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0 | Going forward, consumer outlays were expected to be supported by further advances in employment and income. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | To see this, suppose that a speculative bubble has emerged and that a central bank, operating under a conventional strategy, has raised interest rates to keep the projected output gap closed and expected inflation at its desired level before the bubble bursts. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Inflation had been subdued, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As you may know, the interest rate that we target is the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Monetary policy decisions are judgment calls, informed by forecasts and discussions about how the economy is likely to evolve, alternative possibilities, and potential responses to policy actions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some survey measures of inflation expectations declined during the period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Although not without some serious shortcomings, the published productivity data provide little encouragement to the view that there has been a significant improvement in underlying productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demand–supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all but the very shortest maturities, and with the additional tightening and deceleration in inflation that is expected over coming quarters, the entire real curve will soon move into positive territory. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So in terms of financial markets and monetary policy, we—as we say in our statement every cycle, we do take financial conditions into consideration because financial—broader financial conditions do affect the broader economy, and they’re one of the many things that we take into account. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Moreover, the staff still judged that the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were tilted to the downside, with a corresponding skew to the upside for the unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If labor demand cools, will separations increase and shift the curve outward, increasing unemployment further? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A third factor underpinning longer-run prospects for growth is the sustained strong uptrend in labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Economic data releases were mixed, on balance, over the intermeeting period, but market participants were especially attentive to incoming information on the labor market--most notably, the private payroll figures in the employment report for May, which were considerably weaker than investors expected. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I expect that to continue, and I would expect also to see some improvement in the degree of part-time employment that’s for economic reasons. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In particular, a surprise tightening of policy raises the risk premium, lowering current stock prices, and a surprise easing lowers the risk premium, raising current stock prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Phillips curve has become, according to most estimates, quite flat in the sense that movements in unemployment have only a modest impact on inflation, so we shouldn’t overblow how large that is. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A few members expressed interest in using language specifying a period of time during which the federal funds rate was expected to remain exceptionally low, rather than a calendar date, arguing that such language might be better to indicate a constant stance of monetary policy over time. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | forecasts of more moderate growth in aggregate demand at a pace around potential output had substantially reduced the odds on rising inflation, the risks still were pointed in that direction on balance. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The staff's June projections for the unemployment rate, real GDP growth, and inflation over the next few years were all a little lower, on balance, than those in its March forecast. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Comparing the Theoretical Prediction to Recent Experience The swing from budget deficit to surplus has been much more dramatic than was expected when the fiscal year 1994 budget was adopted. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members commented that the statistical and anecdotal information that had become available since the October meeting continued to point to robust growth in overall economic activity, despite some indications of softening in interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations." | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | will soon fall well below its underlying trend as the price of energy falls back to its initial level. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, in cases in which variations in the demand for reserves or in external factors affecting reserve supply appear likely to be temporary, the Desk typically prefers to conduct open-market operations through short-term or long-term repurchase agreements, known as repos. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | These interest rate changes also have effects on asset prices, and thereby on household wealth, as well as on the exchange value of the dollar and, thereby, on net exports and core import prices.7 However, relative to balance sheet policies, the influence of the short-term rate is far better understood and extensively tested: There have been several decades and many business cycles over which to measure and analyze how the federal funds rate affects financial markets and real activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Market sentiment toward the syndicated leveraged loan market also improved, with the average bid price increasing noticeably and bid-asked spreads narrowing a bit further. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The household saving rate, which had already risen considerably, would eventually level out and cease to hold back consumption growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members agreed that the stance of monetary policy should not be changed at this meeting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Also, the recent evidence could be interpreted as indicating that the surprisingly sharp decline in measured inflation in 2003 exaggerated the drop in the underlying rate of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In their assessment of the outlook for inflation, members agreed that although forecasts of more moderate growth in aggregate demand at a pace around potential output had substantially reduced the odds on rising inflation, the risks still were pointed in that direction on balance. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants agreed that the longer-run normal federal funds rate was likely lower than in the past, in part because of secular forces that had put downward pressure on real interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | At the time of our FOMC meeting in January, prospects for continued economic growth remained favorable, and we judged that monetary policy was well positioned to support that outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is something that the FOMC pays attention to, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Once this process is completed, however, we might expect consumer price inflation to move into better alignment with long-run expectations and thus settle in around 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | This monetary expansion could generate domestic inflation unless it is sterilized with other open market sales of securities--and the mere scale of present and expected future debt stocks may make continued sterilization impossible. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Accordingly, much stronger growth in such investment could occur, with concomitant effects on incomes and the growth of overall spending. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Indeed, most anticipated that inflation will slow for a time to rates somewhat lower than those they judge consistent with the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, initially reflecting the recent declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and later responding to several years of substantial economic slack. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Inflation is also being held down, reflecting weaker demand as well as significantly lower energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | As we gain experience with the enhanced forecasts, we will continue to evaluate how best to promote stability of both prices and employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation had been subdued, even though the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | On balance, core consumer price inflation was projected to remain subdued and quite possibly edge lower. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | When long-term rates rise in response to a cyclical strengthening, it reflects, in large part, the expectation of higher short-term interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And the maximum level of employment that’s consistent with price stability evolves over time within a—within a business cycle and over a longer period, in part reflecting [the] evolution of the factors that affect labor supply, including those related to the pandemic. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Conditions in the commercial paper (CP) market improved over the intermeeting period, likely reflecting recent measures taken in support of this market, greater demand from institutional investors, and the passing of year-end. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | One of the things we’ve learned from our financial crisis and from a series of financial crises in history and around the globe is that, very commonly, when the economy takes a hit and falls into a recession, that productivity doesn’t pick up to pre-recession levels and that there looks like there is a permanent hit to the path of potential output for the economy, which is called “hysteresis.” And I raised the question as to whether or not this might operate in the opposite direction as well. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The current global environment highlights the importance of having strong analytic and empirical foundations to understand financial stability considerations for monetary policy, and the research presented today will help strengthen those foundations.1 The global environment of high inflation and rising interest rates highlights the importance of paying attention to financial stability considerations for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for an extended period could erode the stability of inflation expectations over time and hence posed upside risks to the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy; in particular, the Fed's loss of credibility significantly increased the cost of achieving disinflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With today's action, the real federal funds rate--measured as the difference between the nominal funds rate and a moving average of core PCE inflation--would move slightly into positive territory. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in consumer spending, residential housing expenditures, and government outlays slowed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Of course, the cost of this critical stabilization was the high unemployment and lost output associated with the sharp 1981-82 recession. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Such a policy would clearly have near-term costs: It would slow the expansion in demand, damp the creation of new jobs, and keep inflation lower than it otherwise would be. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It was noted, however, that increases in compensation that exceeded productivity gains might be absorbed to some extent by a narrowing of firms’ high profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The prices of their exports are lower than they would be if market forces were given greater scope in foreign exchange markets, and they are supplying more goods and services to the rest of the world than they themselves are demanding. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | So I think, through all of those channels, monetary policy works. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | During much of the recovery, forecasters have been overly optimistic about growth | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And in so far as that will affect monetary policy, of course we will have to factor those policies along with many other things, including the global environment and oil prices and other matters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Yet, with a few exceptions, the available data show that productivity growth in other advanced countries has not increased to the extent seen in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Housing activity showed signs of dropping off from peak levels during the latter part of the summer, but the decline in mortgage rates this fall produced an upturn in several indicators of demand for single-family housing, including a rebound in a survey index of homebuying conditions. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The high oil prices would themselves cut into demand growth and tend to stabilize the system. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Financial factors also seemed likely on balance to accommodate continuing growth in consumer spending, in particular the marked increases that had occurred in the value of stock holdings and a still-ample availability of credit to most households. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since mid-June; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their economies, especially for businesses, such as restaurants and bars, providing services that entail personal interactions; and some high-frequency indicators that pointed to a deceleration in economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This was before inflation really was under control, but, you know, it’s very interesting to look at the history. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack, although the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (ECB) drew on its swap line with the Federal Reserve. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | They would account for the effects of higher energy prices on the real disposable income and spending demands of the household sector. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Reserve market conditions associated with this directive had been expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As is evident in the right-hand chart, the relationship between the growth differential and capital inflows to EMEs seems to be quite strong. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And similar, sometimes even sharper, trajectories of house prices have been witnessed in some economies in which the central banks said they were paying more attention to asset prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In essence, monetary credibility helps the central bank do its job, by inducing private sector participants also to take actions that help achieve the central bank's low inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In Japan, consumer prices were about unchanged, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | With the latter displaying relative vigor, the value of domestic imports was likely to continue to exceed that of exports by a substantial margin, thereby tending to perpetuate the large current account deficits that had worrisome implications for the future. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Much of this performance was fueled by an investment boom that also contributed importantly to rapid growth in labor productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | it does have a bearing on the inflation outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In a virtuous circle, stable inflation expectations help the central bank to keep inflation low even as it retains substantial freedom to respond to disturbances to the broader economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Estimates by the staff of the Federal Reserve indicate that about 40 percent of the growth in outstanding home mortgage debt during the past five years originated as financing the extraction of home equity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Or the 1990s could be used as an illustration of how monetary policy could lower inflation, with concomitant gains in terms of full employment and long-term economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, survey data on labor market attitudes of both consumers and businesses had not signaled a significant deterioration in employment prospects. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Money versus Interest Rates For most of the post-World War II period, monetary economists have vigorously debated whether the Fed should target money or interest rates in setting policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Long-run price stability certainly is essential for achieving maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Therefore, maximum employment (at least if interpreted as full employment or being at NAIRU) and price stability, the statutory mandate of the Federal Reserve, are compatible in the long run. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But even for many other workers, a rapidly evolving work environment in which the skill demands of their jobs are changing can lead to very real anxiety and insecurity about losing their jobs. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year, but they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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