text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will any of the BRICS countries actually adopt a gold standard by 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 50+ points before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will we have high-quality real-time age transitions for video calls before 2026 ends? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️ | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the ECB adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
How many candidates will run in the Republican primary in 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will research show that crime has increased by 2045 due to abortion restrictions passed in 2021-2022? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 12 weeks before mid 2024 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 4 weeks before mid 2024 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 6 weeks before mid 2024 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 1 week before mid 2024 | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Manifold do a Rationalussy-themed April Fools joke in 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Would Desantis let AI wipe out humanity? (2030) | 0.14 | Manifold |
Would Trump let AI wipe out humanity? (2030) | 0.17 | Manifold |
Would Biden let AI wipe out humanity? (2030) | 0.15 | Manifold |
US President TV orgasm market > 7% for more than 72 hours before 2030 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will factory farming have been outlawed in at least one country by 2050? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humans by 2025? (read desc.) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Telegram still provide unlimited file storage in 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will there be a high-speed rail line in Texas before 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
MLB games are available in VR before 2027 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Meta launch a competitor to Reddit by the end of June 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Anduril has a valuation over 20b before 2030 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Palmer Luckey leaves Anduril before 2030 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Anduril goes public before 2031 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the remains of Ethiopian Prince Dejatch Alemayehu be repatriated by the United Kingdom until Nov 14, 2029? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections? | 0.41 | Manifold |
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any of the countries that currently don't allow dual citizenship legalise dual citizenship by end of 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will any country newly abolish marriage as a privileged class before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will at least one visitor to the 2024 Paris Olympics be killed violently during the event? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will India pass a (new) judicial reform before May 16th, 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI "lost manuscript" hoax by the end of 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
By the end of 2025, will the US praise China's efforts to combat the fentanyl crisis? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Ukraine will be given/sold 20 or more F16s before 2024 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's Twitter account have 4000 followers by Sept. 1st? | 0.76 | Manifold |
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, will he lose the popular vote by >5 million votes? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will any member of Joe Biden's family be indicted for bribery and payoffs from foreign governments by 12/31/2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
US 10-year treasury trades above 7% before 2026 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen play in 2024 Candidates Tournament? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a second member state leave the European Union by 2035? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will xQc gamble on Stake on his Kick stream before 2024 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will we have at least one Dyson sphere by 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the UK have a millennial Prime Minister before 2033? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Meta's Threads have community boards/spaces/groups/segments/subs by 2025? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Meta's Threads have community mods by 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Meta's Threads have a karma system similar to reddit by 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
By 2026, will a neuroimaging study provide explicit support to symmetry theory of valence? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
A French President will trigger Article 16 of the French Constitution (giving him exceptional powers) before 2030. | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be any text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs won't? By the end of 2024 | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will brightline announce any new rail plans outside of Florida by July 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will No Labels run a third-party candidate for president in 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Gulf of Aqaba between the Egypt and Saudi Arabia have started construction by 2035? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 15% or 25% in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will human teleportation have mostly replaced commercial airplanes by 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will we have time travel by 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will any US state change borders before 2025 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Meta's Threads have an AI chatbot by 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Leonardo DiCaprio appear in a Star Wars movie before 2032 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Leonardo DiCaprio appear in a Star Trek movie before 2032 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will it be proven that nxn magic squares of distinct squares exist for all n sufficiently large by end of 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will solar fired bricks/blocks/tiles be commercially available by july 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027? | 0.77 | Manifold |
By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Brian Kemp change his mind and enter the 2024 GOP race? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a dam failure cause an evacuation in California by 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a tunnel across the Bohai Strait between Shandong and Liaoning in China have started construction by 2035? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will a tunnel between Finland and Estonia have started construction by 2035? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Cook Strait, between New Zealand's North and South Islands, have started construction by 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
(dupe) Will Microsoft aquire Canonical before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Microsoft aquire Canonical before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Before 2030, Toyota will be selling cars with solid-state batteries with a >=1000km range chargeable in under 15 minutes | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Connor Leahy for the Lex Fridman Podcast before the end of 2025? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
[French Riots] Will more than 5000 people be arrested before Aug 1? | 0 | Manifold |
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
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