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Will Brightline West open for service before 2028?
0.31
Manifold
Will anyone be at least 130 years old by 2072?
0.41
Manifold
At least 1 G7 Country will have been under a fascist authoritarian regime for at least 6 months by 2035
0.09
Manifold
Will the California 2024 budget include more for public transit than is proposed as of June 11, 2023?
0.99
Manifold
Will a Democrat flip any state or district not listed here in the 2024 presidential election?
0.1
Manifold
Will a Republican flip any state or district not listed here in the 2024 presidential election?
0.07
Manifold
Will Portugal beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Slovakia beat Iceland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Czech Republic beat Faroe Islands in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Georgia beat Cyprus in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Belgium beat Austria in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Albania beat Moldova in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Norway beat Scotland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Hungary beat Montenegro in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Azerbaijan beat Estonia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Luxembourg beat Liechtenstein in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Bulgaria beat Lithuania in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Wales beat Armenia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Ukraine beat North Macedonia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Turkey beat Latvia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Kosovo beat Romania in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
0
Manifold
Will Greece beat Ireland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will Denmark beat Northern Ireland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?
0.94
Manifold
Will Bitcoin be a talking point from any of the presidential candidates during the 2024 election?
0.45
Manifold
Will Kari Lake be elected to be a US Senator for Arizona in 2024?
0.25
Manifold
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047
0.5
Manifold
Will Kari Lake be the Arizona Republican candidate for the US Senate in 2024?
0.66
Manifold
Japan has a female prime minister before 2040
0.41
Manifold
Will Atlus game 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' release before July 1st, 2024?
0.5
Manifold
Will Manifold start charging interest on loans before 2031?
0.13
Manifold
Will Kylian Mbappé play for Real Madrid during the 2024/2025 season?
0.77
Manifold
Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029
0.87
Manifold
David Goggins stays safe through 2033
0.59
Manifold
Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025?
0.06
Manifold
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
0.17
Manifold
Will the majority of Western democracies become fascist dictatorships by 2033?
0.5
Manifold
Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Riyadh, Saudi Arabia before the end of 2024?
0.62
Manifold
Will US users be able to buy Ether on Coinbase in 2025?
0.82
Manifold
Will US users be able to buy Cardano on Coinbase in 2025?
0.42
Manifold
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
0.06
Manifold
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2040?
0.35
Manifold
Will anyone be at least 140 years old by 2072?
0.24
Manifold
Will BRL (Brazilian Real) fall below 0.1 USD before 2030?
0.41
Manifold
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB by the end of 2024?
0.68
Manifold
Will NYT independently confirm Grusch's alien tech claims before 2024?
0.03
Manifold
Will Trump appear in the first RNC 2024 presidential debate?
0.27
Manifold
Will California vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.98
Manifold
Will West Virginia vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.88
Manifold
Will Missouri vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.97
Manifold
Will Indiana vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.87
Manifold
Will Texas vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.85
Manifold
Will Arizona vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
0.52
Manifold
Will Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina all vote the same way in the 2024 election?
0.24
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?
0.37
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
0.38
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
0.37
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
0.36
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025?
0.28
Manifold
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2024?
0.12
Manifold
Will any whistleblower face criminal charges for disclosing UFO information before 2025?
0.07
Manifold
Will Biden pardon Trump before the end of 2024?
0.07
Manifold
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 286 (1/25) or less as of 2024-12-31?
0.67
Manifold
Will >1 specimen of Pseudoliparis amblystomopsis, or the hadal snailfish - be alive in captivity for > 1 year, by 2035
0.4
Manifold
Will at least 3 Pacific barreleye fish be successfully kept in an aquarium for > 1 year, by 2035?
0.5
Manifold
Will Christopher Wray still be Director of the FBI one month after the 2025 presidential inauguration?
0.5
Manifold
Will Congress defund the DOJ or FBI before 2025?
0.36
Manifold
Will LLM hallucinations be "largely eliminated" by 2025?
0.17
Manifold
Will Joe Manchin come within ten points of winning in the 2024 West Virginia Senate election?
0.43
Manifold
How many electoral votes will Biden win in 2024?
0.46
Manifold
Will an AI-generated song reach the Billboard Hot 100 song charts by the end of 2025?
0.61
Manifold
Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?
0.79
Manifold
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
0.59
Manifold
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
0.5
Manifold
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
0.47
Manifold
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
0.59
Manifold
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
0.5
Manifold
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
0.45
Manifold
Will Finland beat Slovenia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?
1
Manifold
Will DeSantis and Pence become running mates in 2024?
0.12
Manifold
Brazil hyperinflation by 2030?
0.15
Manifold
Will a noteworthy Republican politician claim that the germ theory of disease is false before June 8, 2028?
0.22
Manifold
Will any Ariel School UFO Incident witness withdraw their statements before 2030?
0.47
Manifold
Will a video confirmed by original witnesses showing creatures from the Varginha UFO incident emerge by 2030?
0.16
Manifold
Battelle Memorial Institute referenced in mainstream media in regards to UFO/UAP investigations before 2025
0.41
Manifold
Will Kalshi announce they intend to shut down before 2024?
0.07
Manifold
Will the north pole be ice free by 2030?
0.22
Manifold
Will Manifold Revenue be above $4000 for the month of June?
0
Manifold
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?
0.35
Manifold
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?
0.34
Manifold
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
0.55
Manifold
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
0.36
Manifold
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 1% of the world electricity by June 2025?
0.45
Manifold
Will Manifold Revenue be above $5000 for the month of June?
0
Manifold
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?
0.8
Manifold
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?
0.78
Manifold
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025?
0.77
Manifold
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2024?
0.5
Manifold
Will anyone beat the current Munro-bagging record before 2027?
0.94
Manifold
Will Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all vote together in the 2024 presidential election?
0.52
Manifold