text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will reddit have been "replaced" by July of 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Tiger Woods become a star soccer player in 2027? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a Large Language Model prove an important math theorem by end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️ | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Brightline West open for service before 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Brightline West open for service before 2029? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will someone with little to no bioengineering knowledge be able to use an AI to create a bioengineered virus by 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an impeachment or criminal conviction stop Trump from running in the 2024 presidential elections? (by end of 2024) | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Biden change his mind about running in 2024 by the end of 2023? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will a PS5 Pro release before the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a PS5 Slim release before the end of 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
What will the total off-Earth human population be at the end of 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will it be legal to buy Weed in Iceland by the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will it be legal to buy Weed in Norway by the end of 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will it be legal to buy Weed in Denmark by the end of 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will it be legal to buy Weed in Sweden by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a major Hollywood production firm announce using RNDR network in their workflow before 2025? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will any part of French Polynesia be a sovereign state before 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
What will be the total human population in 2040? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will "The Simpsons" be cancelled before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
What will be the total human population in 2030? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Terraform Industries still exist in 2026? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Total Human Population Fall Below Four Billion by End of 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will average life expectancy in Canada exceed 100 years before 2097? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Neuralink IPO by the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release a tokenizer with vocab size > 150k by end of 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the first human to achieve a FIDE chess rating of 3000 be genetically enhanced? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will 4-day workweeks be as common by 2026 as fully remote work is now? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Google bring back Google Glasses before 2026? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Slovakia beat Liechtenstein by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Poland beat Moldova by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Norway beat Cyprus by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Hungary beat Lithuania by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Belgium beat Estonia by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Ireland beat Gibraltar by 5+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Israel beat Andorra by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will England beat North Macedonia by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine beat Malta by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will a O(n^2.3) or faster matrix multiplication algorithm be discovered by the end of 2024 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a man made object sent into space after market creation leave the solar system before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Banksy be unmasked by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2035? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will 10% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, or Apple be broken up due to antitrust regulations by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Amazon's current CEO step down before the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Elon (parody) asked: in 2050 are you flying on Tesla Airlines? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will John Riccitiello be fired, forced to resign, or otherwise announce termination from Unity Technologies by end 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the City of Chicago have a Republican Mayor by 2040? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will walkable cities be a culture war flashpoint during 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028? | 0.09 | Manifold |
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Celtic music become popular before 2026? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Binance CEO CZ (Changpeng Zhao) resides in Russia before 2026 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the UK's 2030 ban on petrol and diesel cars be delayed? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will England beat Malta by 4+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will France beat Gibraltar by 5+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Switzerland beat Andorra by 3+ goals in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Republican presidential nominee win because of Trump's endorsement? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Texas be closer than Florida in the 2024 election? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will there be at least 1 million people (globally) that live physically underground by 2040? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 10+ operational stations before 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a foreign agent be discovered at OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind by the end of 2026? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Chile see economic growth in 2025? 🇨🇱 | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Argentina adopt U.S dollar as its legal tender by 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will any country leave the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank before 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Canada leave the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank before 2026? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Francis X. Suarez face criminal charges before 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Tesla introduces model which has a options choice giving >=600 mile range per charge before 2031 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Tesla introduces model which can be configured to have >=500 mile range per charge before 2029 | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a structural material before 2100? | 0.59 | Manifold |
If an international AI regulation body is created before 2025, is Yudkowsky invited to hold a position? | 0.15 | Manifold |
If an international AI regulation body is created before 2025, does Yudkowsky hold a position there? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027? | 0.73 | Manifold |
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