text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.72? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years will be 17.59? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.72? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years (2030) will be 17.87? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.72? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.26? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.26? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies will be less than 10−3 in the 2020's? 2021 has seen the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" missi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that psilocybin will be legal for therapy in 4.50 of the 50 US states by December 31, 2025? Improving mental health seems like one of the most direct ways of
making people better off, and there appear to be many promising areas for reform — especially with regard to new [drug therapies](https://maps.... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 2.26? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies will be less than 10−3 in the 2020's? 2021 has seen the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" missi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years will be 17.59? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years (2030) will be 17.87? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 14.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 14.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years (2030) will be 17.87? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years will be 17.59? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 14.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 75% of 14.44? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum A... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies will be less than 10−3 in the 2020's? 2021 has seen the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" missi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 75% of 14.44? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum A... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that terrorism will cause 25.0k deaths globally in 2025? The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (as of September 2021) was for 2019.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2025) will be 4.33? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that terrorism will cause 25.0k deaths globally in 2025? The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (as of September 2021) was for 2019.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2025) will be 4.33? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many emojis will there be in 2026, considering that there are currently 5.43k emojis? July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform.
Emojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2030) will be 2.33? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2025) will be 4.33? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will cease to be a Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon by 2031? Lebanon has an [informal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pact) which stipulates among other things that the President is always Maronit... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will cease to be a Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon by 2031? Lebanon has an [informal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pact) which stipulates among other things that the President is always Maronit... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many emojis will there be in 2026, considering that there are currently 5.43k emojis? July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform.
Emojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will cease to be a Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon by 2031? Lebanon has an [informal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pact) which stipulates among other things that the President is always Maronit... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years will be 75% of 14.44? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum A... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2030) will be 2.33? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years (2030) will be 2.33? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many emojis will there be in 2026, considering that there are currently 5.43k emojis? July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform.
Emojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that terrorism will cause 25.0k deaths globally in 2025? The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (as of September 2021) was for 2019.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.743? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/) to learn more.*
<br>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.743? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/) to learn more.*
<br>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.743? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/) to learn more.*
<br>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven lower bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.5027? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the full essay here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/).*
<br><br... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will be developed by May 2023 that yields approximately human-level output? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven lower bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.5027? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the full essay here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/).*
<br><br... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will be developed by May 2023 that yields approximately human-level output? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will give 4.45 billion USD in aid to Israel in 2030? The United States and Israel are [close](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations) [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_military_relations) [allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best proven lower bound on the infimum of S in 2120 will be 0.5027? *This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the full essay here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/).*
<br><br... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the WHO will announce the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by Aug 2028? On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization [announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the WHO will announce the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by Aug 2028? On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization [announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first FAAMG company will have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men by Not ≤ 2099? The San Francisco Chronicle [reports](https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/Silicon-Valley-pledged-to-become-more-diverse-A-16414178.php):
> With the industry having been a majority-white, majority-male sp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first FAAMG company will have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men by Not ≤ 2099? The San Francisco Chronicle [reports](https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/Silicon-Valley-pledged-to-become-more-diverse-A-16414178.php):
> With the industry having been a majority-white, majority-male sp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first FAAMG company will have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men by Not ≤ 2099? The San Francisco Chronicle [reports](https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/Silicon-Valley-pledged-to-become-more-diverse-A-16414178.php):
> With the industry having been a majority-white, majority-male sp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will be developed by May 2023 that yields approximately human-level output? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will achieve a perplexity score of 14.1 on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will give 4.45 billion USD in aid to Israel in 2030? The United States and Israel are [close](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations) [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_military_relations) [allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will give 4.45 billion USD in aid to Israel in 2030? The United States and Israel are [close](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations) [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_military_relations) [allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the WHO will announce the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by Aug 2028? On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization [announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will achieve a perplexity score of 14.1 on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a language model will achieve a perplexity score of 14.1 on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by 2046? In September 2021, the [Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced](https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-24) that Australia would scrap its existing contract for Attack-class submarines with France and inste... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved true by 2104? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbulence/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by 2046? In September 2021, the [Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced](https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-24) that Australia would scrap its existing contract for Attack-class submarines with France and inste... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by 2046? In September 2021, the [Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced](https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-24) that Australia would scrap its existing contract for Attack-class submarines with France and inste... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved true by 2104? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbulence/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved false before 2121? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbul... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved false before 2121? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbul... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved false before 2121? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbul... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system will be successfully returned to Earth by 2064? The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA's Europa Clipper will... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 74.0? [A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asks if Iran will get a nuclear weapon by 2030.
The World Bank [keeps track](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a probe will first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system by 2054? The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a probe will first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system by 2054? The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system will be successfully returned to Earth by 2064? The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA's Europa Clipper will... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a probe will first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system by 2054? The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 64.7? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/)
----
The World Bank [keeps track](htt... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 64.7? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/)
----
The World Bank [keeps track](htt... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 74.0? [A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asks if Iran will get a nuclear weapon by 2030.
The World Bank [keeps track](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 64.7? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/)
----
The World Bank [keeps track](htt... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture will be proved true by 2104? *This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbulence/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Palestinian election will be held in 2027? There have been three Palestinian elections so far. The first was the general election in [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Palestinian_general_election) and Yasser Arafat won with almost 90% of the vote. The second was the Presidenti... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what is the chance that Israel's 2031 GNI per capita will be 74.0? [A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asks if Iran will get a nuclear weapon by 2030.
The World Bank [keeps track](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Palestinian election will be held in 2027? There have been three Palestinian elections so far. The first was the general election in [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Palestinian_general_election) and Yasser Arafat won with almost 90% of the vote. The second was the Presidenti... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Palestinian election will be held in 2027? There have been three Palestinian elections so far. The first was the general election in [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Palestinian_general_election) and Yasser Arafat won with almost 90% of the vote. The second was the Presidenti... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best published polygenic score for intelligence will be 0.326 in 2026? Related questions:
- [When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/)
- [When will we ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system will be successfully returned to Earth by 2064? The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA's Europa Clipper will... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 34.9% of employed persons will work at home on an average day in 2030? Contemporary American society centers around place-based work. Cities like Detroit and New York were built on industry, with modern infrastructure set up to support commerce and expanding workforces. It's not a stretch to say... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best published polygenic score for intelligence will be 0.326 in 2026? Related questions:
- [When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/)
- [When will we ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k US Jews will move to Israel by 2050? The State of Israel defines itself as the Jewish homeland and [Israeli law makes citizenship available](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return) to anyone who can prove recent Jewish ancestry. [About 5,000 North American Jews were expected to emigra... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k US Jews will move to Israel by 2050? The State of Israel defines itself as the Jewish homeland and [Israeli law makes citizenship available](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return) to anyone who can prove recent Jewish ancestry. [About 5,000 North American Jews were expected to emigra... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US murder rate will be 4.18 in 2030? In 2018, the USA had a [murder rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) of 4.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. The United States experience a [surge in murder in 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/us/fbi-murders... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US murder rate will be 4.18 in 2030? In 2018, the USA had a [murder rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) of 4.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. The United States experience a [surge in murder in 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/us/fbi-murders... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US murder rate will be 4.18 in 2030? In 2018, the USA had a [murder rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) of 4.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. The United States experience a [surge in murder in 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/us/fbi-murders... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k US Jews will move to Israel by 2050? The State of Israel defines itself as the Jewish homeland and [Israeli law makes citizenship available](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return) to anyone who can prove recent Jewish ancestry. [About 5,000 North American Jews were expected to emigra... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best published polygenic score for intelligence will be 0.326 in 2026? Related questions:
- [When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/)
- [When will we ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak human population before 2100 will be 11.0 billion? The global human population has [grown continuously](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population) for centuries due to technological, agricultural, and health advancements. Population growth peaked in 1968 at an [annual growth rate o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 34.9% of employed persons will work at home on an average day in 2030? Contemporary American society centers around place-based work. Cities like Detroit and New York were built on industry, with modern infrastructure set up to support commerce and expanding workforces. It's not a stretch to say... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak human population before 2100 will be 11.0 billion? The global human population has [grown continuously](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population) for centuries due to technological, agricultural, and health advancements. Population growth peaked in 1968 at an [annual growth rate o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 34.9% of employed persons will work at home on an average day in 2030? Contemporary American society centers around place-based work. Cities like Detroit and New York were built on industry, with modern infrastructure set up to support commerce and expanding workforces. It's not a stretch to say... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any type of dog will have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more by 2098? While fighting diseases has long been a major end-goal in biological research, the pursuit of life extension in general has more recently been given serious attention and resources. To what degree will these effort... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak human population before 2100 will be 11.0 billion? The global human population has [grown continuously](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population) for centuries due to technological, agricultural, and health advancements. Population growth peaked in 1968 at an [annual growth rate o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a high frame rate film will be awarded an Academy Award by 2040? Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as [Youtube](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any type of dog will have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more by 2098? While fighting diseases has long been a major end-goal in biological research, the pursuit of life extension in general has more recently been given serious attention and resources. To what degree will these effort... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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