text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that net U.S. geothermal electricity production will be 22.3k GWh in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that LeBron James will score 43.70k career points in the NBA regular season when he retires? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100 will be 1.88? Transient climate response (TCR) is a measure that is used in climate science to quantify the short-term impact of an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations on the climate system, particularly on the global mean ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the gross world product with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 22.9 in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the product of the gross world product with the IPCC's best estimate of TCR will be 22.9 in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that net U.S. geothermal electricity production will be 22.3k GWh in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Singapore's land area will be 848.7 square kilometers in 2070? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100 will be 1.88? Transient climate response (TCR) is a measure that is used in climate science to quantify the short-term impact of an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations on the climate system, particularly on the global mean ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that LeBron James will score 43.70k career points in the NBA regular season when he retires? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Singapore's land area will be 848.7 square kilometers in 2070? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Singapore's land area will be 848.7 square kilometers in 2070? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monetochka will perform in the US by Nov 2023? Monetochka (Монеточка) is the mononym used by [Liza Gyrdymova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetochka), a Russian singer-songwriter. Although popular in Russia, she is little-known in the west and has never toured or performed in the United States... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monetochka will perform in the US by Nov 2023? Monetochka (Монеточка) is the mononym used by [Liza Gyrdymova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetochka), a Russian singer-songwriter. Although popular in Russia, she is little-known in the west and has never toured or performed in the United States... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monetochka will perform in the US by Nov 2023? Monetochka (Монеточка) is the mononym used by [Liza Gyrdymova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetochka), a Russian singer-songwriter. Although popular in Russia, she is little-known in the west and has never toured or performed in the United States... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 200.4 UN member states in 2070? The [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) has [193 member states.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations) [South Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan) is the most recent member state, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will recognize Kosovo by 2088? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will recognize Kosovo by 2088? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Economist will rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index by 2063? Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated to below 4.01 in ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Economist will rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index by 2063? Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated to below 4.01 in ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will recognize Kosovo by 2088? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Morocco will recognize Western Sahara by 2118? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Morocco will recognize Western Sahara by 2118? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 200.4 UN member states in 2070? The [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) has [193 member states.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations) [South Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan) is the most recent member state, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Morocco will recognize Western Sahara by 2118? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 200.4 UN member states in 2070? The [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) has [193 member states.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations) [South Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan) is the most recent member state, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican by 2125? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the Democratic or Republican Party cease to exist?](https://redesign.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will recognize North Cyprus by 2114? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Economist will rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index by 2063? Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated to below 4.01 in ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican by 2125? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the Democratic or Republican Party cease to exist?](https://redesign.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will recognize North Cyprus by 2114? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will recognize North Cyprus by 2114? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican by 2125? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the Democratic or Republican Party cease to exist?](https://redesign.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 9.787 seconds? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's score in the Democracy Index will be 6.93 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's score in the Democracy Index will be 6.93 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 9.787 seconds? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 10.69 seconds? The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 10.69 seconds? The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's score in the Democracy Index will be 6.93 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 10.69 seconds? The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final will be 9.787 seconds? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belgium will no longer be a united sovereign state by Not ≤ 2120? [Belgium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium) is composed of 3 cultural regions: the predominately Dutch-speaking [Flemish region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_Region) in the north, the predominately French-speaking [W... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "Tesla Bots" will be available to US consumers by 2027? On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&ab_channel=Tesla) event, [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO Elon Musk [unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot,](https://www.theverge.c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belgium will no longer be a united sovereign state by Not ≤ 2120? [Belgium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium) is composed of 3 cultural regions: the predominately Dutch-speaking [Flemish region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_Region) in the north, the predominately French-speaking [W... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 446 millimeters of sea level rise in 2100? [Sea level rise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise) is one of the main effects associated with [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change). Some climatologists [have suggested](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belgium will no longer be a united sovereign state by Not ≤ 2120? [Belgium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium) is composed of 3 cultural regions: the predominately Dutch-speaking [Flemish region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_Region) in the north, the predominately French-speaking [W... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "Tesla Bots" will be available to US consumers by 2027? On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&ab_channel=Tesla) event, [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO Elon Musk [unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot,](https://www.theverge.c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 446 millimeters of sea level rise in 2100? [Sea level rise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise) is one of the main effects associated with [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change). Some climatologists [have suggested](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Mars helicopter Ingenuity will stop making successful flights for 6 months by Mar 16, 2024, if it is operational through January 1, 2022? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Mars helicopter Ingenuity will stop making successful flights for 6 months by Mar 16, 2024, if it is operational through January 1, 2022? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 446 millimeters of sea level rise in 2100? [Sea level rise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise) is one of the main effects associated with [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change). Some climatologists [have suggested](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "Tesla Bots" will be available to US consumers by 2027? On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&ab_channel=Tesla) event, [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO Elon Musk [unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot,](https://www.theverge.c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Mars helicopter Ingenuity will stop making successful flights for 6 months by Mar 16, 2024, if it is operational through January 1, 2022? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 661 ppm in 2100? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/)
* [How much greater (in ˚C) will the average... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 661 ppm in 2100? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/)
* [How much greater (in ˚C) will the average... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Mohammed bin Salman will become the king of Saudi Arabia by 2026? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/) The question will resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players by Apr 2026? [Angry Birds](http://chrome.angrybirds.com/) is a popular video game where the task is to shoot birds with different properties from a slingshot at a structure that houses pigs and to destroy ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Mohammed bin Salman will become the king of Saudi Arabia by 2026? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/) The question will resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 661 ppm in 2100? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/)
* [How much greater (in ˚C) will the average... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one offensive detonation of nuclear weapons will occur by 2050, given that 14.8 detonations are expected? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of Americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Mohammed bin Salman will become the king of Saudi Arabia by 2026? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/) The question will resol... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one offensive detonation of nuclear weapons will occur by 2050, given that 14.8 detonations are expected? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of Americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hungary's children per woman will be 1.83 in the year 2031? According to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=HU), Hungary's births per woman rate since 1960 peaked at 2.35 in 1975, and has remained under 1.60 since 1994. This question will resolve as Hu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hungary's children per woman will be 1.83 in the year 2031? According to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=HU), Hungary's births per woman rate since 1960 peaked at 2.35 in 1975, and has remained under 1.60 since 1994. This question will resolve as Hu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players by Apr 2026? [Angry Birds](http://chrome.angrybirds.com/) is a popular video game where the task is to shoot birds with different properties from a slingshot at a structure that houses pigs and to destroy ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one offensive detonation of nuclear weapons will occur by 2050, given that 14.8 detonations are expected? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of Americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players by Apr 2026? [Angry Birds](http://chrome.angrybirds.com/) is a popular video game where the task is to shoot birds with different properties from a slingshot at a structure that houses pigs and to destroy ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available in at least one large German city by 2026? Self-driving cars are on the way, but how soon? Germany is the most populous country in Europe and a large car market. It is also known for having very strict regulations on many things, thus potentially postponing a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Afghanistan will not allow same-sex marriage by 2100? The return of the Taliban is a serious threat to civil rights in Afghanistan, and LGBT+ people will be particularly at risk. However, the 21st Century has eighty years left to run. What will it hold for liberalism and human rights in Afghanis... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Afghanistan will not allow same-sex marriage by 2100? The return of the Taliban is a serious threat to civil rights in Afghanistan, and LGBT+ people will be particularly at risk. However, the 21st Century has eighty years left to run. What will it hold for liberalism and human rights in Afghanis... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Afghanistan will not allow same-sex marriage by 2100? The return of the Taliban is a serious threat to civil rights in Afghanistan, and LGBT+ people will be particularly at risk. However, the 21st Century has eighty years left to run. What will it hold for liberalism and human rights in Afghanis... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available in at least one large German city by 2026? Self-driving cars are on the way, but how soon? Germany is the most populous country in Europe and a large car market. It is also known for having very strict regulations on many things, thus potentially postponing a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism by 2043? An [overwhelming majority](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-tax/) of economists [endorse carbon pricing mechanisms]((https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-taxes-ii/)) as effective ways to [reduce the am... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hungary's children per woman will be 1.83 in the year 2031? According to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=HU), Hungary's births per woman rate since 1960 peaked at 2.35 in 1975, and has remained under 1.60 since 1994. This question will resolve as Hu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism by 2043? An [overwhelming majority](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-tax/) of economists [endorse carbon pricing mechanisms]((https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-taxes-ii/)) as effective ways to [reduce the am... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available in at least one large German city by 2026? Self-driving cars are on the way, but how soon? Germany is the most populous country in Europe and a large car market. It is also known for having very strict regulations on many things, thus potentially postponing a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will know whether the Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle is equal to the Theta function of the 7-cycle by 2113? Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarde... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP by 2097? The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomnes... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP by 2097? The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomnes... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will know whether the Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle is equal to the Theta function of the 7-cycle by 2113? Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarde... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism by 2043? An [overwhelming majority](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-tax/) of economists [endorse carbon pricing mechanisms]((https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-taxes-ii/)) as effective ways to [reduce the am... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will know whether the Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle is equal to the Theta function of the 7-cycle by 2113? Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarde... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by 2049? The [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Japan)), or LDP for short, is a conservative party in Japanese politics. Since its foundation in 1955, it has... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere by 2052? Public and private entities have been making advances in efforts to expand humanity's presence in space and establish colonies on other planets. Additionally, humans already have had an extended presence ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere by 2052? Public and private entities have been making advances in efforts to expand humanity's presence in space and establish colonies on other planets. Additionally, humans already have had an extended presence ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone will be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere by 2052? Public and private entities have been making advances in efforts to expand humanity's presence in space and establish colonies on other planets. Additionally, humans already have had an extended presence ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by 2049? The [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Japan)), or LDP for short, is a conservative party in Japanese politics. Since its foundation in 1955, it has... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by 2049? The [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Japan)), or LDP for short, is a conservative party in Japanese politics. Since its foundation in 1955, it has... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tether (USDT) breaks its peg with the U.S. dollar by June 1, 2025, with a 75% likelihood occurring in March 2025? So called stablecoins are pegged to fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar. Issuers of stablecoins operate therefore as unregulated quasi-money market funds (MMFs). In contrast to re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP by 2097? The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomnes... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that psilocybin will be legal for therapy in 4.50 of the 50 US states by December 31, 2025? Improving mental health seems like one of the most direct ways of
making people better off, and there appear to be many promising areas for reform — especially with regard to new [drug therapies](https://maps.... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will legalize same-sex marriage by 2033? [LGBT rights in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Israel) are considered to be advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East.
However, [marriage in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriage_in_Israel) is controll... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will legalize same-sex marriage by 2033? [LGBT rights in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Israel) are considered to be advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East.
However, [marriage in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriage_in_Israel) is controll... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Israel will legalize same-sex marriage by 2033? [LGBT rights in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Israel) are considered to be advanced relative to other countries in the Middle East.
However, [marriage in Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriage_in_Israel) is controll... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that psilocybin will be legal for therapy in 4.50 of the 50 US states by December 31, 2025? Improving mental health seems like one of the most direct ways of
making people better off, and there appear to be many promising areas for reform — especially with regard to new [drug therapies](https://maps.... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tether (USDT) breaks its peg with the U.S. dollar by June 1, 2025, with a 75% likelihood occurring in March 2025? So called stablecoins are pegged to fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar. Issuers of stablecoins operate therefore as unregulated quasi-money market funds (MMFs). In contrast to re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tether (USDT) breaks its peg with the U.S. dollar by June 1, 2025, with a 75% likelihood occurring in March 2025? So called stablecoins are pegged to fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar. Issuers of stablecoins operate therefore as unregulated quasi-money market funds (MMFs). In contrast to re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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