text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Someone Dye in 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Female Head of Mossad before 2028 | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will 'Trustyworthy-ish' be automated before 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to Earth before 9999? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the PSF intentionally stop to provide Python in the EU before 2028? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will someone get canceled for a position held on Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Anchor Steam beer be in production on 10 July 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Mana-chan wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Lebron James own part of an NBA team by 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will @levifinkelstein cause human extinction by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Alex Mashinsky be found guilty for any crime related to Celsius Network by 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040. | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be an official Manifold cryptocurrency by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will US headline inflation be negative at any point before 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will a 10th Quentin Tarantino film come out before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Cornel West win the Green Party 2024 nomination for the US president? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will cameron's next partner be chloe? (before 2024) | 0.99 | Manifold |
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2030 | 0.19 | Manifold |
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2028 | 0.15 | Manifold |
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2026 | 0.07 | Manifold |
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2024 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Flow (Adam Neumann's new company) launch before 2024 ends? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP through 2024 | 0.23 | Manifold |
David Miscavige is still the effective leader of the church of Scientology through 2030 | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2100? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2050? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Tom Cruise is the effective leader of the church of scientology before 2031 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the Tampa Bay Rays leave St. Petersburg before 2028? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Video footage of David Miscavige in a trial, deposition, or legal proceedings available publicly before 2031 | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Sarah McBride win the the Delaware US House Seat in the 2024 Election? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the US enter Stagflation by the end of 2024 [Swift Centre]? | 0.05 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden is not the nominee, will a Democrat win the 2024 presidential election? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will US E-Commerce penetration return to trendline (16.9%) on Q2 2024? [600Ṁ subsidy] | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Telegram anonymous numbers be supported by any other project at end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
What will be the age of the oldest person alive in 2100? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Putin ends war in Ukraine before 2025 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Putin ends war in Ukraine before 2026 | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the FAO Food Price Index climb more than 70% in a twelve month period before 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will EU ban fur farming by the end of 2024 | 0.5 | Manifold |
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035 | 0.32 | Manifold |
By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Canadian defence spending top 2.0% for any year before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
If the KMT or TPP win the presidential election, will Taiwan and China implement the CSSTA before 2028? | 0.45 | Manifold |
If the KMT or TPP win the Presidential Election, will Taiwan be an Observer at the WHO in 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Adam Silver be NBA Commissioner in 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the NBA add an additional two teams by 2028? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will neutrinoless double beta decay be observed before 2100? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be a genetic engineering method capable of changing an adult's chromosomal sex by 2100? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the new vehicles in CPI for All Urban Consumers: New Vehicles in U.S. City Average index be <150 by the end of 2024 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will there be a fission power plant with no moving parts by 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will there be subcritical accelerator-driven fission plants by 2050? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Despera be released before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Callahan make at least one post on YouTube in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
By EOY 2050, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Ryan Salame (ex FTX exec) plead guilty before 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Ryan Salame (ex FTX exec) be indicted before 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Andy Jassy leave the role of Amazon’s CEO by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form? | 0.63 | Manifold |
EOY 2030, what % of MIT undergrads self-modified to reduce their sleep needs using medical tools unavailable in 2023? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will there be a survivable way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM by the end of 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
What percent of enrolled MIT students will have undergone artificial gain of intelligence at the end of 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will any NYC transit agency make reforms Alon Levy approves for by the end of 2026? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will any of the 'Hong Kong Eight' appear in police custody in Hong Kong before 2028? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be a Horatio Nelson biopic/epic historical drama film before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Sergio Perez drive for Red Bull in the 2024 F1 Season? | 0.63 | Manifold |
What is 5000000 ^ (5000001 ^ (5000002 ^ (... 5000050))) % 4816745263172635244 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a new record for the warmest recorded year (globally) before 2028? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before Q4 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Zelenskyy attend the 2024 NATO summit? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will shrimp go extinct before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will humanity go extinct before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
During the 2024 cycle, will a GOP candidate for federal or statewide office smoke weed in a campaign commercial? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Google’s AI Web Publisher Controls effort culminate in a resolution to further restrict web crawling by 2024 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will destiny do any cosplay before July 11th 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Jimmy Carter wipe out humanity by 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell be funding constrained through 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will a Macbook Pro be released with an OLED screen by the end of 2025? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Jimmy Carter before the year 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
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