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What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 286 before the year 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 243 before the year 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 286 before the year 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the population of Africa will be 1.722k in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Starship will launch into orbit by Aug 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the New Glenn vehicle will launch into orbit by Apr 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Ariane 6 will launch into orbit by Oct 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the New Glenn vehicle will launch into orbit by Apr 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Ariane 6 will launch into orbit by Oct 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the New Glenn vehicle will launch into orbit by Apr 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Neutron vehicle will launch into orbit by Aug 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Neutron vehicle will launch into orbit by Aug 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Terran R vehicle will not launch into orbit before January 1, 2026?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Terran R vehicle will not launch into orbit before January 1, 2026?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Ariane 6 will launch into orbit by Oct 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Terran R vehicle will not launch into orbit before January 1, 2026?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Neutron vehicle will launch into orbit by Aug 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 42.8% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 42.8% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 81.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 42.8% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 81.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 49.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the space agencies will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that ESA will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that JAXA will launch a crewed mission by Dec 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 81.3% of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that ISRO will launch a crewed mission by Sep 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that JAXA will launch a crewed mission by Dec 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that ESA will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the space agencies will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that ESA will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that ISRO will launch a crewed mission by Sep 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the space agencies will launch a crewed mission by Jun 2029?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that JAXA will launch a crewed mission by Dec 2031?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that ISRO will launch a crewed mission by Sep 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 104 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 502 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be $54.1M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 502 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 2.83k private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative total of 502 private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be $54.1M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 2.83k private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a cumulative of 2.83k private citizens visiting space for the first time by 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2030 will be 24.4M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be $54.1M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be 54.1M in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2035 will be 2.12M?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be 54.1M in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Lunar Gateway will be first occupied by a crew by Jul 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.28 spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.28 spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2035 will be 2.12M?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Lunar Gateway will be first occupied by a crew by Jul 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2030 will be 24.4M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 2.27B petaFLOPs will be used to train GPT-4 if it is announced before 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.19 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 2.27B petaFLOPs will be used to train GPT-4 if it is announced before 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.19 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.19 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 2.27B petaFLOPs will be used to train GPT-4 if it is announced before 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 22.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Lunar Gateway will be first occupied by a crew by Jul 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 22.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.28 spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen will be 54.1M in 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2035 will be 2.12M?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 50.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Germany will legalize cannabis for recreational use by 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 49.0?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 50.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Germany will legalize cannabis for recreational use by 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 22.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen in 2030 will be 24.4M?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 50.3 spacecraft will land on the moon in 2035?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 49.0?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 49.0?
0.75
Metaculus
What will be the chance that 49.0 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Small-lift)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 57.8?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Germany will legalize cannabis for recreational use by 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What will be the chance that 12.30 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Super heavy-lift)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 10.9?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 57.8?
0.75
Metaculus
What will be the chance that 49.0 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Small-lift)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 10.9?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 57.8?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a single booster or other rocket stage will have a maximum of 9.01 on-Earth reuses in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What will be the chance that 12.30 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Super heavy-lift)?
0.5
Metaculus
What will be the chance that 49.0 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Small-lift)?
0.75
Metaculus