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2	Expectations of greater and longer-lasting slack in labor and product markets than anticipated earlier had led to downward revisions to forecasts of wage and price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Monetary Policy in a World without Treasuries Today, monetary policy decisions are implemented through a mix of outright purchases and sales of assets held in the Fed's portfolio, temporary operations through repurchase agreements, and discount window loans.2 It seems to me that the same three operations, though perhaps in different proportions, could be used in the absence of Treasury securities.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Discussion of Communications Regarding Economic Projections As a follow-up to the FOMC's discussion in October about providing more information on the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy, the staff presented several options for enhancing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But an intriguing alternative is to set a target for the price level.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Inflation has continued to run below our longer-run objective, in part reflecting lower energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	These included a decline in the cost of business capital, a recent rise in orders and backlogs of nondefense capital goods, persisting gains in productivity that undoubtedly pointed to growing profit opportunities, progress in strengthening business balance sheets, and reduced capital overhangs.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Most participants expected that, following the slowdown in the first quarter, real economic activity would resume expansion at a moderate pace, and that labor market conditions would improve further.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Pursuant to the Committee's instructions in March, the staff had activated its study of the possible employment of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Maes) in outright System open market operations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So we want to see that healthy process unfold as we decide what the true state of the economy is, and we think it will evolve in a way that will mean lower inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year but remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In conjunction with the FOMC meeting in April, all meeting participants (Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents) provided annual projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for the period 2008 through 2010.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Although the Fed hasn't started raising rates or reducing the balance sheet, interest rates have moved up notably.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	As a result, the likely pace and extent of policy easing expected by investors increased, and yields on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury coupon securities fell.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants noted that the timing of the resumption of growth in the U. S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place, as well as the success of those measures, and on the responses of other policies, including fiscal policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In contrast to price inflation, labor costs appeared to have remained quiescent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The external sector was expected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The guidance indicates an expectation that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range of the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	I believe the current move can be justified in a forward-looking variant of the Taylor Rule, where today's policy depends on the forecast of future output gaps and inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Recent data pointed to little change in underlying inflation trends.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It was to do with, you know, strong monetary policy and fiscal stimulus into an economy that was recovering rapidly, and in which there were these supply-side barriers which effectively led to, you know, in certain parts of the economy, what you might call a vertical supply curve.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	LBOs, and other forms of private equity investment, may force management to implement strategic changes rapidly to restore the firmâ€™s return on equity and boost share prices, in part by increasing financial leverage.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	M3 growth slowed less than that of M2 in November, in part because of stepped-up issuance of large time deposits as banks reduced their reliance on funding from overseas offices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	We need to avoid expectations rising so much that they become a factor that drives inflation higher.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The slower growth of M2 followed strong expansion in August and September, however, and growth since midyear was at about the same pace as in the first half of the year.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And, you know, we do want inflation to run moderately above 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had increased, or pointed to downward pressures from global or technology-related factors that could continue to suppress inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Communications about monetary policy over the intermeeting period generally had little effect on Treasury yields or the expected path of the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	As yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities rose roughly in line with their nominal counterparts, longer-term inflation compensation remained about unchanged.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	The real federal funds rate probably was not greatly out of line with its appropriate level, and the rise in longer-term interest rates and the exchange rate meant that financial conditions were now exerting more restraint than earlier this year.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Now I would like to turn to the current economic scene and this week's FOMC decision.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Measures of inflation compensation based on TIPS fell in response to the soft reading on core inflation in the November CPI release	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The role of the Board vis-à-vis the regional Banks was elevated in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and in the early years of the Great Depression, but the combination of centralized and regional responsibilities remains an important strength of the Federal Reserve System, as I'll explain shortly when I discuss the formulation of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Continued gains in employment and income, high household net worth, and low gasoline prices were viewed as factors that should support consumer spending in coming months.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Some members expressed a concern that in this context any further adverse shocks could have disproportionate effects, resulting in a significant slowing in growth going forward.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	While participants generally felt that the pace of underlying productivity growth remained robust, careful attention would need to be paid to developments regarding unit labor costs and profit margins.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	There is, to be sure, no trade-off and hence no inconsistency between full employment and price stability in the long run.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	To be clear, when I say "risk premium" I mean the additional compensation required by investors for holding a risky security--that is, one with uncertain returns--above the compensation that would be demanded by risk-neutral investors who care only about expected returns.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Net exports subtracted more than 1/2 percentage point from GDP growth in both 2014 and 2015,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Well, if the economy worsens and inflation remains relatively low, then we wouldn’t begin to exit, and, therefore, we wouldn’t change the language.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that labor market conditions had improved further in late 2015 even as economic growth slowed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	So the Committee estimates that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is 5.0 to 5.2.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A couple of participants remarked that the very low levels of inventories would likely be a factor supporting increases in production as demand continued to recover.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Rather, central banks have learned over the years that their policies should be devoted to fostering macroeconomic balance and price stability.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	too pessimistic on job creation and the decline in the unemployment rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	I mean, we—the—again, the relationship between slack in the economy and inflation is weak, has been weak.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Our mandate, sorry, is price inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The staff forecast for total PCE price inflation in 2018 was revised up slightly, mainly because of a faster-than-expected increase in consumer energy prices in the second half.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	But the cumulative force of recent developments appears likely to yield a slowing in the pace of growth next year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Although not without some serious shortcomings, the published productivity data provide little encouragement to the view that there has been a significant improvement in underlying productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. "	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But again, in terms of terminology, I guess I would reject that term for the Federal Reserve because we are going to be evenhanded in treating the price stability and maximum employment parts of our mandate on a level footing.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh use a similar methodology and find a range from a little less than 1-1/2 percent to about 3 percent with a central tendency of around 2-1/4 percent.5 These estimates are clearly plausible, but history does raise some warning flags concerning the length of time that productivity growth continues elevated.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	President George dissented because she believed that an unchanged setting of policy was appropriate based on the incoming data and the outlook for economic activity over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	This change has led many governments to be more willing to adopt institutional changes to improve central bank governance that have bolstered central bank credibility for maintaining low inflation.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It was observed that, after the early 1980s, the pass-through of energy prices into core inflation had been quite limited, suggesting that, in current circumstances, core inflation could stay relatively low and overall inflation would probably drop back if inflation expectations remained contained.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The effects of reduced monetary and fiscal policy stimulus were expected to be counterbalanced by continued low long-term interest rates and an abatement of energy-related headwinds.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Inflation readings available since the April meeting continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and continued decreases in prices of non-energy imports.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	By fostering increased interactions among central banks, academics, and the public in many different countries, globalization has helped spread a common culture that stresses the benefits of achieving price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Moreover, survey data on labor market attitudes of both consumers and businesses had not signaled a significant deterioration in employment prospects.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	However, the volatility of these and other commodity prices is such that possible future increases in these prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	They also generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Most believed that downside risks to economic growth had diminished somewhat since the April meeting, but were still significant.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But now, let’s go to your—the part of your question about inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	A currency board and dollarization are tighter versions of a fixed exchange rate regime--that is, fixed exchange rate systems from which it is progressively more costly to exit.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	To do this will demand not only greater specialized knowledge, but also an ability to deal with risk and uncertainty.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	But the advent of the war has led to a significant hit to real incomes from large price increases in energy and other commodities in some of the most severely affected economies.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Employment had risen a little, but not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Some have been concerned that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury might be working at cross purposes today to the extent that reductions in the Treasury debt supply have lead to declines in longer-term Treasury rates at a time when monetary policy is aiming to slow the pace of economic activity to a more sustainable rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Private nonfarm payroll employment increased appreciably on balance over September and October.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Looking beyond the near term, the members anticipated that as the prevailing uncertainties began to diminish, the economy's resiliency abetted by broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal polices and the continuation of a strong uptrend in productivity would underpin a gradual economic recovery.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Participants generally interpreted the information that became available during the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic growth would most likely remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up very gradually.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Together these structural changes would imply that the economy can now operate at a lower unemployment rate and at a higher growth rate than previously without inflationary consequences.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, I can provide you with some insight into the way the FOMC functions and the impact of monetary policy on the U.S. and global economies.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The effect can be accentuated by the temporary parking in liquid accounts of the proceeds from the more-frequent turnover and refinancings that often accompany a house price boom.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And that’s because of this misalignment between supply and demand.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	First, the expansion of trade may cause domestic inflation to depend to a greater extent on the prices of imported goods--not only because imported goods enter the consumer basket or (in the case of imported intermediate goods) affect the costs of domestic production, but because competition with imports affects the pricing power of domestic producers.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	One of the things we’ve learned from our financial crisis and from a series of financial crises in history and around the globe is that, very commonly, when the economy takes a hit and falls into a recession, that productivity doesn’t pick up to pre-recession levels and that there looks like there is a permanent hit to the path of potential output for the economy, which is called “hysteresis.” And I raised the question as to whether or not this might operate in the opposite direction as well.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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