text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Trump be required to wear an ankle monitor & do it? [Before 2025] | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Maine in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Iowa in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Ohio in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Maine's second district in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Nebraska's 2nd district in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 Republican National Convention? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Cornel West receive >= 0.1% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Michigan in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Nevada in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win North Carolina in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Wisconsin in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Georgia in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Bitfinex? (Before 2030) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Netherlands foreign aid spend in 2024 be >0.5% GNI? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in travis county be more than 750,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in travis county be more than 350,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in travis county be more than 500,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 1,500,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 1,000,000 USD in Q3 2029? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will destiny talk to AOC before June 10th 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Technological telepathy practically achieved by 2050 | 0.42 | Manifold |
The majority of my markets regarding quantum technology would resolve yes if all resolved by 2200. | 0.5 | Manifold |
Quantum computer based in organic chemistry is created by 2050 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be a lab-grown hair transplant by 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
How many states will flip in the 2024 election? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will oil cost more than $100/barrel before 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will AMZN reach $150 by any point by 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050 | 0.69 | Manifold |
AI to assist in designing "Enlightment guides" by 2100. | 0.8 | Manifold |
Quantum Breakthrough before 2050 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Ansible Device to rely on quantum properties with alloys made from exotic elements heavier than 100 before 2100 | 0.33 | Manifold |
AI helps design practical real life "Ansible" device(faster than light communication) before 2050 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040 | 0.4 | Manifold |
AI plays large role in determining how to mix heavy elements into alloys to take advantage of quantum properties by 2030 | 0.68 | Manifold |
JFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will my roommate see someone using an Apple AR Headset in a public cafe before 2025? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Catalonia hold another independence vote by 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Worldcoin report a billion user signups before 2026 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Any country will/have launched a nuke and non-human intelligence will or have disabled it by 2030 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Emad Mostaque (founder of Stability AI) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will there be a state of Jefferson by 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will STF rule against the temporal framework for indigenous lands before 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Manifold create an API call to get/read loot box transactions before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Scott Wiener be elected to Congress in 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will RFK Jr win delegates from New Hampshire in the 2024 Democratic party primary? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Google Trends activity for 'AI' be higher on July 1st 2025 then it is today? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson's Google Trend interest be at least 3% any point in July 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Legal requirements around avatar race presentation in the US or EU before 2046 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Tucker on Twitter episodes in July 2024 average at least 50,000 likes? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Self driving only vehicles available in California before 2044 | 0.78 | Manifold |
California requires visible sign of self driving capabilities of cars before 2044 | 0.66 | Manifold |
California legally relaxes seat belt laws in response to improved safety through 2043 | 0.26 | Manifold |
cantclosevim will turn into a Destiny anti-fan before 2024 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 United States presidential election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Doug Burgum be on the Republican Party's presidential ticket in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 9595? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2525? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Android assistant which can answer repetitive questions for me available free before 2031 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Ng start to take AI extinction risk seriously before 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the Republican candidate win every county in West Virginia in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the Republican candidate win every county in Oklahoma in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will existential risk from AI be a topic during the 2024 US presidential debates? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the dearMoon project launch to the moon in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Apple's VR headset become a mainstream product like video projectors before 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Eqypt bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Eqypt bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Eqypt bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
SillyTavern Forks to create AI companion application by 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Neuralink the company to define relationship between thought and quantum thought by 2050 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050 | 0.18 | Manifold |
AI(machine intelligence) found to control Alien greys by 2050 | 0.59 | Manifold |
UFO special materials found to be caused because of relativistic quantum chemistry by 2040 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Chemicals with unknown properties found to play large role in UFOs by 2050 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Alien Greys Proven to be synthetic bio beings by 2030 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Quantum material properties affected by brain thought by 2050 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be more highly competitive states in 2024 than 2020? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will any state be decided by <0.5% in the 2024 election? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will any state be decided by <1% in the 2024 election? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will there be a version of Apple Vision that costs LESS than $3499 by the time we can order one? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Battery Electric cars outsell Internal Combustion Engines in Great Britain before May 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
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