, and, as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth—for growth in the global economy outside the United States—and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was little revised. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, waiting was an acceptable alternative given the favorable economic news and the persisting uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So the term “trend inflation”—usually there are a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So unemployment has tended to go up much faster for minorities and for others who are—tend to be at the low end of the income spectrum. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The implication is that monetary policy is already well positioned to slow the expansion. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As always, my colleagues on the FOMC and I will act to foster our dual objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We said that we would "aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time" to ensure that it averages 2 percent over time and that inflation expectations stay anchored. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Accordingly, while the weight of current economic output is probably only modestly higher than it was a half century ago, value added, adjusted for price change, has risen well over threefold. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | For example, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid-1800s to factories after the Civil War led to a disproportionate increase in the demand for unskilled labor to operate the new machines. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Prospects for ProductivityLet me close with some comments on the outlook for productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Core inflation was then expected to edge down in 2009 as the impetus from prior increases in the prices of imports, energy, and other commodities abated and the margin of slack in resource use widened. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The housing sector has fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We’re also, as part of our review, looking at potential innovations, changes to the way we think about things, changes to the framework that would lead us—that would be more supportive of achieving inflation on a 2 percent—on a symmetric 2 percent basis over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The members also agreed that the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of greater inflation pressures and that further tightening actions might be necessary to bring about financial conditions that were sufficiently firm to contain upward pressures on labor costs and prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This is perhaps because the emphasis on price stability is taken by some as carrying a hint of restrictive policy and as an inclination to always be leaning against cyclical increases in demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A few participants argued that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run would erode the stability of inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increased yet further. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members agreed that the stance of monetary policy should not be changed at this meeting. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, with the unemployment rate anticipated to increase somewhat during the remainder of 2009 and to decline only gradually in 2010, the staff still expected core PCE inflation to slow substantially over the forecast period; the very low readings on hourly compensation lately suggested that such a process might already be in train. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indicators for China in July pointed to only a modest slowing of output growth from its torrid pace in the first half of the year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
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