text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.93×1036 by the year 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.6 countries will have AAA-rated sovereign debt according to S&P in 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.32×1013? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
Keyword: 1.26
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
Keyword: 1.26
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
Keyword: 1.26
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025)
Keyword: 12.0
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025)
Keyword: 12.0
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025)
Keyword: 12.0
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the population of Africa will be 1.722k in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the population of Africa will be 1.722k in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Starship will launch into orbit by Aug 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 243 before the year 2050? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 243 before the year 2050? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Starship will launch into orbit by Aug 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 286 before the year 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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