text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the Frontier Model Forum be disbanded by 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will X (formerly twitter) censor any registered U.S presidential candidates before the 2024 election? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will DeepMind publish on free energy computation before 2025 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Israel's economy shrink in 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025] | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 POTUS election win more than 25 states? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the Frontier Model Forum be disbanded by 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be a for-profit interpretability company valued at more than $100M by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will, at the end of 2024, I consider Frontier Model Forum to have been a success? (500M subsidy) | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Qin Gang be imprisoned by 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a new 'Wario Land' game released before the end of 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will LK-99 be in commercial use by the end of 2024 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations adapt another Scott Alexander post before the end of 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations create an animation of Universal Love, Said The Cactus Person by the end of 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Bluesky ATProto Hit Over 20k Stars on Github by June 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Every pass 200k subscribers by the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Apple officially announce the iPhone Ultra in 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Twitch rename before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Harvard end legacy admissions by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any country eliminate malaria within its borders in 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Russia ban personal computers and public internet access by 2040? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will we have "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" before 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will @kazoo be permanently removed from Manifold before 2024 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Youtube rename before 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a Just Stop Oil protestor die during or for the purposes of a protest by December 31, 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will SD Worx win more 2024 Womens World Tour races (one-day+stages+GCs) than all other teams combined? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace be at Vibecamp 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
AI Psychic Hotline by end of 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
By the end of year 2025, will a counter-example to the Collatz Conjecture be provided that is less than a googolplex? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will an AI commit suicide by 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins New Mexico win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Virginia win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Alaska win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Maine win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2028 presidential election? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Iowa win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Ohio win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Nebraska's second Congressional district win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Maine's second Congressional district win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins New Hampshire win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Minnesota win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Texas win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Florida win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Nevada win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Pennsylvania win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins North Carolina win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Georgia win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Arizona win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the candidate who wins Wisconsin win the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will X, the everything app, include a video feature called "X videos" by 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Manifest Be Hosted again in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will there be 5000 people cryopreserved in China before October 2028? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a significant security flaw be discovered in the WorldCoin Protocol before 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will X.com be a porn site by the end of 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the SALT Tax Deduction Limitation in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Microsoft win $10+ million from Twitter for trademarking X before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Vice President in 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Wheel of Time on Amazon Prime Video be renewed for a fourth season by December 31, 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Luis Suarez play for Inter Miami in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Elon Musk will be worth less than $200B on December 31, 2024 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the wheat price in South Africa peak over 50cent/kg before July 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
will destiny shoot qorantos out off the orbit before 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will 5 million humans have claimed an ID from a WorldCoin Orb before 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will X (formerly Twitter) release credit cards before EoY 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will new sanctions be included in the German Jugger rule book before 2025? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Maine? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Oregon? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Montana? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Kansas? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Missouri? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry Nebraska's 1st congressional district? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry Maine's 2nd congressional district? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of South Carolina? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Alaska? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Colorado? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Virginia? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Mexico? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Hampshire? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry Nebraska's 2nd congressional district? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Minnesota? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Michigan? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Pennsylvania? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Iowa? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Texas? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Florida? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of North Carolina? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Nevada? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Georgia? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Wisconsin? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Arizona? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Ohio? | 0.44 | Manifold |
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