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What is the chance that the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049 will be 38.8? Labor force participation rate uses the definition described by the OECD: the labor force divided by the total working-age population, where the 'working age' population refers to people aged 15 to 64.
Many peo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any type of dog will have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more by 2098? While fighting diseases has long been a major end-goal in biological research, the pursuit of life extension in general has more recently been given serious attention and resources. To what degree will these effort... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049 will be 38.8? Labor force participation rate uses the definition described by the OECD: the labor force divided by the total working-age population, where the 'working age' population refers to people aged 15 to 64.
Many peo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049 will be 38.8? Labor force participation rate uses the definition described by the OECD: the labor force divided by the total working-age population, where the 'working age' population refers to people aged 15 to 64.
Many peo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a high frame rate film will be awarded an Academy Award by 2040? Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as [Youtube](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 256-bit ECC will become insecure by 2045? [Elliptic-curve cryptography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) is a public-key cryptography system which is based on the difficulty of solving the discrete logarithm problem over elliptic curves. Today it is used in many cryptog... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 256-bit ECC will become insecure by 2045? [Elliptic-curve cryptography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) is a public-key cryptography system which is based on the difficulty of solving the discrete logarithm problem over elliptic curves. Today it is used in many cryptog... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 256-bit ECC will become insecure by 2045? [Elliptic-curve cryptography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) is a public-key cryptography system which is based on the difficulty of solving the discrete logarithm problem over elliptic curves. Today it is used in many cryptog... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves by Apr 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a high frame rate film will be awarded an Academy Award by 2040? Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as [Youtube](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Elder Scrolls VI will be released by Oct 2027? [The Elder Scrolls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls) is a series of action role-playing video games primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in a d... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve will be set by 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Elder Scrolls VI will be released by Oct 2027? [The Elder Scrolls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls) is a series of action role-playing video games primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in a d... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve will be set by 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Elder Scrolls VI will be released by Oct 2027? [The Elder Scrolls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls) is a series of action role-playing video games primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in a d... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.1 countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01? Recently, El Salvador [became the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/el-salvador-buys-400-bitcoin-ahead-of-law-making-it-legal-currency.html) and Brazil is [considering following su... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves by Apr 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve will be set by 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.1 countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01? Recently, El Salvador [became the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/el-salvador-buys-400-bitcoin-ahead-of-law-making-it-legal-currency.html) and Brazil is [considering following su... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves by Apr 2029? The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.1 countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01? Recently, El Salvador [became the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/el-salvador-buys-400-bitcoin-ahead-of-law-making-it-legal-currency.html) and Brazil is [considering following su... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by 2052? In 1991, the [Republic of Somaliland](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state) broke away from the Somali Democratic Republic after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by 2052? In 1991, the [Republic of Somaliland](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state) broke away from the Somali Democratic Republic after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by 2052? In 1991, the [Republic of Somaliland](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state) broke away from the Somali Democratic Republic after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs, will be 869? For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs, will be 869? For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one HEMP attack will occur by 2030, given that 9.58 attacks are expected? According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):
>"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitud... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 25.9 million people living on Mars by 2050? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
----
[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 25.9 million people living on Mars by 2050? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
----
[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs, will be 869? For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 25.9 million people living on Mars by 2050? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
----
[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one HEMP attack will occur by 2030, given that 9.58 attacks are expected? According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):
>"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitud... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.057 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Green Party will have more than one Member of Parliament in UK Parliament by 2046? [The Green Party of England and Wales](https://vote.greenparty.org.uk/_) is a left of centre political party with a specific focus on environmentalism. According to [Politics.co.uk](https://www.politics.co.uk/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Green Party will have more than one Member of Parliament in UK Parliament by 2046? [The Green Party of England and Wales](https://vote.greenparty.org.uk/_) is a left of centre political party with a specific focus on environmentalism. According to [Politics.co.uk](https://www.politics.co.uk/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that The Green Party will have more than one Member of Parliament in UK Parliament by 2046? [The Green Party of England and Wales](https://vote.greenparty.org.uk/_) is a left of centre political party with a specific focus on environmentalism. According to [Politics.co.uk](https://www.politics.co.uk/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.057 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one HEMP attack will occur by 2030, given that 9.58 attacks are expected? According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):
>"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitud... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many career points will James Harden score in the NBA regular season when he retires?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that James Harden will score 28.2k career points in the NBA regular season when he retires? As of October 24, 2021, James Harden had scored a total of [22,114 points](https://www.nba.com/stat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the five-year relative survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients in the US will exceed 50% by 2050? Survival rates for pancreatic cancer, one of the more lethal cancer types, have begun to [increase substantially](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html). Five-year relative surviv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.057 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the rate of new pancreatic cancer cases in the US will be 16.3% in the year 2038? There are different metrics of progress in fighting cancer, and for some metrics it is not always clear which direction is good or bad. Survival rates for a cancer type can increase while the incidence of new case... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5 states will have ranked-choice voting for their US senators by 2028? Many see ranked-choice voting as a way to improve the democratic voting system, including by reducing polarization and helping third parties. Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank candidates in order of their preferences... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?
Keyword: 238k
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that entry level software engineers at Google will get paid 50% of the average salary in 2027 according to levels.fyi? Google is one of the largest tech... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the five-year relative survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients in the US will exceed 50% by 2050? Survival rates for pancreatic cancer, one of the more lethal cancer types, have begun to [increase substantially](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html). Five-year relative surviv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the rate of new pancreatic cancer cases in the US will be 16.3% in the year 2038? There are different metrics of progress in fighting cancer, and for some metrics it is not always clear which direction is good or bad. Survival rates for a cancer type can increase while the incidence of new case... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the rate of new pancreatic cancer cases in the US will be 16.3% in the year 2038? There are different metrics of progress in fighting cancer, and for some metrics it is not always clear which direction is good or bad. Survival rates for a cancer type can increase while the incidence of new case... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5 states will have ranked-choice voting for their US senators by 2028? Many see ranked-choice voting as a way to improve the democratic voting system, including by reducing polarization and helping third parties. Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank candidates in order of their preferences... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5 states will have ranked-choice voting for their US senators by 2028? Many see ranked-choice voting as a way to improve the democratic voting system, including by reducing polarization and helping third parties. Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank candidates in order of their preferences... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.80 percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031? Our World In Data [shows](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-share-energy) that solar energy has grown dramatically in the United States in recent years, growing from 0.89 TWh in 2009 to 132.63 TWh in 2019... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the five-year relative survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients in the US will exceed 50% by 2050? Survival rates for pancreatic cancer, one of the more lethal cancer types, have begun to [increase substantially](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html). Five-year relative surviv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Colorado River's average annual flow volume will be 11.5M from 2025-2050? Water scarcity is a [trending topic in mainstream media](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts.html) thanks to concerns mainly due to impending climate change. The Colorado River, the maj... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Colorado River's average annual flow volume will be 11.5M from 2025-2050? Water scarcity is a [trending topic in mainstream media](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts.html) thanks to concerns mainly due to impending climate change. The Colorado River, the maj... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that China will score 5.06 on the Human Freedom Index in 2030? From the [Washington Post](https://archive.md/Q208l),
> A dizzying regulatory crackdown unleashed by China's government has spared almost no sector over the pas... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.80 percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031? Our World In Data [shows](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-share-energy) that solar energy has grown dramatically in the United States in recent years, growing from 0.89 TWh in 2009 to 132.63 TWh in 2019... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.80 percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031? Our World In Data [shows](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-share-energy) that solar energy has grown dramatically in the United States in recent years, growing from 0.89 TWh in 2009 to 132.63 TWh in 2019... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Colorado River's average annual flow volume will be 11.5M from 2025-2050? Water scarcity is a [trending topic in mainstream media](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts.html) thanks to concerns mainly due to impending climate change. The Colorado River, the maj... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US labor force participation rate will fall below 10% by Not ≤ 2300? From [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp),
> The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy's active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US labor force participation rate will fall below 10% by Not ≤ 2300? From [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp),
> The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy's active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?
Keyword: 238k
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that entry level software engineers at Google will get paid 50% of the average salary in 2027 according to levels.fyi? Google is one of the largest tech... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US labor force participation rate will fall below 10% by Not ≤ 2300? From [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp),
> The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy's active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that China will score 5.06 on the Human Freedom Index in 2030? From the [Washington Post](https://archive.md/Q208l),
> A dizzying regulatory crackdown unleashed by China's government has spared almost no sector over the pas... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 dividend yield will be 1.70% in end-of-year 2031? The S&P 500 [dividend yield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield) is defined as the sum of the most recent full year dividend paid by all companies in the S&P 500 divided by the current S&P 500 share price, both calculated ac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 dividend yield will be 1.70% in end-of-year 2031? The S&P 500 [dividend yield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield) is defined as the sum of the most recent full year dividend paid by all companies in the S&P 500 divided by the current S&P 500 share price, both calculated ac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will reach 11.3% after the next market crash happens? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will reach 11.3% after the next market crash happens? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will be 7.28% after the next volatile market episode? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will reach 11.3% after the next market crash happens? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act before 2070? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P 500 dividend yield will be 1.70% in end-of-year 2031? The S&P 500 [dividend yield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield) is defined as the sum of the most recent full year dividend paid by all companies in the S&P 500 divided by the current S&P 500 share price, both calculated ac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act before 2070? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will be 7.28% after the next volatile market episode? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act before 2070? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peter Thiel's net worth will be 11.6 billion dollars in January 2030? [Peter Andreas Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), born 11 October 1967, is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist. A co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US unemployment rate will be 7.28% after the next volatile market episode? The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?
Keyword: 238k
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that entry level software engineers at Google will get paid 50% of the average salary in 2027 according to levels.fyi? Google is one of the largest tech... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peter Thiel's net worth will be 11.6 billion dollars in January 2030? [Peter Andreas Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), born 11 October 1967, is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist. A co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.74 Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? Earlier this year, in the comment section of a [question about the price of Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/qu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peter Thiel's net worth will be 11.6 billion dollars in January 2030? [Peter Andreas Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), born 11 October 1967, is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist. A co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.3% of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050? Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about electric cars in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)
>Entertainment systems will be m... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.74 Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? Earlier this year, in the comment section of a [question about the price of Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/qu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 37.6% of US children will be living with a single parent in 2050? Data shows that the share of children living with a single parent in the United States has increased substantially since 1968, from [13% in 1968 to 25% in 2017](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/27/about-one-third-of-u... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the top marginal federal income tax rate in the USA will be 37.0% by 2030? The top marginal federal income tax rate is a topic of continued debate. In general, Republicans will try to lower this value and Democrats will raise it. Historically, it has fluctuated wildly, [even reaching 94% at the... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the top marginal federal income tax rate in the USA will be 37.0% by 2030? The top marginal federal income tax rate is a topic of continued debate. In general, Republicans will try to lower this value and Democrats will raise it. Historically, it has fluctuated wildly, [even reaching 94% at the... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 37.6% of US children will be living with a single parent in 2050? Data shows that the share of children living with a single parent in the United States has increased substantially since 1968, from [13% in 1968 to 25% in 2017](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/27/about-one-third-of-u... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the top marginal federal income tax rate in the USA will be 37.0% by 2030? The top marginal federal income tax rate is a topic of continued debate. In general, Republicans will try to lower this value and Democrats will raise it. Historically, it has fluctuated wildly, [even reaching 94% at the... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 20.5k nuclear weapons globally in 2050? According to the Federation of American Scientists there were [13,150 nuclear warheads in existence in 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)\*. This number includes retired warheads. [Nuclear stockpiles](... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.3% of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050? Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about electric cars in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)
>Entertainment systems will be m... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.3% of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050? Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about electric cars in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)
>Entertainment systems will be m... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be a trillion-dollar company by 2038? SpaceX is among the highest-valued privately held companies in the world. As of October, 2021, the company's [published valuation](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-100-billion.html) was 100.3 billion nominal US Dollars.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 20.5k nuclear weapons globally in 2050? According to the Federation of American Scientists there were [13,150 nuclear warheads in existence in 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)\*. This number includes retired warheads. [Nuclear stockpiles](... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be a trillion-dollar company by 2038? SpaceX is among the highest-valued privately held companies in the world. As of October, 2021, the company's [published valuation](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-100-billion.html) was 100.3 billion nominal US Dollars.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 20.5k nuclear weapons globally in 2050? According to the Federation of American Scientists there were [13,150 nuclear warheads in existence in 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)\*. This number includes retired warheads. [Nuclear stockpiles](... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.5 cities in China will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.009 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). Seve... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.009 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). Seve... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 26.1 cities in the United States will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at leas... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.5 cities in China will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 26.1 cities in the United States will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at leas... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.5 cities in China will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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