text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there be another general election in Spain before July 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Twitter (now X) become net-cashflow positive (profitable) by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Iowa in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Ohio in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Maine in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Texas in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the winner of New Hampshire in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Minnesota in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Battle of the Mo's: Will Montana be closer than Missouri in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Florida in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will the winner of ME-2 in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the district? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the winner of NE-2 in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the district? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Michigan in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Nevada in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Wisconsin in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the winner of Georgia in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will twitter.com still exist? (2024) | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will we believe X was a good business move for Twitter in mid 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will an organism's scientific name be named after Jose Luis ricon by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will we independently design an enzyme capable of breaking some form of lipofuscin by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold feature a breakdown of realized/unrealized profits by 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Trump be held under house arrest at Trump Tower at any point before 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will it regret its decision? | 0.72 | Manifold |
If humanity goes extinct by 2030, will AI unwipe out humanity by 2040? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Kalshi have a market on the 2024 elections? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024) | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Aella be romantically involved with Destiny by the end of 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina win a majority of the vote in the state? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a coup attempt in Russia by the end of 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the Wagner Group actually start a coup by the end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Leo Messi become MLS 2024 Top Scorer? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there have been a new president who isn't a Protestant or non denominational Christian after Inauguration Day 2045? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will my family continue to call me fat by 2035? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 election have higher turnout than 2020? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Coelacanths go extinct by 2080? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will an exotic physics catastrophe wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will a third party or independent candidate win at least 1 state in the 2024 Presidential Election ? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be a Al Smith dinner with both presidential candidates attending and delivering stand-up routines in 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Apple remove iMessage and/or FaceTime from the UK market by the end of 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the Lobster programming language appear in the TIOBE index (top 100) by the end of 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the 80,000 hours podcast release an episode about COVID origins by end 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Anthony Fauci or Francis Collins be criminally charged in relation to COVID by 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Kristian Andersen resign his position at Scripps Research by end 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Before 2026, will Barbie and Oppenheimer fuse into one super-movie? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will @LexFridman interview Theo Baker by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Theo Baker create a market on Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2024 than over 2023? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be on the GOP ticket in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be an officially registered Rationalussy Party before the 2024 U.S. elections? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will any independent or third-party candidate (other than Sanders or King) be elected to the Senate in 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will any Senate seat flip from Democratic to Republican in the 2024 elections? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will any Senate seat flip from Republican to Democratic in the 2024 elections? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will either party have a governing trifecta after the 2024 U.S. elections? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will another anime win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature before 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Apple release the iOrb by 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Arc browser have Windows out before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Cybertruck will outsell F150 by 2026 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Aliens kill at least one human before 2035 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the "series" by Levi of "Will someone claim the manalinks in Levi's server?" end before 2024? (Read Description) | 0.54 | Manifold |
What will the population of China be in 2040? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will @Seldon be at 5000 mana profit* or more at the end of 2023? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2029? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2029? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) will acquire a major AI company by 2025 | 0.52 | Manifold |
NASA's mission to the icy moons of Jupiter will discover evidence of extraterrestrial life by 2028 | 0.09 | Manifold |
The world will reach a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Whole Foods will expand its handprint payment system to all its US locations by 2025 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping visit Cuba by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
A new species of penguin will be discovered in the Antarctic region by 2030 | 0.07 | Manifold |
An Ice Age cave art replica will be created using renewable energy sources by 2028 | 0.5 | Manifold |
India's Chandrayaan-3 moon mission will discover a new source of water on the moon by 2025 | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing frontier model weights by the end of 2028? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Scientists will discover evidence of alien life in a lunar sample by 2025 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI's GPT-4 API support image inputs in 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the German CDU be part of a governing coalition with the Afd on the state or federal level before 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Washington Football Team change its name away from the Commanders before 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the Russian Orthodox Church restore full communion with the Patriarchate of Constantinople until 2050? | 0.66 | Manifold |
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