text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will more Apple Vision Pro headsets sell than Meta Quest 3 headsets in H2 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump lose a single state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Apple release a Vision VR Headset under $1,600 by the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Apple make a "homepod with a screen" by the end of 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro be available in China on 1-1-2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will at least 2 presidential candidates talk on the same Twitter space before the 2024 US election | 0.69 | Manifold |
Apple Vision Pro discontinued by 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the IRS successfully launch its direct e-file pilot before the end of 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 election be an exact repeat of 2020? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Apple Vision Pro release in 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be seen in an Apple Vision Pro before 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will @Mira and @Catnee go on a date by 2026-01-01 (given no doom until then)? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Iran bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Iran bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Iran bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Isomorphic Labs release anything significant before 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Isomorphic Labs release anything significant before 2025? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will an open sourced SOTA LLM be trained on Intel hardware by 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there be a version of Apple Vision Pro that costs more than $3499 by the time we can order one? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a human die in space by 2035? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Apple will announce a gaming console by the end of 2024. | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Dave Ramsey (Christian radio host) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the UFO retrieval program claims by whistleblower David Grusch be viewed as accurate in June of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Russia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Russia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Russia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the DoD confirm they have recovered and currently retain intact UAPs not of terrestrial origin by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will most dubbed live-action movies/tv shows on Netflix be deepfaked by 2030? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will climate change still be a controversial topic in the public eye by 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $5B revenue in 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $1B revenue in 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $5B revenue in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $3B revenue in 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models, generate more than $2B revenue in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the highest grossing movie (worldwide) of 2024 be rated pg-13 by the MPAA? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 5% or higher? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Cornel West receive >= 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Cornel West receive >= 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will >50% of the US population own a Vision Pro or other mixed reality headset in 2028? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Ricardo Nunes be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will someone successfully introduce a breeding population of feral penguins (>10) in the Northern Hemisphere by 2035? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Democrats continue to gain vote share among Suburban voters in 2024 Presidential election | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Republicans continue to gain vote share among Hispanics in 2024 Presidential election | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be a sub 25 Minutes Any% Celeste speedrun before 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities) | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities) | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will YouTube bring back the dislike count by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Vietnam bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Vietnam bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Vietnam bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Indonesia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Indonesia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Indonesia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2025? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Singapore bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Singapore bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand bring a new fighter jet into service by the end of 2035? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Bybit? (Before 2030) | 0.67 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders (D)) | 0.36 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg (D)) | 0.47 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D)) | 0.35 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom (D)) | 0.48 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | 0.44 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden (D)) | 0.6 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum (R)) | 0.36 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence (R)) | 0.31 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley (R)) | 0.49 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis (R)) | 0.51 | Manifold |
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