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If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.082 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (India) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vanguard Information Technology ETF will yield an inflation-adjusted return of 1.28k from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.082 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (India) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.4% of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050? According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthod... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.082 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (India) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Africa's GDP per capita PPP will be 12.3k in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)? South Africa seemingly faces an economic crisis.
[Cyril Madlala writes for Daily Maverick 13 July 2021](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-13-a-race-war-looms-if-the-government-cant-get-the-looting-under... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vanguard Information Technology ETF will yield an inflation-adjusted return of 1.28k from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.4% of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050? According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthod... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Assuming our future simulates us, what is the chance that the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date will be 13.4? Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are [very high](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom).
Under some scenarios, our current reality could be ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.4% of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050? According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthod... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Assuming our future simulates us, what is the chance that the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date will be 13.4? Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are [very high](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom).
Under some scenarios, our current reality could be ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Africa's GDP per capita PPP will be 12.3k in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)? South Africa seemingly faces an economic crisis.
[Cyril Madlala writes for Daily Maverick 13 July 2021](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-13-a-race-war-looms-if-the-government-cant-get-the-looting-under... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 1% of people in any major city or country will have experienced using augmented reality outside by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Africa's GDP per capita PPP will be 12.3k in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)? South Africa seemingly faces an economic crisis.
[Cyril Madlala writes for Daily Maverick 13 July 2021](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-13-a-race-war-looms-if-the-government-cant-get-the-looting-under... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Assuming our future simulates us, what is the chance that the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date will be 13.4? Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are [very high](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom).
Under some scenarios, our current reality could be ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 1% of people in any major city or country will have experienced using augmented reality outside by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 34.7 fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 1% of people in any major city or country will have experienced using augmented reality outside by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 34.7 fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an average of 222k people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022-2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an average of 222k people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022-2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024?
Keyword: 24.8
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 24.8% of young US men will be sexless in 2024? The share of US adults reporting no sexual intercourse in the previous year [seems to have gone up](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an average of 222k people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022-2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales will exceed 50 million units per year by 2030? Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) may become superior to PCs and smartphones for most tasks, including communication, digital assistance, writing, coding, and entertainment. Over... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales will exceed 50 million units per year by 2030? Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) may become superior to PCs and smartphones for most tasks, including communication, digital assistance, writing, coding, and entertainment. Over... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024?
Keyword: 24.8
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 24.8% of young US men will be sexless in 2024? The share of US adults reporting no sexual intercourse in the previous year [seems to have gone up](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales will exceed 50 million units per year by 2030? Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) may become superior to PCs and smartphones for most tasks, including communication, digital assistance, writing, coding, and entertainment. Over... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will not be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring integers by Jan 15, 2121? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2042? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Haredi share of Israel's population will reach 27.1 at its peak? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2042? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Haredi share of Israel's population will reach 27.1 at its peak? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Haredi share of Israel's population will reach 27.1 at its peak? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2042? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will not be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring integers by Jan 15, 2121? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first woman will win the World Chess Championships before 2119? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other will have a fraction of 0.831? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first woman will win the World Chess Championships before 2119? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Teodoro Obiang will leave office in Equatorial Guinea by 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first woman will win the World Chess Championships before 2119? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will not be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring integers by Jan 15, 2121? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other will have a fraction of 0.831? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Teodoro Obiang will leave office in Equatorial Guinea by 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Poland's Economist Democracy Index will be 7.64 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Poland's Economist Democracy Index will be 7.64 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Teodoro Obiang will leave office in Equatorial Guinea by 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the PAP will win 91.47% of seats in the next Singaporean general election? The PAP, or the People's action party, has won a supermajority of more than 2/3rds of seats for [every election in Singapore since 1968](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Action_Party).
However, since the 2011 ele... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that COVID-19 will be eradicated by 2071? Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as [Israel](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel).
Sufficiently widesprea... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024?
Keyword: 24.8
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 24.8% of young US men will be sexless in 2024? The share of US adults reporting no sexual intercourse in the previous year [seems to have gone up](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that COVID-19 will be eradicated by 2071? Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as [Israel](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel).
Sufficiently widesprea... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the PAP will win 91.47% of seats in the next Singaporean general election? The PAP, or the People's action party, has won a supermajority of more than 2/3rds of seats for [every election in Singapore since 1968](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Action_Party).
However, since the 2011 ele... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that COVID-19 will be eradicated by 2071? Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as [Israel](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel).
Sufficiently widesprea... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Poland's Economist Democracy Index will be 7.64 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the PAP will win 91.47% of seats in the next Singaporean general election? The PAP, or the People's action party, has won a supermajority of more than 2/3rds of seats for [every election in Singapore since 1968](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Action_Party).
However, since the 2011 ele... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other will have a fraction of 0.831? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Labour will win 428 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seats</l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. will be 29.8 years old in 2050? Future fertility rates are important for policy. The long-term changes in age structure and human capital have effects on society.
A major contributor is the age when women have their first child.
***What will be t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) will be disproved before 2126? The [Strong Exponential Type Hypothesis (SETH)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_time_hypothesis#Definition) is the claim that, for every \( \delta>0 \), if \(k\) is large the \(k\)-SAT problem takes time more ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. will be 29.8 years old in 2050? Future fertility rates are important for policy. The long-term changes in age structure and human capital have effects on society.
A major contributor is the age when women have their first child.
***What will be t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Conservative party will win 175 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Conservative party will win 175 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Labour will win 428 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seats</l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) will be disproved before 2126? The [Strong Exponential Type Hypothesis (SETH)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_time_hypothesis#Definition) is the claim that, for every \( \delta>0 \), if \(k\) is large the \(k\)-SAT problem takes time more ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Liberal Democrats will win 29.3 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Labour will win 428 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seats</l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Liberal Democrats will win 29.3 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Scottish National Party will win 26.9 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. will be 29.8 years old in 2050? Future fertility rates are important for policy. The long-term changes in age structure and human capital have effects on society.
A major contributor is the age when women have their first child.
***What will be t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) will be disproved before 2126? The [Strong Exponential Type Hypothesis (SETH)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_time_hypothesis#Definition) is the claim that, for every \( \delta>0 \), if \(k\) is large the \(k\)-SAT problem takes time more ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Conservative party will win 175 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Liberal Democrats will win 29.3 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Scottish National Party will win 26.9 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Scottish National Party will win 26.9 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will win 123 medals at Paris 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will USA top the medal table in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)
* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will win 123 medals at Paris 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will USA top the medal table in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)
* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be less than 1015 trillions of 2020 US$ by 2200? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 0.0100 c? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will win 123 medals at Paris 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will USA top the medal table in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)
* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be less than 1015 trillions of 2020 US$ by 2200? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body by 2038? Under various definitions of spaceflight, it's commonly accepted that as of this writing, [19 humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) have lost their lives taking p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 0.0100 c? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 0.0100 c? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1,000,002,200, in trillions of 2020 US$ will be greater than 1085? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1,000,002,200, in trillions of 2020 US$ will be greater than 1085? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the logarithm of GWP will be 5.48 in 2100? While raw temperature anomaly projections usually capture most of the attention focused on global warming, these raw figures by themselves convey little information about the potential economic (or... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be less than 1015 trillions of 2020 US$ by 2200? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1,000,002,200, in trillions of 2020 US$ will be greater than 1085? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA will next land astronauts on the Moon by Jun 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the logarithm of GWP will be 5.48 in 2100? While raw temperature anomaly projections usually capture most of the attention focused on global warming, these raw figures by themselves convey little information about the potential economic (or... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body by 2038? Under various definitions of spaceflight, it's commonly accepted that as of this writing, [19 humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) have lost their lives taking p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body by 2038? Under various definitions of spaceflight, it's commonly accepted that as of this writing, [19 humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) have lost their lives taking p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the logarithm of GWP will be 5.48 in 2100? While raw temperature anomaly projections usually capture most of the attention focused on global warming, these raw figures by themselves convey little information about the potential economic (or... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA will next land astronauts on the Moon by Jun 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA will next land astronauts on the Moon by Jun 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100 will be 1.88? Transient climate response (TCR) is a measure that is used in climate science to quantify the short-term impact of an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations on the climate system, particularly on the global mean ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the gross world product with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 22.9 in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 2.44 in 2100? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 2.44 in 2100? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the global mean temperature anomaly with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 2.44 in 2100? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that net U.S. geothermal electricity production will be 22.3k GWh in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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