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Will Tim Sweeney leave his position as CEO at Epic Games for any reason before 2030?
0.59
Manifold
Should a programmer in 2027 learn to touch type on a keyboard?
0.79
Manifold
Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?
0.77
Manifold
Will the share of electricity production in The Netherlands from solar exceed 25% in 2030?
0.83
Manifold
Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?
0.79
Manifold
Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party before 2025?
0.2
Manifold
TRUMP: Convicted, Republican Nominee, Election Winner, Inaugurated, No Tweets, Dies (all before 2028)
0.11
Manifold
Will Remco Evenepoel ride for Ineos Grenadiers in 2024?
0.28
Manifold
Will Remco Evenepoel ride for Soudal–Quick-Step in 2024?
0.57
Manifold
Will Joe Manchin run for President in 2024 as a Third-Party or Independent Candidate?
0.17
Manifold
Will Italy qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro?
0.77
Manifold
Will Primož Roglič ride for Team Bahrain Victorious in 2024?
0.09
Manifold
Will Poland qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro?
0.56
Manifold
Will Primož Roglič ride for Ineos Grenadiers in 2024?
0.14
Manifold
Will Primož Roglič ride for Team Jumbo–Visma in 2024?
0.74
Manifold
Will Hindenburg Research release at least one stock short report in 2030?
0.59
Manifold
Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?
0.52
Manifold
Will lighter than air airships transport >1M passengers total before 2050?
0.51
Manifold
Will lighter than air airships transport >1M passengers total before 2045?
0.37
Manifold
Will lighter than air airships transport >1M passengers total before 2040?
0.34
Manifold
Will lighter than air airships transport >1M passengers total before 2035?
0.27
Manifold
By the end of 2024, will an Italian politician be accused of accepting bribes in stablecoins or other cryptocurrencies?
0.71
Manifold
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 2025?
0.88
Manifold
Will bitcoin be above $90k on 2031-09-27?
0.57
Manifold
Will more than 100 new passenger lighter than air airships enter service before 2050?
0.41
Manifold
Will a regularly operated lighter than air passenger line open before 2030?
0.41
Manifold
Will more than 100 new large lighter than air airships enter service before 2050?
0.51
Manifold
Will more than 50 new large lighter than air airships enter service before 2030?
0.32
Manifold
Will Netflix release at least 30min of video about the Oceangate Titan submersible disappearance before 2030?
0.86
Manifold
Will an impeachment or criminal conviction disqualify Trump from running in the 2024 presidential elections?
0.31
Manifold
Will UAP have more searches than AGI at the end of June 2024?
0.57
Manifold
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be released in 2024?
0.66
Manifold
Will Metroid Prime 4 release before 2024?
0.41
Manifold
Will Metroid Prime 4 release before 2025?
0.63
Manifold
Will there be a new iPhone SE announced by end of June 2024?
0.45
Manifold
BJP to win the 2024 Elections with a majority?
0.82
Manifold
Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?
0.46
Manifold
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️
0.25
Manifold
Greater than 54k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.28
Manifold
Will the Bank of England base rate be 4% or lower anytime in 2024?
0.33
Manifold
Greater than 45k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.45
Manifold
Human whole brain emulation before 2100?
0.52
Manifold
How big will the Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia in 2026-2028 be?
0.59
Manifold
Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?
0.52
Manifold
Will AI be able to illustrate a short story at human level before 2025?
0.51
Manifold
Will there be a public company with at most one human employee before 2030?
0.14
Manifold
Will language models, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2025
0.62
Manifold
Will OceanSky Cruises perform a commercial flight in 2026?
0.41
Manifold
Will OceanSky Cruises perform a commercial flight in 2025?
0.31
Manifold
Will OceanSky Cruises perform a commercial flight in 2024?
0.22
Manifold
Will Oceangate cease to operate before 2026?
0.94
Manifold
Will anybody face a criminal conviction as a result of the Oceangate submersible incident by 2030?
0.28
Manifold
Will anybody face criminal charges as a result of the Oceangate submersible incident by 2030?
0.57
Manifold
By 2030, will any main-series Pokémon game have a map at least as large as BOTW's?
0.59
Manifold
Will Manifold require user's to provide their age or credit card by 2025?
0.12
Manifold
Will CyberPunk 2077 Phantom Liberty have bugs to the point that it's almost unplayable for the first month?
0.11
Manifold
Will 1+1 still be equal to 2 on Dec. 31, 9999?
0.95
Manifold
Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?
0.06
Manifold
Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 before the end of 2024?
0.64
Manifold
Will Europa Universalis V release before 2025?
0.45
Manifold
Will regularly-scheduled supersonic flights operate between Los Angeles and Tokyo in 2050?
0.45
Manifold
Will Guyana suffer from the oil curse by 2035?
0.6
Manifold
Fewer than 40k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.77
Manifold
Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by 2025?
0.39
Manifold
Will Biden public announce aliens are on earth by 2024?
0.04
Manifold
Will Tarcísio de Freitas be in the top 2 most voted Brazilian presidential candidates in 2026?
0.41
Manifold
By 2050, will SCOTUS declare the current civil asset forfeiture system unconstitutional?
0.81
Manifold
By 2100, will SCOTUS invalidate most plea bargains as contracts signed under duress?
0.03
Manifold
Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2040?
0.3
Manifold
Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?
0.11
Manifold
Will someone with a fields medal make a Manifold market by end of 2024?
0.2
Manifold
Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?
0.49
Manifold
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
0.12
Manifold
Fewer than 2k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.2
Manifold
Fewer than 5k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.26
Manifold
Fewer than 10k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
0.52
Manifold
Will Elon Musk become twice as wealthy as both Jeff Bezos and 4th place in Forbes real time billionaires List before2029
0.51
Manifold
Will at least 50 delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?
0.35
Manifold
Will a sorting algorithm faster than n*log(n) be found before 2030?
0.15
Manifold
Will a single independent candidate (barring Trump) get more than 5% of the pop vote in the 2024 US Pres election?
0.1
Manifold
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 4.5% or higher?
0.22
Manifold
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by June 30th 2024?
0.34
Manifold
Will any of {Jason Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander} win the NBA MVP 2024?
0.26
Manifold
Will the USA get the most Athletics Golds at the 2027 Special Olympics in Perth?
0.59
Manifold
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)
0.43
Manifold
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025?
0.37
Manifold
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
0.54
Manifold
Will a Yarvinist government exist by 2050?
0.11
Manifold
Will Black Mirror season 7 be released by the end of 2025?
0.52
Manifold
Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035
0.51
Manifold
By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?
0.39
Manifold
Will Simone Tebet be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.34
Manifold
Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026?
0.46
Manifold
Will climate change be discussed in all official 2024 U.S. Presidential debates?
0.82
Manifold
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
0.08
Manifold
Will there be a high-speed rail system connecting Sacramento to San Diego by end of 2050?
0.32
Manifold
Will there be a high-speed rail system connecting Sacramento to San Diego by end of 2040?
0.26
Manifold
Tesla kicked out of China by 2035
0.25
Manifold
Will at least one of the Beatles still be alive in 2030?
0.52
Manifold
Will Tarcísio de Freitas be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0.41
Manifold