text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the U.S. create a new federal agency to regulate AI by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Elon musk university before 2036 | 0.34 | Manifold |
If Labour wins the 2025 U.K. general election, will an AI kill 10% of humans before 2032? | 0.13 | Manifold |
If Conservatives win the 2025 U.K. general election, will an AI kill 10% of humans before 2032? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will superhot rock geothermal energy be used by 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
BTCUSDT Will Touch 27500 Level By Tomorrow 6Pm? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will someone other than Biden win the 2024 American Samoa Democratic presidential caucuses? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will stratospheric aerosol injection be deployed in order to combat climate change before 2040? | 0.68 | Manifold |
More than 5% of Swedish single family houses will have their own energy storage units installed by 2030 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2035 be in the United States? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the value of the "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" index be >110 on June 1, 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the value of the "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE" index be >110 on June 1, 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2036? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2033? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2028? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Rishi Sunak publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin's price be above $27000 on June 30th? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on June 30th? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on June 30th? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2500 on June 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2300 on June 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2200 on June 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2100 on June 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Cloned historical figure born before 2036 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will US-based white-collar workers across multiple sectors start unionizing by the end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Democrats reclaim control of the House & Senate in the 2024 election? | 0.19 | Manifold |
By end of 2039, will a child will be born whose genetic parents are both babies/prepubescent? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will any US state secede before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernatorial election? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Congress to win the 2024 Elections with a majority | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will there be more Interpreters and Translators jobs in the U.S. in 2025 than in 2021? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will any major retailer start accepting Bitcoin with the Lightning Network to save on Visa/Mastercard fees before 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2029? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) go bankrupt by the end of 2025 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by KuCoin? (Before 2030) | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Primož Roglič start the 2024 Tour de France? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will either Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon add Bitcoin to their balance sheets before the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the linked paper on positive effects of soleus muscle activation have more than 10 citations by 5/30/2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Japan successfully beam solar power from space by 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the CR929 fly before 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to generate an interactive web front-end by the end of 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the substance Psilocybin be removed from Schedule 1 in the UK by the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Peter Sagan compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Ko Wen-je come second in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will someone who has never won a Grand Slam men's singles tournament before 2024 win one in 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will this website be online by 2050? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be a male UFC Champion from East Asia before 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will there be a male UFC Champion from East Asia before 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Alexander Skarsgård win an Oscar for his acting before 2031? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add a User Portfolio Sort that orders markets by current sale value by 2024? (Current Total Value - Loans) | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will someone Loot Box their way into this market before 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Manifold implement the ability to give negative feedback to the "Home" suggestion algorithm by 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Yann LeCun change his mind about AI risk before 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will factory farming still be legal in most countries by 2050? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the CR929 fly before 2027? | 0.04 | Manifold |
How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2031? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Catalonia leave Spain before 2040? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Quebec leave Canada before 2040? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Hong Kong leave China before 2040? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will any EU country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will TPP candidate Ko Wen-je get more than 50% of the vote in Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will TPP candidate Ko Wen-je get more than 40% of the vote in Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will TPP candidate Ko Wen-je get more than 30% of the vote in Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will TPP candidate Ko Wen-je get more than 20% of the vote in Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will TPP candidate Ko Wen-je get more than 10% of the vote in Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan purchase fighter jets from a country which is not the US before 2035? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be a female U.S. president and a female U.S. vice president concurrently in office by 2050? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will SADR (Western Sahara) be a sovereign state before 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
In the 2024 republican presidential primary will a candidate other that Trump or DeSantis be considered front-runner? | 0.21 | Manifold |
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