text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the US recognize another genocide before 2029? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will pole dancing be recognized as an Olympic sport before 2033? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Putin voluntarily resign from role of Russia's leader before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Does sentience require something more than just compute? (resolves based on 2100 consensus) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a (new) technocratic government emerge by 2050? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Japan have a bigger population than Russia in 2050? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Peru bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Peru bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Peru bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Brazil bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Brazil bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Brazil bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Argentina bring a new fighter jet into service by the end of 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will BSP9000 win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market) | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a $100,000 "Rootclaim Challenge" debate between BSP9000 and Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19 go ahead in 2023? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025 | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Mexico bring a new fighter jet into service by the end of 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Mexico bring a new fighter jet into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Canada bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Canada bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be a new CRT or CRT-like display for retro gaming manufactured before the end of 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will the US Dollar still be the most prominent currency by the end of 2025? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Spa Remain on the Formula 1 Calendar in the 2024 season? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov publicly speaks out against Putin by name before 2025 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Harvard list "white" in its ethnicity page for the admitted class of 2028? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a major news organization report that Justice Alito (his staff) leaked the Dobbs Decision before 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Oceania before 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the UN create a social media network by 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Asia before 2030? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Africa before 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Europe before 2030? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in the Americas before 2030? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Revenue be above $3000 for the month of July? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Revenue be above $5000 for the month of July? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Revenue be above $4000 for the month of July? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before July 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Tesla releases FSD 12 in 2024 | 0.78 | Manifold |
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot before 2026 | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Disney announce a live-action remake of Zootopia by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a Canadian set foot on the moon before 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 20+ operational stations before 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Greece bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Greece bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Poland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Poland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Norway bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Norway bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Finland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Finland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will NATO deploy nuclear weapons to Poland before 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Texas, North Carolina, and Alaska in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.16 | Manifold |
[SCOTUS] Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by EOY 2026 | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Coke Zero use sucralose by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Inflection AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will my “Trader Bonuses” for Leagues S2 be M3000 or above when leagues closes? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the Biden administration’s plan to use the Higher Education Act result in student debt relief before 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will my "Trader Bonuses" for Leagues S2 be Ṁ2500 or above at league close time? | 1 | Manifold |
Will any UN country change its official name before the year 2030? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will there be 1 billion bipedal robots by the end of 2048? | 0.43 | Manifold |
If the Enhanced Games happen before 2025, will any world record be beaten? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will any UN country change its capital city before the year 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will any UN country change its national anthem before the year 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will any UN country change its national coat of arms or emblem before the year 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will any UN country change its national flag before the year 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Yevgeny Prigozhin before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Hong Kong be put on the EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes (aka EU blacklist) by EOY 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Twitter do a visual redesign before the end of 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Reddit fix the new reddit.com layout to be usable in my opinion before the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will old.reddit.com be generally available at the end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Spain bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Spain bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Spain bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Spain bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Spain bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Germany bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Germany bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
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