text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Chile see economic growth in 2024? 🇨🇱 | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Destiny talk to H3H3 before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump end his Presidential Bid before the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Lionel Messi play on turf in a competitive MLS or Leagues Cup match by the end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will it be revealed by 2030 that Bing Sydney's release was partially a way to promote AI safety? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will any of {Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic} win the NBA MVP 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Reddit be acquired by a FAAMG+NT or one of its founders by June 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will access to the internet become a human right by 2075? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will access to the internet become a human right in the US by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 5.5% or higher? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will GothamChess become a grandmaster by 2080? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Turkey bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Turkey bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Turkey bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Turkey bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Turkey bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Jason Kelce play for the Eagles during the 2024-2025 NFL season? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be any "10%+ in 24 hrs" event before the US presidential election in 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will another nuclear reactor begin operation in the U.S. before 2030 (not at Plant Vogtle)? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the PauseAI Discord reach 500 members before 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Andreessen unblock Dwarkesh before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be available in Sweden before 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be available in Sweden before July 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in Sweden before May 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer before 2026? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer at or before WWDC 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer before 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer at or before WWDC 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will it be proven that nxn magic squares of distinct perfect square numbers exist for all n ≥ 4 by end of 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in the UK before 2025? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in the UK before WWDC 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in the UK before May 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in the UK before April 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before 2025? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before WWDC 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before May 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before April 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
By 2030, will Nintendo announce a Hyrule Warriors game based on Tears of the Kingdom? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump still be married by the end of 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the US female labor force participation rate be greater in May 2024 than May 2023? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will an open-source diffusion-based LLM break top-10 in public leaderboards by June 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Eurovision 2024 introduce changes that give less power to the jury? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Manifold start charging interest on outstanding loans before 2031? | 0.06 | Manifold |
During the course of the 2024 presidential election process, will any significant world flipping event occur? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be married in 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Images assumed to be deepfakes/AI-generated unless proven otherwise before 2030 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before Q3 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Israel bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Israel bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the operation of the TurkStream pipeline be interrupted due to physical damage before 2024 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
No regular public passenger flights from the US to Taiwan for a month, before 2039 | 0.5 | Manifold |
At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037 | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will speedrunner zylenox be found cheating before 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will there be a famous incident where someone slips and falls on a banana peel between now and October 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's Monthly Active Users go below 4000 by July 31st? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's Monthly Active Users go below 4000 by June 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will the war in Ukraine be officially over by december 2025 ? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Super high speed travel: 90 minutes from NYC to Tokyo before 2047 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Peter Daszak be a defendant in a US, UK or EU trial related to his professional global health work before 2040 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have a team offsite in space by 2050? | 0.11 | Manifold |
If Vladimir Putin loses power before the end of 2024, will Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within a year? | 0.53 | Manifold |
If Vladimir Putin loses power before the end of 2024, will Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within six months? | 0.56 | Manifold |
If Vladimir Putin loses power before the end of 2024, will Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within a month? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will there be any passenger Jumbo Jets (A380, B747) still flying by 2035? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will an AI model kill, or be used by/enable a non-state actor to kill, a US citizen/resident by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will a digital address (like an email address) be legally required for US citizens by 2080? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 10 dogs on the moon by 2200? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a human that is genetically modified to see in complete darkness by 2100? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be legally recognized three-party civil unions/marriages in the US by 2100? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will there be a plumbing company that has fully automated services by 2080? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will fully automatic vehicles be allowed on all roads in Illinois by 2060? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a digital address (like an email address) be legally required for US citizens by 2050? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will both main parties pick woman as their candidates for the 2028 presidental election? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Throughout the 2028 presidental debates, will Ukraine be mentioned more times than Taiwan? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a democracy or flawed democracy in 2034? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Sweden adopt the euro by the end of 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will HaruInvest default before the end of 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump die before 2024 U.S. elections? 🇺🇸 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
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