text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a supernatural event wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be a cybersecurity event affecting US infrastructure and dealing more than $20 million in damage by 2025 | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a projective plane of non-prime-power order be discovered before 2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be a major competitor to Kubernetes with at least 20% market share by 2026? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will any one non-FB text-first social platform, post fewer links to Twitter than Twitter posts to it, from 2024 - 2029? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Prigozhin moves to Belarus and stays through 2024 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the Wagner Chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin still be alive by the end of 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the Russian invasion be over by 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a reputable report estimate that 25% or more of US adolescents suffer from depression by 2027? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
By EOY 2024, will it be known that someone tried to poison Yevgeny Prigozhin? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Prigozhin dies in Belarus through 2024 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an earthquake with a Modified Mercalli of VIII or greater strike the San Francisco Bay Area by November 1, 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will anyone prompt a GPT model to play "Colossal Cave Adventure" well by the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will General Relativity be overturned as our best understanding of large-scale physics before the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will there be a Moon base by 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will an astronomical event (e.g., asteroid impact) wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a pandemic wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the great Ukranian army march over Moscow by 2024 year end? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Japan regain control over some or all of the contested Kuril islands by 2028? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Meta release Voicebox to the general public before 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys employee, on my shares of the company by 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
If Trump is elected in 2024, will he be impeached again? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will AGI be created before the beginning of 2050? (Definition: Autonomous system surpassing majority of economic tasks) | 0.83 | Manifold |
SpaceX has an IPO before 2029 | 0.37 | Manifold |
SpaceX has an IPO before 2025 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will PCC have infiltrated the Brazilian Judiciary before 2033? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will the PLA or NATO intervine militarily in Russia to keep the current status quo by June 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to read minds by 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Biden have another televised fall before the 2024 presidential election? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will 2024 be Boston's warmest year? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader be in prison by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group still be alive by the end of 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the Wagner Group actually start a coup by the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be a coup attempt in Russia by the end of 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap by the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Clone of Elon Musk mentioned in major newspaper before 2034 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against World Champion by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against GM by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will any OpenAI model win a chess match against IM by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will an Al run for President by 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will an Al have been elected to the US Senate by 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will an Al have been elected to the House of Representatives by 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Neil deGrasse Tyson become vegan before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
If Gavin Newsom runs in the Democratic Primary in 2024, will he be the Democratic nominee? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Elon Musk and Biden in a photo together before 2026 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will there be a Malcolm in the Middle revival before 2026? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Airbnb (if only quietly) reinstate Product Managers as a distinct role by Q2 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will new Semi trucks come standard with automatic emergency braking (AEB) by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Bulgaria agree to give or sell one of its nuclear reactors to Ukraine before the end of 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will USDT de-peg to less than 0.9 USD (90 cents) before 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will USDT de-peg to less than 0.7 USD (70 cents) before 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will France have a bigger population than Germany in 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the Bank of England base rate reach 7.5% in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
In 2030 can you get a chain of 3 neural nets that jailbreak eachother? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the Bank of England base rate reach 6% by 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Between 2030 and 2035 there will be evidence of different models of neural network collaborating better with eachother | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a fight between Musk and Zuckerberg in which grappling is legal before 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
The top 3 Neural Nets in 2035 be able to be jailbroken to follow illegal commands | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a fully autonomous car be able to drive in Mumbai in 2040? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Germany have a greater GDP than Japan in 2033? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will the gold spot price close above $3,000 before the end of 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Violin playing robot by 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will someone figure out how to train decent Stable diffusion models for <$10K USD? (2024 end) | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Reddit/Twitter/Facebook/(major social media) deploy automated spies for the underbelly of the world? (by 2024 end) | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Connor Leahy go on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Nature's latest "phrenology but this time with AI" paper get retracted before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2029? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Prometheum deliver a usable product by 2030 as determined by Crypto Twitter consensus? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Joe Rogan stay bald till 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
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