text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will France bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will France bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Sweden bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Sweden bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Sweden bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Sweden bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Sweden bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Italy bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Italy bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the UK bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the UK bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be 1 million bipedal robots by 2033? | 0.53 | Manifold |
What % Asian will the Harvard class of 2028 be? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Enhanced Games in 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the Harvard class of 2028 have <15% African American students? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will there be another perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball by the end of the 2024 season? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will lattice confinement fusion ever generate net energy before 2100? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will NASA establish large-scale lunar regolith mining on the moon by 2032? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is More than 63% White by 2028? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will at least one U.S. State or the Federal Government mandate converting road signs to the metric system before 2035? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will an "enhanced" athlete break Usain Bolt's 100m dash record in 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will BTC dominance go above 60% before 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will AirBnB colapse before 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
By 2026, will there be a publicly reported instance of a AI social media algorithm displaying power-seeking behaviors? | 0.2 | Manifold |
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? | 0.3 | Manifold |
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Paying Customer Killed on Virgin Galatic Flight Before 2041? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will we be able to estimate the feature importance curve or feature sparsity curve of real models? (2024 end) | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is More than 35% Asian by 2028? | 0.62 | Manifold |
What fraction of the Harvard class of 2028 will be black? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the Harvard class of 2028 be >50% Asian? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. be at war against Mexico by 2027 year end? | 0.04 | Manifold |
If Kennedy runs as an independent against Donald Trump and Joe Biden, will he become president in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will China win the most gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Prigozhin become leader of Belarus by 2026? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan abandon the use of the ROC/Minguo Calendar for all official uses before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will we replace the calendar by end of 2080? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) be integrated in common technology devices by 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Conditional on regime change in Russia, will Putin be executed or assassinated before 2034? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will there be a Jesus AI startup worth $20+ million by 2026 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a publisher release a novel advertised as being AI-generated in the style of very popular dead author, b4 EOY 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a record label release a song with an AI-generated voice of a dead billboard top 100 all time artist, b4 EOY 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will deleted accounts still be able to create markets in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will we know the neutrino mass ordering in 2035? | 0.73 | Manifold |
What will be the price of SPY ($) at the end of 2026 (0.1x) | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will sales of new gas-powered leaf blowers be banned in the United States by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Passable sex robots before 2050? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Sovereign Citizen legal maneuvers successful in court before 2025 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before Q2 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason by the end of 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will there be a credible threat of a dirty bomb being detonated by 2028? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a dirty bomb be used in an attack before 2028? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will anyone deliver 1MW of fusion-generated net electricity to anyone before 3000? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will anyone deliver 1MW of fusion-generated net electricity to anyone before 2100? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Android assistant which can answer repetitive questions for me on the phone, available free before 2025 | 0.3 | Manifold |
How many USNC micro-modular reactors will be in operation in 2030? (x5) | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Drive through bars available in a US state before 2034 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add a translate button to markets by July 1, 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2026? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Korean reunification be complete by 2060? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2026? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Roblox be acquired before 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Roblox have a new CEO before 2031? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a USA citizen win the NBA MVP 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will commercial AI tutoring services become prevalent in the US by 2025? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Prigozhin run as a candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will another recreational expedition to the Titanic take place before 2026? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will over a billion people worldwide be living with diabetes by 2050? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will @QiaochuYuan consider qualia a coherent concept by 2024 | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will communications transmission tech based on quantum entanglement exist and be in use before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will cryonics be noticeably more prominent in the public consciousness in August 2025 than it is now? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Conditional on a pandemic wiping out humanity by 2100, will it be natural or man-made? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a terrestrial natural disaster not caused by anthropogenic climate change wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.06 | Manifold |
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