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What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.93×1036 by the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 10.6 countries will have AAA-rated sovereign debt according to S&P in 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.32×1013?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 236 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 103 in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? Keyword: 1.26 Percentage: 75% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? Keyword: 1.26 Percentage: 75% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 113 in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 107 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 67.4 in the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease will be 58.3 in the year 2122?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.79% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? Keyword: 1.26 Percentage: 75% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 1.26 Falcon 9 failures before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 90.6% of the world population will use the internet by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 69.7% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2032)?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 99.06% of the world population will use the internet in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 12.57 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025) Keyword: 12.0 Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025)
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025) Keyword: 12.0 Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025)
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 74.94% of the world population will use the internet in the following years (2025)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2025) Keyword: 12.0 Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 12.0 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years? (2025)
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 269 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years (2052)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 225 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 13.1 active United Nations peacekeeping missions in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Armenia–Turkey border will reopen by Jan 2025?
0.5
Metaculus
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year?
0.5
Metaculus
How many spacecraft are expected to land on the moon from 2022 through 2025, given that 4.64 spacecraft land on the moon per year?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B?
0.25
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 31.2B by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Wikipedia will report Russia having procured 36.6 Su-57 fighter jets before 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the given years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Meta's yearly spending on Reality Labs will be 8.08B in 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.2 months in prison before 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the population of Africa will be 1.722k in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 271 before the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the population of Africa will be 1.722k in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Starship will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 243 before the year 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 243 before the year 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Starship will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data?
0.5
Metaculus
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data?
0.5
Metaculus
How many North Atlantic hurricanes are expected to occur in the following years, based on historical data?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the vehicles will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 286 before the year 2030?
0.75
Metaculus