label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3 values |
|---|---|---|
2 | However, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, although several participants noted that the recent firming in crude oil prices had led to a modest increase in drilling activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Many have observed the rise in the real federal funds rate to a level well above its historical average and concluded that monetary policy is currently restrictive. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But that has not—what, what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low, companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So I, you know, I’m—I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. " | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We include these types of price terms today in our forecasting equations, and they are important to forming our views of the inflation outlook and thus to the policy process. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although we are hearing some reports of large retailers planning markdowns due to excess inventories, we do not have hard data at an aggregate level suggesting that businesses are reducing margins in response to more price sensitivity among customers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices, but we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Because there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence, breadth, and magnitude of climate-related shocks to the economy, it could be challenging to assess what adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be most effective at keeping the economy operating at potential with maximum employment and price stability.8 We need only look back to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s to see how difficult it was for monetary policymakers to assess accurately the likely persistence of the effects on inflation and output and the appropriate response. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Inflation was still expected to be somewhat higher this year than last year, largely reflecting an upturn in the prices for food and non-energy imports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | One prominent example is with semiconductor producers and their need to dramatically alter the mix of production to meet demands of the high-tech and automotive industries. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In addition, some of the correlation may reflect the effect of the response of monetary policy to exchange rate developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Regarding the economic outlook, most participants agreed that economic growth was likely to remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nonetheless, on balance, most members currently considered the upside risks to inflation to be a bit less pressing than those on the downside for the next few quarters. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Monetary Policy But it is monetary policy--and the Fed's principal monetary lever, the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves between depository institutions--that earns the Federal Reserve all that ink and airtime. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The strength in corporate profits in the first quarter not only impressed economists, but it also impressed investors, who drove stock prices up earlier this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some participants stated that low interest rates appeared to be contributing to strong sales of autos or, more generally, of consumer durables. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The extraordinary achievement of 1996, of course, was reaching such low levels of unemployment and inflation at the same time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, with the unemployment rate anticipated to increase somewhat during the remainder of 2009 and to decline only gradually in 2010, the staff still expected core PCE inflation to slow substantially over the forecast period; the very low readings on hourly compensation lately suggested that such a process might already be in train. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | How the forces of demand, potential supply, and expectations interact has probably not been changed in any fundamental way by the recent trend of globalization. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables was expected to be appreciably below the rapid pace in the first half of last year, and housing demand would increase only a little from its recent level. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Back then, the unemployment rate was 8.1percent and nonfarm payrolls were reported to have increased at a monthly rate of 97,000 over the prior six months; today, those figures are 7.6 percent and 194,000, respectively. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | First, the expansion of trade may cause domestic inflation to depend to a greater extent on the prices of imported goods--not only because imported goods enter the consumer basket or (in the case of imported intermediate goods) affect the costs of domestic production, but because competition with imports affects the pricing power of domestic producers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | You know, stimulating aggregate demand is one thing, but where there’s a part of the economy that kind of will be resistant to that, you also need fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although some decline in inflation could not be ruled out, persistence of the current degree of tightness in labor markets, consistent with the economy growing at a pace near its potential, could at some point begin to put more pressure on costs and prices, and growth somewhat above potential, which some members saw as a distinct possibility, would be even more likely to produce that result. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Deflation, like inflation, would distort resource allocation and interfere with the economy's ability to reach its full potential. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Indeed, financial services firms had already announced layoffs, largely reflecting mortgage market developments, the demand for temporary workers appeared to have softened, and the most recent weakening in construction employment was likely to continue for a while. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocks—prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So the—the sooner we get the virus under control, the sooner people can regain that confidence and regain their economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Regarding the ELB, the previous statement was silent on the global decline in neutral policy rates, the likelihood that the ELB will constrain monetary policy space in economic downturns, and the implications of this constraint for our ability to achieve our dual-mandate goals. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Weekly data for March, however, indicated that gasoline prices rose sharply. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in household wealth, while Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Since inflation is unacceptably high, it doesn't make sense to have the nominal federal funds rate below near-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With gross retail margins amounting to about 30 percent of sales, a reduction in currently elevated margins could make an important contribution to reduced inflation pressures in consumer goods. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. " | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Against this background, the risks in the outlook for prices also seemed to be tilted toward somewhat higher inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While a number of members saw some slight further disinflation as the most plausible outcome, no one expected a material change in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We're looking at wages and we're looking at ultimately inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, core CPI (consumer price inflation) prices fell 0.4 percent in April, the largest monthly decrease since the beginning of the series in 1957. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If this high-pressure management inadvertently carried the economy beyond its productive potential, some cost in terms of inflation could be expected, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | More specifically, we observed financial-market developments over the period beginning fifteen minutes before and ending forty-five minutes after each policy decision became known to the public.4 The advantage of restricting the analysis to a short period spanning the Committee's decision is that the changes in yields or asset prices occurring within that narrow window are more likely to reflect the impact of the decision, as opposed to the arrival of other information about the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | September 01, 2020 Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy Governor Lael Brainard At "How the Fed Will Respond to the COVID-19 Recession in an Era of Low Rates and Low Inflation," an event hosted by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live I want to thank David Wessel for hosting this event. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, it is not yet clear how high we will need to raise the federal funds rate and how much time will pass before we begin to see inflation moving back down in a consistent and lasting way. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | On the supply side, the effect is fairly clear and immediate: An increase in trend productivity growth implies a more rapid pace of growth of the economy's productive capacity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Inflation is also being held down, reflecting weaker demand as well as significantly lower energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff's near-term forecast for inflation was revised up a little, as recent data showed somewhat faster-than-anticipated increases that were judged to be only partly transitory. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Many foreign central banks tightened monetary policy to address high inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Estimates by the staff of the Federal Reserve indicate that about 40 percent of the growth in outstanding home mortgage debt during the past five years originated as financing the extraction of home equity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Does the rapid growth in cross-border capital flows limit or even eliminate the ability of domestic monetary policy to affect domestic interest rates? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Committee Policy Action Committee members saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In several Districts, reports from business contacts or evidence from surveys pointed to some difficulty in finding qualified workers; in some cases, labor shortages were making it hard to fill customer demand or expand business. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and—in the same sentence—that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | We must keep in mind that, difficult as the problem seems, consistently measured prices do exist in principle. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And the growth of telegraphy enabled railroads to better coordinate the movement of trains over a wider area. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The recent lower readings on inflation have been driven significantly by what appear to be one-off reductions in certain categories of prices, such as wireless telephone services and prescription drugs. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited; indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Indeed, financial services firms had already announced layoffs, largely reflecting mortgage market developments, the demand for temporary workers appeared to have softened, and the most recent weakening in construction employment was likely to continue for a while. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | During the 1980s and 1990s, the Federal Reserve succeeded in bringing inflation down from double-digit levels to the average rate of about 2 percent that has prevailed over the past decade. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011; as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Job growth last month was fairly widespread, although heavy hiring in the construction sector was due partly to efforts to repair damage from the four hurricanes that hit the southeastern states. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework the Federal Reserve unanimously adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.2 Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At FOMC meetings convened since the new framework was announced last August, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases to bring it in line with our new framework. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | From the end of 2000 to the end of 2003, productivity rose at a 3-1/2 percent annual rate and, even after recent downward revisions to the data, it is estimated to have increased at an average annual rate of 2-1/4 percent since the end of 2003. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b). | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And what we—it looks like we’re seeing a slowdown in the rate of growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | However, we have also found that excluding volatile food and energy prices generally gives a better sense of underlying inflation pressures that are likely to persist and dominate total inflation over time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Yet, with a few exceptions, the available data show that productivity growth in other advanced countries has not increased to the extent seen in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This action was taken against the backdrop of heightened concerns and uncertainty created by the recent terrorist attacks and their potentially adverse effects on asset prices and the performance of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The members agreed that the statement to be issued after this meeting should highlight their view that even after their firming today the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflation pressures. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Of course, if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal, we would not hesitate to act. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In addition, some of the correlation may reflect the effect of the response of monetary policy to exchange rate developments. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | My general point is that inflation is much too high, and the outlook for inflation remains significantly uncertain. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | While more moderate growth in consumer spending for durable goods seemed likely after an extended period of robust expansion, these favorable factors suggested that the risks of a different outcome were tilted in the direction of faster-than-projected expansion. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But, certainly, we’ve had a lot of years in which interest rates have been low. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005; Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | What implications do these results have for our broader understanding and for the practice of monetary policy? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | About the same time, Board staff developed the so-called P* (P-star) model, based on M2, which used the quantity theory of money and estimates of long-run potential output and velocity (the ratio of nominal income to money) to predict long-run inflation trends. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared for the January FOMC meeting, the staff's projection for the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the near term was revised down a bit. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Higher productivity is unambiguously good. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But some would argue that monetary policy is actually further away from neutral, based on the fact that current inflation is so much higher than the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But I do think that—and I do think also that unemployment insurance benefits will run out in September, so to the extent that’s a factor, which is not clear, it will no longer be a factor fairly soon. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Against this background, the risks in the outlook for prices also seemed to be tilted toward somewhat higher inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Additionally, can one make any other generalizations concerning recessions that follow asset-price booms and busts and how they differ from other recessions? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Conversely, perhaps the transitory factors boosting productivity will recede more sharply than most observers anticipate, and the output gap will close more rapidly. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Actual or realized saving depends on the equilibrium values of the real interest rate and other economic variables. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States, although there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Under these circumstances, policymakers must be cognizant of the shortcomings of our published price indexes to avoid misguided actions that will provoke unintended consequences. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | To achieve its mandated objectives, the FOMC must influence the course of the U.S. economy, helping it to grow rapidly enough to make full use of available resources but not so rapidly as to stoke inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In the context of this discussion, many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Here in the United States, my colleague Governor Mike Kelley has stated that we are likely to see some disruptions to economic activity because of Year 2000 problems but the effects are likely to be temporary and quickly reversed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.