text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | 0.36 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy (R)) | 0.4 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott (R)) | 0.49 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson (R)) | 0.45 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder (R)) | 0.33 | Manifold |
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie (R)) | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will a bitcoin be worth $1B by 2038? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | 0.05 | Manifold |
By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned? | 0.3 | Manifold |
In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk Giselle by the end of 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Epic Games Store give away Red Dead Redemption 2 before the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2033 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Russia control Transnistria by the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will a US president explicitly apologize for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen stay the top-rated chess player through 2025? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will the Gates Foundation give more than $100mn to AI Safety work before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Asa Hutchison any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Nicky Haley win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Chris Christie win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Ron Desantis be on the GOP ticket in 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Google update/remove the braindead restrictions on adaptive charging before end of 2024 ? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the FC-31 have entered service in China by the end of 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold stop ruining my post saves and undoing edits before 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the next 3D Zelda game after Tears Of The Kingdom release before the end of 2027? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Sheinbaum be selected as MORENA's 2024 presidential candidate? | 0.36 | Manifold |
If 538 and Nate Silver both release 2024 presidential election models, will Silver be more uncertain? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia be world's most valuable semiconductor company by market cap in the end of June 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican presidential election? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Russia join the European Union by 2050? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will 10% of Boston city die in any year from disaster, before 2035? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2040? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2050? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2100? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will artificial gravity be generated by spinning in space before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will there be a Series 26 of Taskmaster UK before 2035? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Australia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Australia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will India bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will India bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will India bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will India bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will India bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Turkey Default on Its Debt By The End of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will South Korea bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will South Korea bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Japan bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Japan bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2027? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the US bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2027? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the US bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the US bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
If Nate Silver releases a 2024 election model, will it be more accurate than 538's model? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026? | 0.37 | Manifold |
In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will Nintendo announce a sequel to Tears of the Kingdom? | 0.4 | Manifold |
GPT-4 performance and compute efficiency from a simple architecture before 2026 | 0.34 | Manifold |
How far into 2024 will Yakuza 8/Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth be released? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will any player other than Magnus Carlsen be rated above 2800 (classical chess, live rating) now till the end of 2023? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Google Bard or new Bing start including persuasive advertising in their answers for monetization before end 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI report that it's no longer heavily GPU limited in 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Quaise Energy dig a borehole before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Christopher Nolan refer to The Precipice or Toby Ord before the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will a Taskmaster “World Champions” be aired before 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will a Taskmaster UK “Champion of Champion of Champions” be aired before 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
will lav make a live appearance on the destiny stream by 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
will the zherka bridge be rebuilt by 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin hit $300k before 2040-01-23? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will 10% of London die in any year from disaster, before 2035? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Adnan Syed returns to jail before 2040 (serial podcast) | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will someone find a truth-telling vector which modifies completions in a range of situations by 2024-10-24? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a baseball stadium be built on the site of the Tropicana Hotel in Las Vegas before December 31, 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 10% in 2023? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Kelvin Kitpum break the marathon world record before 2025? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Kelvin Kitpum break the marathon world record before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025 | 0.44 | Manifold |
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Gate.io be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Gate.io collapse before the end of 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
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