text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the top marginal tax rate in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will my Manifold net worth be 3000Ṁ or more by the end of 2023? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before Q2 2025? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Google Colab links be valid permalinks by 2025? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030 | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Dean Preston be re-elected to the SF Board of Supervisors in 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the Nim programming language be in the top 20 in the TIOBE index by the end of 2028? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will it seem safe to walk around Civic Center in SF at night by 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will @jskf be trustworthy-ish by the end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Olympics take place in Paris, as planned? | 0.96 | Manifold |
What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
What is the probability that there will be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Texas by more than 5% in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Florida by more than 5% in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will any current U.S. national laboratory be shut down by 2040? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will any new U.S. national laboratory be created by 2040? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Remake of Casablanca before 2030 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Discord launch a clip service before the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Bayclub Broadway Tennis Center expand pickleball before 2029 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Leo Messi become MLS 2024 Top Scorer? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Cardi B at the end of 2040? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Netflix officially confirm Witcher season 5 by July 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Japan's TFR surpass India's by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Proportion of motor vehicle-related emergency room visits falls by more than 50% by 2030 | 0.41 | Manifold |
@PeterWildeford by July 16th 2024 (negligible M$ liquidity subsidy!!) | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace test positive for COVID at any time before the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace smoke by July 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Pulsar Fusion perform its In Orbit Demonstration by 2028? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace vape by July 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a commercial passenger airliner be hijacked anywhere in the world by the end of 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will xAI release a publicly available chatbot by 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028? | 0.31 | Manifold |
A major tennis tournament only allows one serve before 2030 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Tesla employee count at end of 2024 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Maximum public road speed in mph in California in 2029 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Global car traffic deaths in 2026 | 0.65 | Manifold |
There is a self-driving fire truck in service in California before 2031 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the tipping point state be decided by less than 2% in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will one party win at least 250 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will one party win at least 228 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will at least 5 U.S. House elections be decided by less than 0.5% in 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will at least 25 U.S. House races be decided by less than 3% in 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will at least 20 U.S. House races be decided by less than 3% in 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will at least 15 U.S. House races be decided by less than 2% in 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any 2024 House race be decided by less than 0.5%? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will any 2024 House race be decided by less than 0.1%? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will at least 10 House races be decided by <1% in 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Steam launch a clip service before the end of 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will any 2024 presidential candidate win a state with less than 50% of the vote? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will any 2024 U.S. Senate election be won without the majority of the vote? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.1%? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.5%? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will The Pirate Bay shut down at any point before 2026? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Library Genesis completely shut down at any point before 2026? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will any country ban the use of comic sans in official documents by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will an AI perform a live concert with original music in front of a physical audience of 10,000+ by the end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Threads have "culturally dethroned" Twitter as the de facto online public square at end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will my voice pass before 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 24 hours occur by the end of 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 1 hour occur by the end of 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a global* internet outage lasting more than 5 minutes occur by the end of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Glenn Youngkin outperform Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP Primary if he runs? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be another Taylor Swift song-Magic: The Gathering card name collision by end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will it be proven that there are finitely many different 3x3 magic squares of distinct perfect squares by end of 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 | 0.67 | Manifold |
Leo J Ryan Park in Foster City adds more pickleball courts before 2026 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Stanford adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2031 | 0.5 | Manifold |
NCAA adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2031 | 0.39 | Manifold |
NCAA adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2026 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Stanford adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2026 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Lemmy Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Remco Evenepoel ride with Quick-Step in 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Drew DeVault's SourceHut complete alpha and start beta before or at EOY 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
How much vram will Nvidia 5090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the population of Canada be reported to have hit 45 million people before 2028? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations video 'The Goddess of Everything Else' hit 1 million views before 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will someone get canceled for a question asked on Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman do a podcast interview with David Deutsch in 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will anyone in the US die as a result of political violence before May 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will China complete a massive hydropower development on the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will “Designer babies” be available by the year 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will another Pokémon Mystery Dungeon game be officially announced before EOY 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the 2026 Georgia Senate race go to a runoff? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Conditional on the 2024 election being a Trump-Biden rematch, will Trump win? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2027? | 0.41 | Manifold |
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