text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace smoke by July 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace vape by July 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Primoz Roglic begin 2024 with Team Jumbo Visma? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will there be any unfaithful electors in 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will FiveThirtyEight's final 2024 presidential forecast give Biden a >=80% chance of winning? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Conditional on a No Labels candidate getting at least 5% of the popular vote, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview the next US President by 2029? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? | 0.35 | Manifold |
By 2025, percent of 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability solved? | 0.33 | Manifold |
If Lantern Bioworks successfully recreates BCS3-L1, will 10,000+ people receive the cavity prevention treatment by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Uber forces riders to tip in the US before 2025 | 0.43 | Manifold |
Присоединит ли Россия Молдову к концу 2024 года? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Connie Chan (District 1 SF Supervisor) win re-election in 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Donanemab get approved by the FDA before 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will babies have the right to vote in presidential elections in the US by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Messi play in MLS in 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Messi be named Most Valuable Player for the MLS 2024 season? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will "Bettors distribution plot" be added to Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Swedish Green Party (Miljöpartiet) have only one leader at the end of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will bioautomation platforms auto-label test tubes and other PCR tubes by 2027? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will we have widely used recommender systems that uses brain data by 2030? 🧠 | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the 2026 Commonwealth Games go ahead? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Afanasiev's proof of the Riemann Hypothesis be accepted by the Clay Institute by the end of July 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will DeepMind Neko be published before 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Llama release results in successful legal action against meta before 2025 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Biden remain President through end of June 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will a porn be filmed in space by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a baby be born in space by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Pearl Jam release their next studio album before 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
In 2100, will there be an expert consensus that aliens have been observed? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the number of truck drivers in the US more than halve before 2029? | 0.17 | Manifold |
What will be the population of “The Line” in 2033? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will an accident involving miniaturized fusion reactors wipe out humanity before the year 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the US and Iran go to war by end 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will India be the superpower till 2035? | 0.26 | Manifold |
The musical artist Joji switches his main identity again by 2030 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Physical mail filtering company exists in US 2029 | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously until 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be a major change to the balancing of German Jugger Spars before 2025? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Are Korean and Japanese languages genetically related? (Resolves to 2050 consensus.) | 0.26 | Manifold |
Elon mentions one of 8 games before 2025 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Trump meets Elon by 2025 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Trump in or near any Tesla vehicle by 2025 | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope win the 2024 presidential election? | 0.01 | Manifold |
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he win the popular vote? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will either major party ticket change in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the "Brand-Huang-Mendoza Tripartisan Land Use Initiative" qualify for the November 2024 California ballot? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Qin Gang still be Foreign Minister of China at the beginning of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
I will live outside the United States in 2030 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the for-profit arm of OpenAI be shut down or otherwise separated from the non-profit arm before 01/01/2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Meta pull Llama 2 / make it closed source due to PR before 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will we be able to transition Male bodies into Female bodies by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will we have a safe and reliable way to connect cameras to the brain by 2030?🎥🧠 | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will a mammal photosynthesise by 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will we have cheap long-distance jet packs by 2030?🔥 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will we have sex robots that are more sexually stimulating to bang than women by 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will we have Virtual Reality that's indistinguishable from reality by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will we have a way of increasing Orangutan intelligence and language capability to at least human level by 2030 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Tesla (TSLA) Stock Split Before September 1st 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Michele Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.39 | Manifold |
What will HLI estimate the value of StrongMinds’ intervention to be as a multiple of cash in July 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Giving What We Can handle donations to the Happier Lives Institute in July 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Giving What We Can recommend StrongMinds in July 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will more than 10% of US young men have tried an "AI girlfriend" by end of 2024. | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be definite proof of God by 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will we have contact with intelligent alien life by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will we get very strong evidence that the universe is Turing computable by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will xAI rework their alignment strategy by the start of 2026? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the US National detained in North Korea after crossing the border be released before the end of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
I will live in the United States in 2030 | 0.82 | Manifold |
Rolls Royce SMR nuclear power by 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI "merge and assist" before building AGI? (closes 2030) | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will expert consensus in 2050 hold that Japonic languages are genetically related to another major language family? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Trump in or near Cybertruck by 2025 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will expert consensus in 2050 be that Japonic languages are related to another major family? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Picture of Trump in or near a Tesla cybertruck by 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the November 2024 Fed U-6 Unemployment Rate be >12.5%? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will human teleportation exist before 2364? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will non-US stocks outperform US stocks in 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will value stocks outperform growth stocks in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
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