text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the Coming of the Great White Handkerchief wipe up humanity by 2100? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Fernando Haddad be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Manifold by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc) | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out patriarchy before the year 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will AOC run for president in 2028? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will this market get 1 trader by 4001? | 1 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Bananas before the year 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Raccoons before the year 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Tomatoes before the year 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out Shrimp before the year 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030 | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will South B street in downtown San Mateo still be pedestrian only 24 hours/day through 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Elon Musk builds land vehicles for the US Military before 2032 | 0.56 | Manifold |
MLB unifies the American and National leagues and there are no separate leagues anymore before 2031 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Tesla Cybertruck will be in the top 25 selling car models for 2025 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Tesla Cybertruck will be in the top 25 selling car models for 2024 | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Java and Bali have started construction by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Sumatra and Java have started construction by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Malaysia and Sumatra have started construction by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Singapore and Riau Islands in Indonesia have started construction by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Orkney islands not be part of Scotland before 2031? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Leyte and Mindanao in the Philippines have started construction by 2035? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will a crossing between Luzon and Samar in the Philippines have started construction by 2035? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a tunnel between China and Taiwan have started construction by 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a bridge between Xiamen (PRC) and Kinmen (ROC) have started construction by 2035? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Qiongzhou Strait, between Mainland China and Hainan, have started construction by 2035? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Palk Strait, between India and Sri Lanka, have started construction by 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Irish Sea, between Great Britain and Ireland, have started construction by 2035? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will USD/RUB exchange rate reach an all-time high before the end of 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the US Government declare a new federal holiday before 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Meta's Threads have more than 100M monthly active users by the end of 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Eigenrobot join Manifold before 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2035? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the first openly LGBTQIA+ SCOTUS Justice be appointed before 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will any college be found using affirmative action (after the ruling banning it) before 2025? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will AI win an episode of wipeout by 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will cattle be wiped out before the year 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Steve Cohen still own the Mets on July 1 2029? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Buck Showalter start the 2024 season as Mets manager? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out by 2030? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out the global population of trout by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Enhanced Games happen before 2028? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out cows before the year 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will rapper Tekashi69 be alive by the end of 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Ed Balls tweet his own name on Ed Balls Day 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will a non-USA citizen win the NBA MVP 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the GPT architecture be replaced by another, more efficient architecture by the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be a Team Fortress 2 sequel or spin-off game released or announced before September 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will direct arbitrage between manifold markets and the US stock market be possible by July 2024 (Subsidized 250M) | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK by 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will RFK Jr. endorse the GOP nominee during a prime time speaking slot at the 2024 RNC? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will at least 3 US presidential debates occur in the 2024 election | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election be a first-time presidential contender? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will France have a civil war by 2050? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will humanity still exist in 2100? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2040? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Stephenie Meyer remove The Truth Untold from the official Midnight Sun playlist by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the GDP per capita of Ghana be over $5000 by the end of 2026 (current $US) | 0.31 | Manifold |
Elon & Aella have a child together by 2025 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will wind power account for more than 25% of the EU’s electricity production by 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Epic increase Unreal Engine's "Standard" license pricing at any point before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will legacy admissions be abolished at any Ivy League college before 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
By the end of 2025, will WGA writers be widely agreed to have worse job prospects/compensation due to AI screenwriting? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive in 2100? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.