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2 | My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The evidence suggests that new technology often results in more growth in employment in innovating industries. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and—in the same sentence—that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But you do see growth in services, so you—this pattern around the world of Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL weak manufacturing but growth in the far larger part of the services economy, which has led to low unemployment, good job creation, rising wages, that’s kind of the two big pieces of it that you see. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And—but inflation expectations did not move strongly down here in the United States. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Business and household spending are increasing at rates consistent with moderate economic growth, though household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | At the same time, business firms generally were not raising their prices sufficiently to compensate for faster increases in their labor costs, to the extent that the latter were occurring, evidently because of the persistence of intense competition in most markets. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, with rising productivity and moderate wage gains likely continuing to help hold down unit labor costs, the outlook for subdued inflation remained promising, especially for the nearer term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | First, if, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3 percent, I will consider that much more than a "moderate" overshoot of our 2 percent longer-run inflation objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Core measures of price inflation had moved up over recent quarters and particularly so over the last few months. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | If, in their quest to reduce macroeconomic risk, policymakers overshoot and ease policy too much, they need to be willing to expeditiously remove at least part of that ease before inflationary pressures become a threat. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Funding of our current account deficit likely will become more difficult when home bias approaches its practical minimum. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period, while multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, over the past century, by far the smallest part of the growth in America's real gross domestic product reflects increased physical product measured in bulk or weight. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I will then turn to three challenges our dynamic economy is posing for policy at present: First, what would the consequences of a sharp rise in the price of oil be for the U.S. economy? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A variety of indicators, along with anecdotal reports, suggested that employment was expanding at a fairly good pace and labor compensation was rising moderately. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Credit conditions in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector continued to ease, and growth in CRE loans at banks stayed solid. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | First, the projected rates of productivity gains and potential output growth over the medium term were trimmed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | It’s where we always want inflation to be heading. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Last year was the fifth consecutive year that inflation, measured by the chain GDP price index, was 2.6% or lower and the 5-year compound annual inflation rate is now 2.5%, the lowest since 1967. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | So the FOMC will always, in some sense, trump the projections of forward interest rates, but clearly, because the participants and the people around the table are the same, the projections should give significant information about where the FOMC is likely to go. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The persistence of underutilized resources was expected to foster some moderation in core price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, the fact that most other industrial countries did not experience the same increase in productivity growth as the United States during that period, even as they became more open to trade, suggests that the relationship between productivity and trade may be complex. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Measures of inflation compensation based on TIPS fell in response to the soft reading on core inflation in the November CPI release but subsequently moved up against the backdrop of an improving global growth outlook, higher commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar, and the stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation in the December CPI release. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But low rates are not solely or even primarily a result of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies; they are rooted in the market's expectations of low inflation and the weakness of the economic recovery, factors weighing on rates not just in the United States but throughout the advanced economies.7 Given low real rates and low inflation, expected nominal returns should be low across all asset classes. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share with you, the students of South Dakota State University (SDSU), my experience as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and my outlook for the U.S. economy.1 Today I will speak to you about my outlook for the U.S. economy and what the Federal Reserve has been doing to support economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | So, as you know, the ultimate focus that we have is on the real economy: maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But in our new century, the simple notion of price has turned decidedly ambiguous. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers--and many of us, of course, are both. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Therefore, maximum employment (at least if interpreted as full employment or being at NAIRU) and price stability, the statutory mandate of the Federal Reserve, are compatible in the long run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Traditionally, these two measures of excess demand move together over the cycle. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We have not seen wage growth pick up. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In December, the consumer price index (CPI) rose somewhat faster than in recent months, primarily reflecting an upturn in consumer energy prices | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | With regard to the consensus in favor of moving from an assessment of risks weighted toward rising inflation to one that was weighted toward economic weakness, with no intermediate issuance of a balanced risks assessment, some members observed that such a change was likely to be viewed as a relatively rapid shift by some observers. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Net exports subtracted more than 1/2 percentage point from GDP growth in both 2014 and 2015, | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.8 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Such a jump could raise core inflation temporarily if it is passed through to other prices or if it contributes to increasing inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Implications of Economic Theory I am going to assert some conclusions based on economic theory that help to understand the potential for monetary policy to achieve these objectives and the consistency among them. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | But the members generally were concerned that inflation might begin to rise over the intermediate term, especially if labor markets tightened further. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Productivity Growth and Cost Reductions So, what happened? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Equity prices have recently increased considerably, pushing the forward price-earnings ratio further above its historical median (slide). | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | If this policy succeeds ex post, inflation expectations become anchored at the new lower level of inflation, and policy can, then, respond to demand shocks by adjusting real rates pro-cyclically, the opposite of what is required when initial inflation is too high and inflation expectations are not anchored.13 Inflation will also be pro-cyclical with well-anchored inflation expectations if demand shocks dominate and inflation expectations remain anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In these circumstances, the Committee believed that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured but noted that it would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | You know, it says that we will seek to—seek inflation that runs moderately above 2 percent for some time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | And as I mentioned earlier, the unemployment decline last month was more than 100 percent accounted for by declines in participation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The drop in the unemployment rate over the past year, while welcome and significant, could overstate the degree of improvement in labor market conditions, in part because of the decline in the labor force participation rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Financial conditions affecting emerging market economies continued to improve for a time after the Committee eased monetary policy at its November 17 meeting, but that trend was subsequently reversed after Brazil's legislature decided to reject a key fiscal reform measure. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, waiting was an acceptable alternative given the favorable economic news and the persisting uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In his view, historical precedents suggested that prolonged periods of taut labor markets were eventually associated with rising inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A few participants particularly stressed the high uncertainty associated with the expected future path of the unemployment rate and commented that the unemployment rate could rise by considerably more than in the staff forecast. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | But because the United States has run persistent and sizable primary trade deficits since 1990, the net external debt is now 25 percent of GDP and rising sharply. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee reiterated, however, that purchases were not on a preset course, and that its decisions about the pace of purchases would remain contingent on its outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Federal Reserve then sets its policy to achieve the broad objectives assigned to it, specifically, price stability and full employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | I believe the current move can be justified in a forward-looking variant of the Taylor Rule, where today's policy depends on the forecast of future output gaps and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Foreign economic growth remained sluggish, restrained by weak activity in Europe and the associated spillovers--including through trade--to the rest of the world. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Improved prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China and accommodative monetary policy were cited as driving factors that outweighed weaker-than-expected announcements of corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018 and earnings projections for 2019. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Recent data, supported by anecdotal reports from several though not all parts of the country, suggested that residential building activity was slowing somewhat, apparently in lagged response to earlier increases in mortgage interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although some members noted that a case could be made that the risks to inflation were now somewhat skewed to the upside and those to sustainable economic growth perhaps to the downside, the most likely outcome remained one of stable prices and sustainable growth, and the Committee agreed that it should retain a balanced assessment of risks conditional on appropriate policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the past, a reasonable goal might have been to maintain a zero deficit in our on-budget accounts--those accounts that exclude the Social Security and Medicare surplus--and to begin a serious discussion of reforms to Social Security and Medicare to bring them closer into actuarial balance. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These interest rate changes also have effects on asset prices, and thereby on household wealth, as well as on the exchange value of the dollar and, thereby, on net exports and core import prices.7 However, relative to balance sheet policies, the influence of the short-term rate is far better understood and extensively tested: There have been several decades and many business cycles over which to measure and analyze how the federal funds rate affects financial markets and real activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Higher productivity growth has apparently increased aggregate demand through at least three channels. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, a couple of participants noted that the recent oil price decline could also be associated with increasing oil supply rather than softening global demand. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months, while core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | On March 16, we launched a program to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in whatever amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | This monetary expansion could generate domestic inflation unless it is sterilized with other open market sales of securities--and the mere scale of present and expected future debt stocks may make continued sterilization impossible. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed, but inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | That central bank independence promotes lower inflation in developed countries is well-established by the economic literature. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Besides influencing the near-term course of important economic variables, such as gross domestic product growth, inflation, and profits, productivity largely determines our society's long-term economic welfare. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It was to do with, you know, strong monetary policy and fiscal stimulus into an economy that was recovering rapidly, and in which there were these supply-side barriers which effectively led to, you know, in certain parts of the economy, what you might call a vertical supply curve. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The period of sub-par expansion was expected to foster an appreciable easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The labor force participation rate, along with the employment-to-population ratio, increased, on net, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Some business executives reportedly believed that, with aggregate demand expanding robustly and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar putting upward pressure on import prices, a degree of "pricing power" had returned. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases, but PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions; that is, the capacity utilization rate is lower than would have been expected, based on past experience, at the prevailing unemployment rate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Analysis suggests it could take many years with a formal AIT rule to return the price level to target following a lower-bound episode, and a mechanical AIT rule is likely to become increasingly difficult to explain and implement as conditions change over time.15 In contrast, FAIT is better suited for the highly uncertain and dynamic context in which policymaking takes place. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Under this interpretation, the lower line in the bottom panel of Figure 1 is an estimate of market inflation expectations over the next five years, and the upper line represents five-year forward expectations of inflation, that is, today's expectation of what average inflation will be between 2009 and 2014. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And, of course, despite the improvements seen in the May jobs report, the unemployment rate, at 13.3 percent, remains historically high. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We also said we wouldn’t raise rates just in response to very low unemployment, in the absence of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | My general point is that inflation is much too high, and the outlook for inflation remains significantly uncertain. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Financial markets seem to think the same—5-year breakeven inflation expectations are around 2.5 percent, and 5-year, 5-year-forward measures are around 2 percent, when adjusted for the difference between CPI (consumer price index) and PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation rates.6 Hence, markets do not believe the current factors pushing up inflation will last for long. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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