text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Brightline West open for service before 2028? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will anyone be at least 130 years old by 2072? | 0.41 | Manifold |
At least 1 G7 Country will have been under a fascist authoritarian regime for at least 6 months by 2035 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the California 2024 budget include more for public transit than is proposed as of June 11, 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat flip any state or district not listed here in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a Republican flip any state or district not listed here in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Portugal beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Slovakia beat Iceland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Czech Republic beat Faroe Islands in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Georgia beat Cyprus in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Belgium beat Austria in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Albania beat Moldova in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Norway beat Scotland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Hungary beat Montenegro in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Azerbaijan beat Estonia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Luxembourg beat Liechtenstein in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Bulgaria beat Lithuania in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Wales beat Armenia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine beat North Macedonia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Turkey beat Latvia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Kosovo beat Romania in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Greece beat Ireland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Denmark beat Northern Ireland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be a talking point from any of the presidential candidates during the 2024 election? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Kari Lake be elected to be a US Senator for Arizona in 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Kari Lake be the Arizona Republican candidate for the US Senate in 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Japan has a female prime minister before 2040 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Atlus game 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' release before July 1st, 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold start charging interest on loans before 2031? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Kylian Mbappé play for Real Madrid during the 2024/2025 season? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029 | 0.87 | Manifold |
David Goggins stays safe through 2033 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the majority of Western democracies become fascist dictatorships by 2033? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Riyadh, Saudi Arabia before the end of 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will US users be able to buy Ether on Coinbase in 2025? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will US users be able to buy Cardano on Coinbase in 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2040? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will anyone be at least 140 years old by 2072? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will BRL (Brazilian Real) fall below 0.1 USD before 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB by the end of 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will NYT independently confirm Grusch's alien tech claims before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Trump appear in the first RNC 2024 presidential debate? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will California vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will West Virginia vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Missouri vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will Indiana vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Texas vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Arizona vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina all vote the same way in the 2024 election? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will any whistleblower face criminal charges for disclosing UFO information before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Biden pardon Trump before the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 286 (1/25) or less as of 2024-12-31? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will >1 specimen of Pseudoliparis amblystomopsis, or the hadal snailfish - be alive in captivity for > 1 year, by 2035 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will at least 3 Pacific barreleye fish be successfully kept in an aquarium for > 1 year, by 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Christopher Wray still be Director of the FBI one month after the 2025 presidential inauguration? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Congress defund the DOJ or FBI before 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will LLM hallucinations be "largely eliminated" by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Joe Manchin come within ten points of winning in the 2024 West Virginia Senate election? | 0.43 | Manifold |
How many electoral votes will Biden win in 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will an AI-generated song reach the Billboard Hot 100 song charts by the end of 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Finland beat Slovenia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | 1 | Manifold |
Will DeSantis and Pence become running mates in 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Brazil hyperinflation by 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a noteworthy Republican politician claim that the germ theory of disease is false before June 8, 2028? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will any Ariel School UFO Incident witness withdraw their statements before 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will a video confirmed by original witnesses showing creatures from the Varginha UFO incident emerge by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Battelle Memorial Institute referenced in mainstream media in regards to UFO/UAP investigations before 2025 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Kalshi announce they intend to shut down before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the north pole be ice free by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Revenue be above $4000 for the month of June? | 0 | Manifold |
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 1% of the world electricity by June 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Revenue be above $5000 for the month of June? | 0 | Manifold |
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will anyone beat the current Munro-bagging record before 2027? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all vote together in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.52 | Manifold |
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